5.17.15: Which Candidate Can Lead America's Rebuilding?

Just when you think you know what you're talking about, Jeb Bush comes out and has the highest profile worst week of any presidential candidate. In last week's column, discussing “Meet the Press's” ‘donor series’ featuring Sheldon Adelson, we had said that Jeb Bush seemed to be the safe bet based on what Sheldon Adelson was looking for in a candidate. But after this week, Jeb Bush may have really taken himself out of the running. We disagree with Chuck Todd when he said of Mr. Bush’s statements today that right now it is relevant but down the line not so much. We think that this will continue to be relevant throughout the entire primary season and it's definitely going to loom large in the first debate, whether Jeb Bush participates in that first one or not.

And the reason is because video exists. Megyn Kelly of Fox News asked Mr. Bush if he knew then what he knows now, would he have made the same decision as his brother, George W and gone to war. Jeb Bush, for his part, was prepared for an Iraq question but not phrased that way – we’ll give him that. He had prepared for, would you have done the same with the intelligence available at the time? We fully understand that he either misheard it or interpreted it wrong or somehow heard the question that he wanted to hear, but in our opinion, either way the answer should have been ‘no.’  The conservative-friendly answer that he should have given in the first place was ‘knowing what we know now, we would have not gone into Iraq, but four days later was plenty of time for other Republican candidates to attack him from all flanks.

With the exception of Jeb Bush, all the other candidates have Monday morning quarterbacked the Iraq War efficiently enough for Americans know where each one stands. So instead of ‘relevant now, not relevant later’ this could be the week we look back and say Jeb Bush took himself out of the running.

In the interview with Rand Paul, he didn't go as far as to say that we are better off with dictators in the Middle East, but certainly affirmed as much. Let's face it, we let the genie out of the bottle in the Middle East and the radicals killed the genie. The only thing that we agreed with Sarah Fagan today was that Rand Paul was asking the right question of Hillary Clinton, which was ‘knowing what you know now would you go into Libya?’

Getting back to Iraq for a moment, the reason that we had this Delta force operation over the weekend goes back to George W. Bush's decision to invade, as will all operations moving forward against ISIS.  We agree that the symbolism and psychological effective of this successful attack where Delta force soldiers went deep into ISIS territory, killed their chief financier, grabbed a wealth of information and captured his wife is incredibly significant… and incredibly risky. For the U.S. military to commit to such an operation, the CIA must have been convinced that knowing what this man knew was vital in defeating ISIS .If one U.S. soldier were captured the consequences of that would have escalated military involvement tenfold within a month.

Returning to presidential candidates for a moment and thinking about the foreign policy and domestic economic challenges that the United States faces, we examine the full presidential field of candidates - both Republican and Democrat. We don't see any of these individuals being able to significantly move the needle in a way that positively affects the lives of middle-class, and aspiring middle-class, Americans.

The panel today was absolutely right about Hillary Clinton in that she has not put forward a vision for where she wants to take this country. She's not out there answering questions we don't know what her ideas are. Helene Cooper she is seeing Mrs. Clinton making the same mistakes as she did in 2008, which is disturbing and has to be really discouraging for all of her supporters. That there is no alternative challenge for her is a major problem. And in terms of the Republican field, we look across the entire scope and don't see one individual that is capable of leading all of America - not just the Republican Party, but all Americans. We just don't see it.

It is beyond our comprehension that not one of these candidates has come out and unequivocally said that we need to improve the infrastructure of this country.  The United States has to reorganize its priorities and sacrifice to do this.  Since Republicans control both the House and Senate, we comprehend their wantonness to cut taxes, but there are so many tax dollars at the top of the chain that are not collected that could help this country rebuild its infrastructure.

A graphic on today's program outlined that most of the train travel in this country is done in Democratic states, making Republicans less inclined to vote for train transportation. This is ridiculous and divisive. Most train travel occurs in California and the Northeast corridor. The Northeast corridor is responsible for 1/5 of the economy - 20%. California is the eighth largest economy in the world. Yet, our leaders do not seem to understand the implication of those statistics, and the necessity of this public transportation. In these terms, they just suck.

The sad, end result of the Amtrak train crash in Philadelphia is Washington voices such as House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) rhetorically asking why we would extend funding for Amtrak and Republicans accusing Democrats of politicizing the issue. This was political as soon as it happened.   

What American people are really saying is that we don’t want it to be political; we just want better, safer ways to get around and nicer trains.  

Senator Corey Booker (D-NJ) is on to the right idea.

Panel: Tom Friedman, The New York Times; David Axelrod, fmr. senior Advisor to President Obama; Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Sara Fagen, fmr. White House Political Director 

5.10.15: Behind Every Other Industrialized Nation... Almost

Given the fact that some of our Congressional leaders have openly admitted to never using email, which is to sing nothing of social media, it's not surprising that ISIS has a more effective presence and messaging when it comes to social media in its initiative to recruit followers. As Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) outlined, there are ISIS supporters in all 50 states according to the FBI, and you can imagine that most of those supporters have been contacted through social media. She also explained that it takes 30 agents to monitor and follow a single terrorist suspect. Well, we hope that they can survey of more than one person at a time because if that's not the case then the FBI is in effect greatly outnumbered.

On June first, the Patriot Act expires so this month Congress will be debating the renewal of this legislation. Obviously the key sticking point is the NSA data surveillance. The bottom line there is no matter what law is passed, what amendment is made to that part of the law, and no matter what court deems unconstitutional the NSA is still going to collect data. That's all you need to know so you as an individual must act accordingly with this knowledge and awareness.

In terms of Meet The Press's constant omnipresent topic, presidential politics, what does this mean?  This brings us to two of the program's feature series - one old, one new.  In the 'Meet The Candidate' series, Chuck Todd spoke with Carly Fiorina, fmr. CEO of Hewlett-Packard.  As we've said before many times in this column, Carly Fiorino is not qualified to be president, but we will say that she  defended herself quite well when Chuck Todd grilled her on her record as CEO of HP. As Mrs. Fiorina described it, her firing was a board room brawl... that she lost. Look at it this way - a group of business leaders looked at another business leader running a company that they have money invested in, and came to the consensus conclusion that Mrs. Fiorina was a weak link and had to go. But overall, throughout the course of the interview today, we realized that Mrs. Fiorina knows full weel she has no real shot at the presidency so really her goal is an advisory role and or potential cabinet position in the cabinet of administration provided the eventual Republican nominee becomes president.

So if not Carly Fiorina, then who will be the Republican nominee? This brings us to the new feature series introduced this week on "Meet the Press" - The Donor Series focusing on the billionaire donors that enable all kinds of candidates to put their hat in the ring for the office of the president of the United States. Apparently, we have enough of these people now with high enough profiles that it is worthy of a whole feature series, and first up is casino magnate Sheldon Adelson. It's people like this who will at the very least decide the Republican nominee for president. From Mr. Todd's description Mr. Adelson is fiscally conservative but socially liberal which would indicate that he is actually looking for a candidate that more or less resembles Bill Clinton. Nevada veteran political reporter Mark Ralston said that the billionaire's criticism of the Clintons has been muted, not like his very vocal dislike of Barack Obama.  But here's the rub, Hillary Clinton the candidate is going to run way to the left of Bill Clinton's positions as president so with that in mind there is no way Mr. Adelson wants Mrs. Clinton as president and has said as much.  Mr. Adelson spent $100 million trying to defeat Barack Obama and still was unable to do it. This time around he'll be much more careful with his money not propping up hollowed out candidates like Newt Gingrich who was as a candidate all surface and completely no substance. Chuck Todd and Mr. Ralston, who is great for this kind of perspective, threw around names like Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. But as Mr. Ralston explained, Mr. Adelson wants to see how candidates perform first. But Rubio and Walker don't quite fit the bill for Mr. Adelson so what it seems he's looking for, to use his parlance, is a safer bet... Jeb Bush.

There's a lot of money on the line for these candidates who want to swim in the billionaire pool. What really hurts is that we're talking about a $3 trillion election and billionaire donors when in the last segment they were discussing the inability of families to afford quality child care, that mother's do not receive paid maternity leave, which is a travesty. In a survey conducted by the Save The Children Foundation, their index showed that the United States is number 33 on a list of countries that rank good places to be a mom. (Norway was number one.) That disappointing statistic was following by the ever too familiar refrain delivered by Mr. Todd that "the United States is behind every other industrialized nation" in terms of conditions for motherhood.  "Behind every other industrialized nation" seems to be a place that the United States has solidified for itself, maybe with the one exception of wasting money on elections. 

Panel: Matt Bai, Yahoo News; Kathleen Parker, The Washington Post; Ruth Marcus, The Washington Post; Michael Steele, former RNC Chair.

5.3.15: Baltimore and a Wake Up

Could the mayor of Baltimore Stephanie Rawlings-Blake overall handled the the protests, unrest, and violence better? Of course, but it serves little if no purpose to to Monday morning quarterback her every move, if you’re not on the ground seeing it for yourself. The only exception would be her statement earlier in the week, in which she implied that she would give ‘space’ to the protesters for destructive purposes. She walked back the statement several times, including on today’s program, but that was clearly liberalism taken one step too far inasmuch it’s good to give people the right to protest and comprehending why they are angry but destroying property does no one any good. Mayor Rawlings-Blake has seen her profile in the Democratic party ascend as of late, but disappointingly (but like most all of us) she has been better when she’s in control of her message, but not so good when she has to answer questions under pressure. That aside, it’s now the imperative of the mayor to bring the city back to healing and heading in the right direction.

For always giving answers that, in fact, answer nothing ever, it was almost refreshing to hear the Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) agree with Chuck Todd that the violence that police have committed and discrimination that they've shown toward the black community is at a crisis level because it is.

But as it was aptly noted, no one can agree on what the problem is, but the ‘problems’ are systemic. NPR's April Ryan mentioned that a holistic approach is needed to solve the many problems, and that’s true but a good start would be first respecting that black males’ lives matter and then doing everything we can to help people find employment.  We’re strong believers in the concept that having a job instills a sense of dignity in oneself.  Author Wes Moore explained that the definition of what is a family has to change suggesting a network of caring adults from parents to caretakers to teacher that take an interest in children because the structure of the family has changed so much.  

Mr. Boehner said that if the problems that exist in the inner cities or simply a matter of money, these problems would have been solved long ago. But then some one duly notes that the United States invests more money into the Middle East for reconstruction and training than it does here at home, and whole thing just makes you shake your head.  Why it is that the one thing that everyone in the middle class and below knows is that it’s simply more and more difficult to get by because wages hardly increase.  It’s time that our elected officials start allocating more resources to our own constituents instead of into places where most all Americans will never go.

Everyone is hoping that seeing Baltimore on fire for a week will signal the beginning of the end of indiscriminant police brutality and inner city uprisings – for healing and change to start.  However, we’re afraid that this is only the beginning and that Baltimore is another larger lid-shaking bubble - one that has followed Florida and Ferguson and New York and North Charleston - in an ever more disruptively boiling pot.  This is Baltimore and a wake up.

Panel: Tom Brokaw; NBC News; April Ryan, NPR; Kim Strassel; The Wall Street Journal; Wes Moore, Author

On a lighter note… Ms. Strassel said that is not unlikely that one of the individuals declaring a candidacy for president this week could remain relevant late into the primary process.  Let’s hope her assessment is incorrect for all our sakes.  Declaring a presidential run this week will be Mr. Ben Carson, a brilliant neurosurgeon who makes statements so ridiculous on a variety of topics, you’re simply not sure if he’ll just say anything extreme right wingers want to hear or if he’s really that stupid about everything… except neurosurgery.  Then there’s Carly Fiorina, fmr. CEO of Hewlett Packard and failed senatorial candidate.  Ms. Fiorina did such a good job as head of HP that they paid her $19 million to leave, and since then the company has never really recovered.  At this point, it’s been forced to split into two separate companies to survive.   Lastly, there is former Governor and FOX News talk show host Mike Huckabee, whose first order of business if elected president of the United States would be to repeal Sharia law all together. 

4.26.15: No Absolute Certainty...Certainly

In the wake of two hostages being killed, and Italian and American respectively, in a drone strike targeting and Al Qaeda stronghold in Pakistan, there is renewed focus on the Drone War.  This is one of Pres. Barack Obama's great failures during his presidency. Under President Bush there were 50 drone strikes but under Pres. Obama there have been 475. The use of drones in warfare opens up a Pandora's box of bad precedents.

Micah Zenko, a drone expert at the Council of Foreign Relations, said that the spread of drone technology and usage is slowly progressing to other countries. The British and the Israelis use drones, but soon in perhaps 5 to 10 years down the line other countries will have drone technology, which opens up a plethora of scenarios. For example, what if Russia starts using drones and then Russian hackers take over the computers that control the drones and start flying them over and firing missiles on places that send the globe into a panic? Will other countries start flying drones towards the United States that it then has to shoot down, firing missiles from within its own country, to protect itself. It seems crazy, but if you can imagine it so easily only says it could be a possible reality.

But that's future semi-horror/fantasy. In the here and now, the worst thing that Mr. Zenko outlined was that drone strikes are the calling card of US foreign policy, the face of US foreign policy. This not-so-secret perpetual state of warfare through drone use hampers the United State’s ability to negotiate and influence other countries. Granted, the United States isn’t truly negotiating with countries where they’re using drones, despite its ‘partnership’ with Pakistan, where many missions are directed. 

Tom Donilon, former national security advisor for Pres. Obama, explained very carefully that in the assessment of this target, “an enemy facility in the Aghan theater of war,” it was the facility itself were what was under scrutiny, not the identities of the individuals in the facility.  In that context, the CIA had authorization because they were correct in that particular assessment that it was indeed an Al Qaeda stronghold.  It’s the fact of that result that registers most with the American people and the domestic repercussions are minimal right now.  Mr. Donilon said as much, while tragic that hostages were killed, there is no absolute certainty in a war zone.

These are part of the unintended consequences – hostages being killed, civilians being injured in a retaliatory terrorist attacks for the use of those drones, and a deteriorating ability to negotiate with other countries around the world will all continue. Another consequence, Mr. Zenko explained, is the change in calculus as to how frequent these strikes are carried out. He explained that if these were special forces incursions there wouldn't be nearly as many or if these were manned aircraft strikes there also wouldn't be nearly as many. So the impetus for the de-escalation of these strikes given that safety calculus is very low. Drone strikes and the failure to close Guantanamo Bay Prison are two big failures that tarnish Mr. Obama’s legacy as president, there is no doubt.

Speaking of tarnished legacies it is difficult to run for president when you already have one at the state of the race. Of course we are speaking about Hillary Clinton and the rumblings of quid pro quo money for influence favors with the Clinton Foundation. The real problem here is that even the more liberal commentators and progress are using words like Evan buy from Yahoo news used on today's program which is arrogance and disregard for conflict of interest and putting it most mildly was governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas who said the Clintons were complicated. It's really hard to say where all of this is going to shake out however if it gets worse and Mrs. Clinton doesn't take Doris Kearns-Goodwin's advice of dealing with this herself and the Democrats have no fallback candidate if this goes in a nightmarish direction for Mrs. Clinton. We like most others don't feel that this will ultimately be a big deal but it adds to a negative narrative established twenty years with Mr. Clinton, and it’s this rehash that we dread.

Lastly, there is the impending Supreme Court decision on whether or not to make same-sex marriage legal in all 50 states and we thought that Mr. Olson and Mr. Boies frame the argument most properly. In denying same-sex marriage you are denying individuals rights that are afforded to others and under the Constitution. Everyone should have equal rights under the law. We understand the religious sensitivities that people have towards the notion of same-sex marriage but as was discussed the progression towards majority social acceptance has been historically fast. This just says that people are more accepting of differences but that those differences shouldn't mean that you have less rights than someone else. That's called advanced democracy.  There’s no absolute certainty that the country always get there, but we’re on board with the practice.

Panel: Asa Hutchinson, Governor of Arkansas; Doris Kearns-Goodwin, presidential historian; Evan Bai, Yahoo News; Helene Cooper, The New York Times

4.19.15: A Little Early for Presidential Campaign Analysis, but Gov. John Kasich...

We have no intention of going on too much today because the program primarily centered around the presidential campaign, and as Mr. Todd said, there are ninteen months until the election so we have a little time. However, having said that, we’ll offer a few thoughts on one guest in particular. First, it was no surprise that Gov. John Kasich of Ohio (R) was not going to give a scoop to “Meet The Press” in the form of an announcement on whether he’s running for president or not. Given the fact that he was a commentator on the Fox News Network, it would stand to reason that If anyone is going to get scoop, it would be Fox.

But he sure did sound like a candidate for president, and in our humble opinion he is really the one that can give Hillary Clinton the most trouble. He's the governor of the quintessential swing state that plays a vital role in any candidate’s hopes for presidential victory. He's a conservative but he is also a pragmatist, which answers the question of why he took the money for Medicaid under the construct of the Affordable Care Act, much to the chagrin of his conservative compatriots. But Mr. Kasich sees it as most people do, “Why wouldn't you take that money?” The federal government is helping the state government help its most struggling citizens.  He said it himself that there is a way to compromise without having to sacrifice your principles.  Governor Kasich said that the two most important considerations as to whether he is going to run is first his family, and secondly, (his words – paraphrasing) what the Lord is guiding him to do in his life. Of course you always have to consider the scrutiny that your family will have to endure as you the candidate run through the gauntlet of the press and campaign trail. The other consideration whether the Lord has indicated if this is what he should do with his life, take it easy hardcore liberals that the statement came off as it was coming more from the place in the strength that he finds in being religious, not some direct call from the God, while he has a crazy look in his eye.  But make no mistake, God’s going to tell him to run.

The only problem we would have with a Kasich Administration is that it would preside over a Republican Congress, and he’d rubberstamp anything that they put forward then rest on them the justification for it if it went south.  It’s happened before. Chuck Todd mentioned that there were nineteen prospective Republican candidates at this point and not at anytime we would presume to tell you how to vote, but if you're considering Ted Cruz or Ben Carson or Mike Huckabee, then you shouldn't be really reading this blog.  We all know that we like their collective entertainment value, but taking them seriously as presidential material is just downright scary.  Needless to say, they’ve all rendered themselves disqualified to hold any public office, forget the oval one.

The other little bit about today's program with regard to presidential politics all centered around Hillary Clinton's rollout of her campaign. Some on the panel thought it was too scripted, the journey to Iowa too scripted, and that there were opportunities lost, as Mr. Todd said. To all of which we say, “ Of course it was scripted.” She's just getting out on the road – why make an early mistake if you can avoid it.  Also, she's not really taking the temperature of the people so much as she is taking the temperature of the press coverage about the campaign launch.

The launch was what it was; all that matters is that we know she is official in the race. Here are two things to keep in mind in these early stages, 1) Mrs. Clinton put out broad strokes of what her campaign is going to be about, which is restoring the middle class. However, she really needs to start refining of vision and message quickly or everyone is going to view her candidacy simply as an attempted land grad. On the other side of that, Republicans need more than Hillary bashing and greedy tax policies. That's simply not going to fly.  But as we said, there are nineteen months to go so we’re not going to waste too much energy today going on about a race that's just started.

Panel: Helene Cooper, The New York Times; David Axrelrod, former advisor to President Obama; Kathleen Parker, The Washington Post; Steve Schmidt, former John McCain campaign manager. 

One last thing: We agree with Steve Schmidt and David Axelrod that what Florida postman Doug Hughes did - flying his Gyro copter into Capitol airspace to deliver a letter to bring attention to the reform of campaign finance was reckless and showed an extremely poor lack of judgment; he could have been shot down. Security became a large part of the story, and his message got lost in the on-air mail. Granted, we all know that this country desperately needs campaign finance reform in the biggest way because billionaires are essentially owning their own political candidates. However, the one question that’s been sticking with us throughout the story is where can we get a Gyrocopter? How cool is that?

4.12.15: Hillary Clinton's Announcement

Wouldn't it be funny if Hillary Clinton announced today that she wasn't running for president?  The number one topic that dominated today's program, despite a responsible addressing of all the week's news, was the presumed candidacy of Hillary Clinton; keyword being 'presumed.'

However, to our own mild surprise, we're going to trust NBC News because it's "Meet The Press." (We write a blog on it as you know.)  And Mr. Todd mentioned that the campaign is launching with the title - Hillary for America.  However, we're going to start with a point of discussion that the panel had at the end, which was the Atlantic Monthly's Jonathan Ruuch and his politician expiration date equation.  Mr. Todd explained that Mr. Rauch determined that the optimal time for a winning politician is if the person has been in the public eye for less than fourteen years. As an elected official, Hillary Clinton has accrued fifteen years, but if you factor in her time as first lady then it jumps up to a quarter of a century.  There were two lists of the prospective candidates outlining their over-under the fourteen-year threshold.

NPR's Maria Hinojosa commented that terms like 'stale' and 'expiration date' are very poor choices when describing any woman let alone Mrs. Clinton, and we obviously agree.  But here's the key - all all the people on that list there is only one woman and that is where the equation breaks.  Think about all that Mrs. Clinton has had to accomplish and go through to be in this very position.  As First Lady, she took a pummeling from Republicans over healthcare reform; then she had to win a New York Senate race, followed by losing a difficult presidential bid to relative newcomer Barack Obama; then serve under him as Secretary of State.  Comparatively, no other male candidate has a comparable  resume so she's had to be in the public eye longer by necessity .  You understand the disparity here.

Mrs. Clinton certainly does have trust issues, which are two-pronged.  There are Republicans who simply hate the Clintons and would never vote for them and then there is the more significant dissents, which come from Democrats who can not trust the Mrs. Clinton will do what she says she will.  For example, if Mrs. Clinton talks about the wealth gap in the United States and helping the middle class in a significant way, will she make good on that rhetoric?  This will be hashed out during the campaign and an examination of her vision, which is critical.

And given that, we wouldn't endorse Mrs. Clinton at this time either, not before we heard what she has to say so we agree with Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake that it is not significant that Bill de Blasio who served as he Senate-race campaign manager didn't endorse her today during his interview.  The dynamics of such an endorsement have significantly changed, starting with the fact that Mr. de Blasio is now the mayor of America's largest city, New York.  Also, we wouldn't suggest what she should or should not do on the campaign trail.  We're here to observer and assess as everyone else will do before casting a vote.  And what we'll assess is indeed Mrs. Clinton's vision for the country, and whether or not we think she'll actually carry it out, to earn an endorsement.

Hugh Hewlitt said he found it surreal that one of the talking points for Mrs. Clinton, uttered multiple times by Mr. de Blasio, is that she has been thoroughly vetted - obviously, he disagrees.  If you're a conservative as Mr. Hewlitt is, you're going to find it surreal as well because there are 'so many questions.'  Conversely, if you're a progressive, one would ask, 'what more do you need to know?'  For every politician, there is a sliding scale between the two.  As Mr. Todd pointed out, we know very little of Rand Paul's personal background, nor will he answer any questions about it. Yet, we know that Mrs. Clinton's husband had an affair, with whom and what was done.  To use the word 'surreal' is a bit too conspiracy oriented than is called for, as is saying that the Clintons think they are above the law, like Senator Paul did.

Then there is the ultimate wild-card, alluded to in the last paragraph, which is President Bill Clinton.  Strange that one's spouse would be a wild card, but when one's already been the president of the United States and it's Bill Clinton, then strange is what to expect. Having said that, in more honest campaigning terms, we think Mr. Clinton will stay on the right page more, in line with Mrs. Clinton's wishes this time round, but the variable is how it comes off and how it's perceived by the electorate.

David Brooks mentioned that for Mrs. Clinton it will be all about authenticity and integrity, but as David Axelrod said (in a clip), humility is the order of the day, and though we wouldn't call it humility per se, it's smart that Mrs. Clinton is announcing today because tomorrow, she'll only be a side note at the water cooler, which will be dominated by "Game of Thrones."  So here's to starting our own, the race for presidency of the United States.


Panel: David Brooks, The New York Times; Maria Hinojosa, NPR; Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, Mayor of Baltimore (D); Hugh Hewlitt, conservative radio host.


On another note: We'd be negligent if we didn't mention the police shooting of Walter Scott in South Carolina, but there isn't much to add except that 1) the alternative hypothetical report that "Meet The Press" put together was a better example of something truly surreal, 2) the policeman, Michael Slager should certainly be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, and 3) most importantly, the public trust of the police force, across the entire country, has eroded to a crisis level, and something needs to be done.  Body cameras, as discussed, is a good start, and demilitarizing the force would be a solid second step.

4.5.15: The Iranian Nuclear Deal & Religious Liberty

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It's a shame that on an Easter and Passover weekend we cannot speak about the topics from today's program in a more genial tone, but the guests and the subjects did not lend themselves at all well to any sort of conciliatory language.

Here’s the fact:  There is a deal in place.

It is certainly one that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not happy with as he unequivocally and repeatedly stated in his interview with Chuck Todd today that  Iran is the preeminent terrorist state of our time. Mr. Netanyahu, as we know, would like to see a deal that closes Iran's nuclear facilities, entirely rolling back their nuclear program.

But here’s another fact, is that's unrealistic. There is no way that is going to happen as Iran’s program is too far along, so much so that they were only a few months away from total nuclear weapon capability.  Mr. Netanyahu said that he wants a diplomatic deal, but one that is frankly unrealistic.  His only recourse to accomplish what he sees is a good deal would be to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities?  And if indeed that is the course of action, extrapolating out that plan, it would not be Israel that does the bombing, but the United States through authorization of a Republican Congress that frankly Mr. Netanyahu has in his vest pocket.  The deal pushes Iran’s capability back to a year’s time.

At the top of the program Mr. Todd summarized reactions on both sides: the hardliners in Iran felt that their Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, gave away too much and elected officials critical of the Obama administration in the United States said that the United States did not get enough concessions, so what we can surmise is that both sides felt some pain.  The other consideration, a big one, is that there were five other countries involved in negotiations. And this is key for the United States, in negotiating a nuclear agreement with Iran. It does the United States well to be partnered with Germany, France, Great Britain, Russia and China. However, if the U.S. Republican-controlled Congress does not go along with this deal – doesn’t ratify it – essentially killing it then we've lost some key allies and significant partners, not only on this deal but in others where we'll need their cooperation. They will know that the president doesn’t have the ability to negotiate on behalf of the country, rendering the United States an unreliable partner that other countries will cease to seek out.

Given that Iran was only months away from constituting a nuclear weapon, this was a critical time and a deal had to be struck or the United States would have to be willing to go to war with Iran, and it would certainly go it alone, with only Israel as a partner, as none of those other five countries would support a war against Iran. Not to mention that, frankly, the American people simply don't want it.

Senator Christopher Murphy (D-CT), who called the deal ‘remarkable,’ provided minor consolation for the deal, when he explained that other sanctions related to other issues at hand would remain in place.  Only sanctions as they are related to Iran's nuclear capability would eventually be lifted.  Mr. Murphy also offered the opinion that perhaps if the United States can show it can negotiate with Iran on this issue; perhaps it could negotiate with them on others. That’s a overly optimistic in our opinion.

When it comes right down to it the opinion of this column is one of pragmatism. Given the facts, as they are now, the question at hand is what the U.S. Congress should do now? As we’ve said, if Congress nixes this deal, which they probably will, it puts the United States in a very difficult diplomatic spot.

[Though were not really ready to comment on presidential politics at the moment, if in 2016 a Democrat is elected president and Republican Congress is still in control; will this sort of diplomatic negating tactic stay in place, essentially rendering the United States’ ability to negotiate with other countries completely null and void because of its unpredictability? Point being, is that this could set of very bad precedent that would only get worse moving forward.

And unfortunately speaking of the concept of ‘things-can-only-get-worse’ in the of presidential politics, we think of governors running for president in terms of how they run their states. So when we consider Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal: we ask ourselves: do we want to live Mr. Jindal’s Louisiana? The answer is clearly ‘no.’]

The above supplemental commentary aside, the essential question that Mr. Jindal was on today’s program to answer was in consideration of the validity of these religious liberty laws that have come through Indiana and Arkansas in the past week.

The first amendment of the Constitution reads as follows:

Amendment 1

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances. 

In his defense of religious liberty laws, Mr. Jindal quoted referred to the founding fathers and the First Amendment, what is disturbing is that he would have you believe an incorrect reading of the first sentence of the first amendment.  (And frankly, Cardinal Dolan in his interview, was also incorrectly spoke about what the first amendment means.) In the first sentence, it says: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion…” What that means is Congress should make no laws with regard to religion, and making a religious liberty law is making law about ‘religion,’ which Congress shouldn’t do under any circumstance. The invocation of liberty is open to interpretation, but it's a non-issue regardless because the First Amendment it says no law should be made with respect to religion. That is most rudimentary answer as to why it is unconstitutional.

What these religious liberty laws were designed to do in a practical sense is protects businesses if they wanted to refuse service to a gay couple on the grounds that it goes against the religious values of the business owner. For example, if there is only one florist in town and a gay couple wants to get married – in that town in a state where same-sex marriage is legal - and they go to that florist to get flowers for the wedding.  The florist says, “I don't believe in that kind of marriage for religious reasons, so I am not delivering the flowers,” that business’s discrimination is protected under the law.  It’s protects the business’s right to discriminate based on sexual orientation.   Again - Congress shall make no law with respect to an establishment of religion.

Not to mention that throughout the entire interview, Governor Jindal spoke only in terms of Christians.  He didn’t speak at all in terms of all religions, just the Christian religion, which was sad. (And it didn't go unnoticed that Cardinal Dolan only referred to Christians and Jews as practicing religious peacefulness.) We understand and have sympathy for Cardinal Dolan's point of view because he is a cardinal in the Catholic Church, catering to Catholics! However with respect to Gov. Jindal, he signed up for PUBLIC office – public meaning everyone without respect to religion, not the office of the Christian public only. 

Panel:   Matt Bai, Yahoo News; Amy Walter, Cook Political Report; Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Perry Bacon, NBC News

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3.29.15: Is The Obama Administration A Player or Just Being Played?

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It's a predictable notion that we’ll comment on the Germanwings plane crash which turned out to be a deliberate act, because we want to share our perspective on what some are calling an inexplicable act.  But before we get into that, we must skip over to the subject of Yemen and what is happening in the greater Middle East along with what the United States is doing in the region. The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been going on for the better part of 30 years, and now that Cold War in the Middle East could become quite hot.

The Saudi ambassador to the United States, Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir, said on today's program that the Saudi military was conducting airstrikes in Yemen against Iranian-backed Shia militias at the invitation of the Yemeni government with the goal being, as the ambassador stated, to protect the Yemeni people from these extremists. The ambassador also explained that they are conducting these airstrikes with the full support of the United States. Meanwhile on the other side of things, the Obama administration is in talks with the Iranian regime over its nuclear program. It was outlined on the program that the United States is presenting a pessimistic view of the negotiations while the Iranians are framing things in an optimistic light.

Here’s what we have to say:  At this point in time, there can be no deal no nuclear deal with Iran.

First, as former Ambassador Christopher Hill said, the mullahs in Iran have no interest in normalizing relations with Israel, let alone recognizing the country's right to exist. He used the phrase “a bridge too far” when Chuck Todd asked him why recognition of the Israeli state is not on the table for these negotiations.

Of course this column is a strong supporter of Israel, but, that is not the sole reason why we say that there should be no deal.  The other is that we just don’t see the wisdom in enabling Iran in extending its reach across the region by putting this deal in place, which would essentially lift sanctions give them greater resources. Now, it was brought up that if there is no nuclear deal then that would allow Iran to try and constitute its nuclear program freely as they would be able to kick out U.N. inspectors. The essential problem is that Iran is not acting in good faith – it will say what it has to so that the sanctions are lifted but still pursue a nuclear weapon.

The discussion on today’s program explained that while the US is supporting the Saudi's in their airstrikes against Shia militias in Yemen, the United States is also on the same side as Iran in the fight against ISIS. However, just to stay up to speed, it was reported in the New York Times this morning that Iranian led militias in Iraq left the fight for Tikrit in protest because of United States involvement in the form of airstrikes.  

Unless the Obama administration has some sort of Jedi chess move that we're not seeing, it seems like to us that it is being played by lead by both sides.  The Saudi's and the Iranians are essentially war with one another – hot, cold, lukewarm, covert, overt, whatever - and the U.S. is enabling both of them, but to what end?

The United States in no way should help Iran accrue the resources it needs to spread more of its control throughout the Middle East. What's tricky is that what you are left with is partnering with a regime that protects individuals that export extremism and terrorism targeting the United States, and that is Saudi Arabia. And that's not even to mention the Saudi's horrible human rights record and the way that they treat women.

The United States military in the Middle East should take a stance and posture of support. And what we mean by that is no airstrikes on ISIS. If the Iranians want to take that fight, let them, but the United States should keep the hefty sanctions in place as a certain deterrent to interfering with Kurdistan, Jordan, or of course Israel.

Because in this fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran, one which both sides clearly want to have, the United States shouldn't be fighting for either side. However, we've already thrown our support to the Saudi's, that's clear, but at the same time appeasing Iran is not the way to go.  Why be played by both sides?

It's not so much that we have a problem with the goals that the Obama Administration is trying to achieve – peace in the region. The problem we have is no one's listening to the Obama Administration; no one cares what they have to say; they are basically just in the way in the minds of the major regional players and are carrying no clout. No one is listening to them. 

Update: We want to add here that there could be a deal but there shouldn't be when all of the players involved are presently firing rockets and dropping bombs.

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And now will briefly comment about the Germanwings plane crash, to try to provide a little insight. It's been reported that the co-pilot Andreas Lubitz had been suffering from depression, and The New York Times reported this morning that he was having problems with his eyesight.  The latter possibly causing Mr. Lubitz anxiety about losing his job, possibly ending his flying career.   Whether the concern about eyesight is legitimate or not, make no mistake the depression was there first. Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker said on today's program that she wasn't completely convinced that the deliberate act of crashing the plane was due to a mental health issue. We don't have all the evidence so it is possible that there was a motivation that hasn't been identified as of yet.

But if, in fact, it was due to mental illness on the part of Mr. Lubitz, let's put that into a little perspective. Think about society today and how individuals are so physically cut off from one another. We live predominantly communicating through screens -the information that we give and the information that we receive.  We are more and more isolated, living inside our own heads too much and pre-occupied with self, especially true of younger people who have grown up in this technological isolating context. On top of that, take into consideration a general feeling around the world that economically life is never going to be easy, throwing a shadow of foreboding for massive amounts people.

It’s reasoned that someone who is suicidal will go and commit this act, and given that analysis, Mr. Lubitz should be considered a mass murderer of 149 individuals.  While he is, indeed, a mass murderer, maybe he was also (wrongly) thinking that for anyone to sympathize and understand his pain – to hear the cry - he had to bring spectacular attention to it and himself.  For him, the way was to down a passenger jet with all of those people on it.   That in no way explains away anything, serving no justification, but the notion that it was some inexplicable act we just don't buy.

Panel: Joe Scarborough, MSNBC’s “Morning Joe;” Kathleen Parker, The Washington Post; Sam Stein, The Huffington Post; Neera Tanden, CEO of the Center for American Progres

3.22.15: Conditions on the Ground Dictate

There will not be a two-state solution while Benjamin Netanyahu is Prime Minister.  That's what candidate Netanyahu said to court the hard Israeli right wing to win reelection.  He walked those comments back two days after the election, but it's his initial statement that is correct and will turn to be fact.  The Israeli Ambassador to the U.S., Ron Dermer, explained that under current conditions on the ground, there will not be a Palestinian state, and that's what Mr. Netanyahu meant, and not that he wasn't in favor of one. 

In sorting this out, let's be clear - Mr. Netanyahu does not want a two-state solution, and it's curious that he doesn't see that it's in Israel's best long-term interest that there be.  However, where we agree with Mr. Dermer, Israel should not give statehood to the Palestinians if Israel is not getting peace in return.  If the Palestinians can not see their way in getting along peacefully with Israel then what's the point?

And this is where Mr. Riyad Monsour, Palestinian Observer at the United Nations, lost the argument. He said on today's program that Israel could not negotiate because Mr. Abbas's government in the West Bank didn't represent all Palestinians.  However, later when Mr. Abbas partnered with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, bringing the two factions together, Israel still couldn't negotiate.  That's the best he can do?  Hamas doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist as a state, which is an instantaneous deal-breaker. Their dual purpose of a free Palestine that can attack and destroy Israel is farce, and if actualized, is really the first step to their destruction.

Subtracting all the rhetoric, the reality is that a two-state solution is NOT the road to peace, but the end of the road of peace. But Hamas can not get with that program so two states are highly unlikely to happen on Mr. Netanyahu's watch, and there after.

And as Mr. Dermer pointed out, the prospect of another Iranian-backed extremist group on your doorstep - Hamas as junior partner - provides little incentive to do a deal.  And now that Iran has essentially taken control of another capital - Sanaa in Yemen - their growing influence begs the question of what point is it to sit down with a group when it's another country that really makes the decisions?

And speaking of Yemen, the country has broken down into the chaos of a sectarian civil war between Saudi-backed Sunni militias and Iranian-backed Shiite militias.  And though, as we alluded to above, this seeming victory for Iran looks good in the short-term, but it's right at Saudi Arabia's border, which makes it a completely different set of circumstances.  The Saudis will ruthlessly do anything to keep Iranians off the peninsula.  And while the Iranians will be weathering more crippling sanctions because of a failed nuclear deal, the Saudis, though deplorable human rights violators yet enjoying good international standing, will freely put even more money into Sunni extremist groups, like ISIS, to fight the Iranians.  The collateral damage of those extremist groups be damned in the mind of the Saudis.

Conditions on ground (in the region) dictate, and the one sure conclusion is that the conditions will not be getting better any time soon, certainly not in the time that Mr. Netanyahu is prime minister. 

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 Conditions on the ground...

It's an all-too-nice segue into commenting on the interview with Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA), who said that Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who will officially be the first person to declare a candidacy (tomorrow) for president of the United States in 2016, is completely unfit to hold the office on the basis of simply being a climate denier.  For this reason and a host of others, we couldn't agree more with Governor Brown. For the sack of some brevity, we'll just stick with climate change for today.

First, whether you believe climate change exists or not, the fact is that ice melt in the Arctic has set records this year, and with that fact here's a scientific fact that we all agree on - when ice melts it turns to water.  If you don't believe in climate change, then how about coastal change because that what's going to happen - that water has to go somewhere when all that ice melts.

Governor Brown mentioned extreme weather, which includes years-long drought that California is experiencing, as an effect of climate change, which shouldn't be confused with global warming.  We've pointed this out before, but it's worth reiterating and that is this:  when the climate changes in one region of the world other regions will be affected so when it gets warmer in the Arctic, it will become even wetter in tropical and coastal areas.  In the case of the East Coast of the United States, it is becoming wetter but the air remains cold hence the increase in snow fall.  However, one day decades from now the air will become warmer thus rain instead of snow.  So getting back to the case of California, it's dry and becoming worse. (And it will not get better before water is an emergency in the state.

If you're following Mr. Cruz's lead on this subject, we'll understate, being charitable, in saying their you're having an impairment of judgement.

Panel: John Stanton, Buzzfeed Washington Bureau; Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Rich Lowry, The National Review; Jane Harman, the Wilson Center