4.10.22: Issues to Govern On, Issues to Run On...

The Boston Globe's Editorial Board member, Kimberly Atkins Stohr summed it up best explaining that Democrats search for issues to govern on while Republican search for issues to campaign on. It brakes down this way on practically everything in our collective civil life these days. The byproduct is that it leaves everyone dissatified.

Said in another and accurate way is that Democrats know how to govern and Republicans know how to campaign which plays out both in domestic policy and foreign policy.

That brings us to the war in Ukraine and what Chuck Todd aptly described as 'calculated cruelty.' One could say that if George W. Bush were in office, the world would have to worry about the fate of NATO and the response, outside of minor strategic differences, would be the same - pour as much support, military and otherwise, into the defense of Ukraine. But that's not the Republican party that we have anymore.

Had the last Republican president still been in office, the administration's presumed response would have been tepid at best, NATO would be completely ineffectual, Europe nations would focus on their self interests and their reliance on Russian energy and Putin would have won the Battle of Kyiv. But Putin didn't win this battle, the Ukraine did.

Unlike Afghanistan, the Biden Administration has done as well as any U.S. Administration can to support Ukraine and push back on Russian aggression, which the West has finally woken up to. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan that he and Joint Chief of Staff General Mark Milley are personally coordinating with Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. As we mentioned in a previous column, European and the U.S. governments all have an ax to grind when when it comes to Putin or some nefarious Russian entity violating countries' sovereignty. 

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba  explained that in 2008 the United States had pushed for Ukraine to join NATO, which was during the Bush Administration, with France and Germany rejecting the idea. So here we are with Russian forces indescriminating bombing civilians - women and children fleeing the war.

Russian forces are regrouping in the eastern part of the country so it's a race to get arms into the hands of the Ukrainians, some of which Mr. Sullivan explained are being delivery at the moment of this writing. 

Mr. Kuleba explained the deal that Ukraine wants, give us what we need to fight and win this war against Putin's Russia so that NATO and the west won't have to. The seems a bit hyperbolic in the cynical sense, but the Foreign Minister is not wrong. If Ukraine doesn't succeed, that larger confrontation will be inevitable.

Republicans, realizing that the Biden Administration's response politically and materially is better than anything the former administration could muster in terms of competency have turned their attention to domestic issues - practical and cultural.

On the practical issues, inflation is a slamdunk for Republicans to slap the Democrats with, and Republicans always profit historically from when Democrats take control, they over reach and their base becomes discouraged.

As fmr. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers explained, the inflation in gas prices is due to the increased demand, the bottleneck in the supply chain caused by covid, and the unforeseen war in Ukraine. In this were the only daily commodity which was seeing a price increase, Americans would be more optimistic about the economy because they see one of the major causes on their television screens everyday. 

However, inflation is running through the price of everything and anyone who checks their bank account more than twice a week has altered one's spending [read: middle and lower-middle class]. That along with big bright lights every other mile on American roads flashing red steep gas prices and Republicans have something to point to.

Mr. Summers also explained that by creating so much demand combined with so many Americans having pent up cash, from the pandemic, he foresaw the inflation that we're seeing now, admittedly, not at this level but he did see it coming. He also explained that nothing is certain in economics but that historically after a period of high inflation, a recession usually follows one to two years later. Translate that into - Do what you can this year to pay off as many debts as much as possible because the next few years could be tight.

Mr. Summers explained what is happening with economy very clearly and fixes to alter the course so for that reason, we've included his entire interview below.

Former Florida Congressman Carlos Curbelo said that Republicans are definitely winning the culture wars, and he's not wrong. Republicans, and yes lead by Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis, are pushing Democrats buttons with divisive policies and they have the state legislations and the death-proof majority in the Supreme court to push their agenda as far as they can imagine. 

As Mr. Todd reminded us, and we're paraphrasing more poetically, overreach is the inevitability of too much power. This brings us to the Supreme Court.

Congratulations to newly-confirmed Associate Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson who after 232 years and 115 appointments, we finally have a black woman on the highest court of the United States. This should be celebrated uniquovocally despite the despictable, cynical, gutter level attacks that Republican Senators throw at her. F**k them, she shined.

However, as we know all too well, it doesn't change the balance of the court and that Mississippi abortion ruling is coming down the pike. If the Court rules in favor of Mississippi, which most legal prognosticators believe to be the case, a wave of abortion bills will be voted into the law. 

Given the Republicans ruthless efficiency in enacting such overreaching policies, it could work to Democrats' advantage. Such sweeping policy that effects over half the U.S. population is a pretty motivating factor - for and against, but in this case mostly against.

Panel: Kimberly Atkins Stohr, The Boston Globe; Anna Palmer, Punchbowl News; Josh Lederman, NBC; Carlos Curbelo, fmr. Florida Congressman (R)

3.27.22: Despite The President's Gaffes, The U.S. Handling of the War In Ukraine Could Be A Lot Worse

"For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power." 

USA Today's Susan Page explained that President Biden said what everyone in Washington is thinking and discussing which is Vladimir Putin needs to be out of power. However, the president saying the quiet part out loud is no doubt a mistake because unless some drastic, unlikely shift happens in the Kremlin, The West, NATO, and the United States are going to have to talk to the Russian dictator.

Two more points there - Putin is a dictator, no other description is applicable, and this dictator is going to need to talk to the west unless he also wants the task of trying to build an economy from scratch in the 21st century, which is where he is heading.

As The Dispatch's Stephen Hayes explained, it's not so much the adhoc statements themselves but that the administration keeps walking things back that have an effect on how Americans perceive his handling of the conflict. 

However, a matter of perspective is needed here. Was it a mistake to say that Putin needs to go, many would say 'yes' because it doesn't show message discipline and it's not the official policy of the United States. Does an off-script statement like this become dangerous as Ms. Page asked? We'll have to wait and see, but it isn't like it's an opinion that is not agreed upon. The perspective is warranted because what is not in question is Mr. Biden's devotion to democratic values and standing up for them, and lest we not forget 14 months ago we had a president that was not interested in defending democracy.

Frankly, we'd take Biden's gaffes, however cringeworthy, over Mr. Trump's anti-democratic, Putin-praising idiocy everytime.

And Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky has a point, too much talk and not enough action. As Ukraine's Ambassador to the United State, Oksana Markarova explained, Putin cannot be trusted and if Ukraine doesn't win, it will be a threat to all democracies and the world order that has been in place since WWII. If Putin wins, she said that the will show that dictator and military force are the only things that matter. To back up President Zelensky's point, she said that the Ukrainians had the best boots on the ground but that they needed the weapons.

The best part of the interview with the Ambassador was when Mr. Todd asked her about the independent territories in Ukraine like the Donbas and whether her government would negotiate on those points. Her answer: There are no independent territories with the borders of Ukraine.

The ambassador also said that Putin has no red lines, so it was interesting to hear Senator Rob Portman say that the use of chemical or biological weapons is a red line that the United States should enforce and retailiate, not in kind, but militarily.

Despite the gaffes, President Biden's defense of democracy and his handlining of the situation have been overall quite good. We think about this because we know that it could have been a lot worse with western democracies in full cowering stance instead of standing up as a united force.

On other matters, like the Supreme Court, with each passing day confidence in the court wains. Mr. Todd pointed out that the only thing that changes in confirmation hearings is that the hearing for Supreme Court nominees are televised, which encourages Senators to grandstand. There's your answer right there on how to get these proceedings reigned in so that we don't have a senator like Josh Hawley bring conspiracy theories to the hearing questions. Even conservative writer, Stephen Hayes said that the Republican party has a problem with conspiracy theories. Wow, you think? Susan Page explained that 1 in 4 Republicans believe some aspect of Q Anon... sad.

All this does is serve to put further doubt in people's minds about the legitimacy of the Court. And then there's Justice Clarence Thomas and his 'best friend' his wife Ginni, who apparently is wrapped up in January 6th conspiracies and was a de facto advisor to the White House Chief-of-Staff Mark Meadows on how to unlawfully overturn the election. 

Senator Portman explained that given this revelation, if a case on January 6th comes before the Court, then perhaps Justic Thomas should recuse himself from the case. But the fact is that a case on January 6th already has come before the court in the form of releasing documents from the National Archive and Justic Thomas was the lone dissenter in releasing them. Coincidence? Not bloody likely.

Panel: Susan Page, USA Today; Yamiche Alcindor, PBS Newshour; Stephen Hayes, The Dispatch; Jeh Johnson, fmr. Secretary of Homeland Security

 

3.20.22: An Animal Is Most Dangerous and Ruthless When Wounded

An animal is always at its most dangerous and ruthless when it's wounded, and the Russian Bear has certainly had a few claws pulled at the root of paw. In other words, the humiliations the Russian army has suffered are prompting Putin to use crude and more brutal weapons such as a hypersonic missile, but also as devastating, especially on civilian populations are non-smart bombs that are launched indiscriminately hitting hospitals, apartments buidlings and theaters filled with children.

The moderator, Chuck Todd's central question for all the guests was at what point does Putin's brutality in Ukraine warrant a more direct military response or intervention on the part of the U.S., NATO and other allies?

Understandably, the answers depend on where you currently sit. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) is more hawkish in the Cheney-family tradition, but she's in a position where she can say that chemicalweapons, for instance, are indeed a red line that would precipitate a direct military response. However if you're the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg you have to address the question more carefully and NOT commit to a position that locks in a thirty-nation alliance into a potentially untenable position. However, the Secretary did plainly state that the use of chemical weaspons is a clear violation of international law.

One point that Secretary Stoltenberg made requires distinction which was he thank the U.S. president for his leadership and admitted that U.S. and the Biden Administration were briefing NATO for months and worked all the diplomatic channels to make NATO as unified in its actions as it is today. It was a big statement.

As PBS's Amna Nawaz explained, there is a throughline between how Putin's forces acted in Syria and what is happening the Ukraine. The Russians demolished Aleppo with cluster bombs and facilitated Assad's use of chemical weapons. The only inclination to think that Putin will not deploy chemical weapons is that there would be no coming back from pariah status by the European Union with its economic might alone cutting off Russia will have harsh consequences for as long as Putin is in power. 

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said that we shouldn't be placing redlines on specifics, but that Putin should know that the United States will escalate its response to the scale of Putin's actions. Senator Murphy being a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee and closer to President Biden is going to be more measured, but reaffirmed his unwavering support for President Zelenskyy and the Urkainian people, as did Representative Cheney. 

When you hear leaders from both parties agreeing on the fundamental issue of freedom and democracy it's allows one to better understand where the differences are on a particular issue and see that both sides bring good points to their arguments and the gray areas in between. No better than the Iran Nuclear deal where Senator Murphy said that we should do everything we can to get back into it, whereas Representative Cheney explained that we shouldn't be rewarding Iran with sanctions relief at this time when the status of their nuclear ambitions wouldn't be changed. Senator Murphy's position that since pulling out the Iranians' progress toward a nuclear weapon has moved at a rapid pace, and presumably reinstituting the deal would halt that progress.

There's nothing wrong with seeing valid points from both sides of the aisle when the baseline of American values are shared and shared honestly. 

And speaking of honesty, take Represntative Liz Cheney at her word when she says that nothing that she has learned being part of the January 6th Select Committee has lessened her concern with regard to the gravity of that day and the actions of the previous president and administration. 

Lastly, it was mentioned a few times that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (admittedly a cool name for a morally questionable individual) has emerged as the interlocutor that could possibly negotiate with Putin to stop the violence; Mr. Erdogan's Turkey is conveniently a member of NATO while the president personally has a sufficient authoritarian inclination acommpanied by action to that end to make Mr. Putin feel more at ease. Or so one would think... However, if you try to force a wounded animal out of the corner, it's coming with everything to try and kill you.

Panel: Andrea Mitchell;, NBC News; Amna Nawz, PBS Newshour; David Ignatius, The Washington Post; Shane Harris, The Washington Post

One more thing...

For the record and your viewing, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's speech to the U.S. Congress.

3.13.22: As History Unfolds Daily, the Right Side of It Needs Clarification

First things last...

To be clear, if Mr. Trump were still president, the NATO alliance would be irreparably broken, the White House's position would be that Ukraine is not the U.S.'s problem, and it would embolden other authoritarian regimes to take similar actions because the United States would be in retreat. The New York Times' Pentagon correspondent Helene Cooper mapped it quite succinctly and accurately. 

And to this day, as Peter Baker explained, Mr. Trump has never uttered one negative word or made one negative statement directly about Putin... Ever.

Pardon us if we take a moment to sound off a bit. Throughout the week, and each week of this war does indeed become more consequential, there have been things that need to be called out.

Starting with Bill Barr and his cynical attempt to repair his image for the history books. We have read his book, admittedly nor will we, but I think it's safe for us to say that the only thing we'd consider indisputable is the title - one damn thing after another. Between Attorney General Bill Barr and White House Counsel Pat Cippolone, the scope of crimes and violations they turned a blind eye to while Mr. Trump was in office will still be uncovered years from now.

Also, in the grand scope of geo-politics and the real politik, there's lots of grey, charcoal in some places, but Israel's fecklessness when it comes to silence in condemning Russia's war of choice against Ukraine is appalling. Inexcusable. We know there is too much business that depends on this silence, but isn't the morality that you show in this life and not the money? Doesn't the United States have 12 billion reasons why Israel should be helping us out. As Mr. Todd mentioned, Israel is one country that could provide an 'off ramp' for Putin. Really, how's that going? Some have gone as far as to blame the positions of the United States that drove Putin to this... Yeah, soft apologists we have no time for.

And as for Representative Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) calling President Zelenskyy a 'thug' is beyond the pale. He can only be an American by birth because in principles there is nothing American in the slightest. Our advise, read a history book.

We also have to call out the Biden Administration because politics is perception. Americans imprisoned in Venezuela are released and we need their oil. This was a step way too far if the end is a result of these means. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan tried to separate the two, but of all the despots in all the gin joints around the world, do we have to sit at the bar with Maduro?

Lastly, people should understand what a no-fly zone really means. As Ambassador Michael McFaul explained, if NATO or the United States imposed a no-fly zone over Ukraine, it may as well be a declaration of war. And in this instance, the Biden Administration has correctly pushed back on that notion because they have made it clear that the U.S. would not take provocative [read: direct offensive action against Russia] action.

As history is unfolding on a daily basis, we had the need to clarify who's on the right side of it.

Experts: fmr. Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch; fmr. Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, James Stavridis; fmr. Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul

Panel: Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Rich Lowry, The National Review; Kimberly Atkins Stohr, The Boston Globe; Peter Baker, The New York Times

3.6.22: How Far Is The West Willing To Go?

The question now is how far is the NATO alliance, the United States, Europe and the world willing to go to stop Putin's aggression in Ukraine. Mr. Putin has stated that the sanctions levied against his country are the equivalent of a declaration of war. 

Of the 4 main requests made by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, two involve sanctioning and inflicting more pain on the Russian economy. These should be done as quickly as possible, embargoing Russian energy exports and withdraw their favored-nation trade status. Call the bluff and continue highlighting big asset seizures of Russian oligarchs. 

However, as Secretary of State Anthony Blinken explained, and confirmed later by The New Yorker's Robin Wright, a ban on Russian oil in the United States would strictly be symbolic if we do not do it in coordination with allies.

Call the bluff because as fmr. Allied CDR of NATO, James Stavridis explained, NATO outspends Russia 15-1 on its military. Putin knows too well that combined economic and military conflict with the west is a serious loser.

It's progress that the Poles will supply fighter jets to the Ukraines, but the import opf anti-aircraft munitions to the Ukrainians needs to be stepped up, and yes, the United States should backstop both efforts. In terms of a no-fly zone, frankly, does NATO, more specifically Western Europe have the stomach for the implications of what that would mean? As Secretary Blinken succinctly desribed, if NATO imposes a no-fly zone and a Russian Miig flies through it, then NATO would shoot it down, with the implications that the war would immediately expand across the continent.  Putin said the sanctions are a declaration of war.

Senator Joe Manchin disagreed that taking a no-fly zone off the table is a mistake, but to our point above, for now it should be because saber-rattling on this point only prompts action not well thought out. The saber-rattling, mind you, wouldn't come from Senator Manchin but potentially other irresponsible persons such as say... hmmmm... Lindsey Graham, maybe.

As for fmr. UN Secretary Nikki Haley saying that this would have never happened if the former president were in office, one would be inclined to call BS on that simply because it still would have happened but the Trump Administration would have not had the unified response we're seeing now. When Chuck Todd rattled off a list of items that Mr. Trump 'tried' to do to appease Putin, Ms. Haley's reply was that those we're the things he only 'tried,' to do, but not what he did. What?

Right, what did do, which was exhort President Zelenskyy for a political favor in exchange for supplying military assistance. As Fiona Hill explained, he did this at a critical juncture in the conflict in eastern Ukraine and it sent a signal of weakness in saying that Ukraine's defense didn't matter. 

Ms. Haley also suggested that we shouldn't engage with China diplomatically at all on Russia, which is also a mistake. This is exactly the time to use our soft power to weaken any support China has for Russia, and it sends a clear message that the United States isn't looking the other way.

So Ms. Haley... please. Take all that someplace else.

One last note with regard to the State of Union speech. Mr. Todd asked Princeton Professor Eddie Glaude, Jr. about the speech and the fact that President Biden stressed the point of freedom in Ukraine but didn't directly address defending democracy at home. Mr. Glaude said that he was shocked that Mr. Biden didn't bring it up and thought it a mistake.

While we agree with Mr. Glaude's sentiment, we disagree that it was a mistake because that it wouldn't have fit with what Joe Biden was trying to do with the speech which was to bring people together. Secondly, Mr. Biden in his speech while speaking about Ukraine referred the hall of the Capitol so the implied meaning of how Mr. Biden was speaking about Ukraine, listeners understood that he was referencing democracy at home as well. This implied meaning was not lost on the American people, and Mr. Biden did well in trying not to deliberately alienate Americans on the other side of the political spectrum. 

Panel: Robin Wright, The New Yorker; Hallie Jackson, NBC News; Eddie Glaude, Jr., Princeton University; Steven Hayes, The Dispatch

2.27.22: There's No Going Back from Democracy for Ukrainians

Should the U.S. and Europe have done more to help Ukraine defend themselves before the Putin Regime unlawfully invaded this sovereign country? The answer is, of course, but even amongst Ukrainians along with the rest of the world, it seemed unfathomable that Putin would actually go through with it. One day you're a computer programmer and the next you have a Kalishnikov in your hand is pretty incredible to even get your head around. Even for Putin.

The Russian leader has indeed been on his heels, surprised the unified response of NATO, pressure at the United Nations with 88 countries standing in solidarity against Russian action as the UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield described, and most importantly and not least of which is the resistence of the Ukrainian Army and its civilians. For twenty years, Ukrainians have decided they want democracy for their country and in the end no matter when that comes, they're not going back.

The unfortunate reality of now is that despite the announcement of Russian and Ukrainian delegations meeting tomorrow, those talks which Mr. Todd mislabeled as peace talks, will go no where. Putin, because of his isolation that fmr. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul described, has to go all-in at this point and send troops in for street-to-street fighting in urban centers. Anything less than the goal of folding Ukraine back into a 'soviet' empire is a failure for Putin.

There was debate on sanctions between all the guests feature on the program today, but they've seemed to all miss the point, which is that it's the threat of sanctions to deter malign action. Now, bring on the full sanctions for what they're designed to do, which is punish the Putin regime. As a side note: there has been a lot of talk about SWIFT and kicking Russian banks out of it. SWIFT is a European banking system that allow major banks to communicate and manage transactions worldwide. So kicking out Russian banks from this system along with U.S. banks freezing Russian assets and you're pretty much out of the international banking system.

In the last panel segment, the conversation became a bit testy discussing some in the Republican party being apologists for Putin, such as the fmr. president and notably fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who has presidential aspirations. The American Enterprise Institute's Danielle Pletka felt that she was being ganged up on in her defense of Pompeo's comments, in which he said that he had a lot of respect for Vladimir Putin the very day before the invasion. Ms. Pletka said that his comments shouldn't be taken serious because she knows that Mr. Pompeo doesn't really believe that. She dismissed Andrea Mitchell's rebuttal that Mr. Pompeo's comments are being played on Russian state television and that's dangerous, which it is. Also, Ms. Pletka said she needed to be heard because she was the only Republican on the panel, which again Ms. Mitchell answered that she was neither Republican or Democrat, but a journalism. Ms. Pletka once again poo-poo'ed. 

The problem is Mr. Pompeo has made these statements several times and his words matter. So not to pile on her, but Ms. Pletka once again needs to take the shoe that was once up her butt about being ganged up on and remove it from her mouth. Frankly, there is no space in this column for Putin apologists neither the defense of them.

Just to give you some context on this, some in the news media (or whatever) ask why shouldn't we see Putin's point of view that he doesn't want NATO on his border. Just call bullshit on that. NATO was already on his border - Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia... and Poland (Kalingrad is a carve out part of Russia). This column has many friends in Poland who we communicate with frequently and without going into too much depth, Poles are worried. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, what makes them think they're not Putin's next direct target for cyber and all the rest?

The isolation of Putin has only begun.

****

On another note, President couldn't have made a better choice for his Supreme Court nomination in Judge Kentanji Brown-Jackson. Already on the DC Circuit Court, once a public defender, impeccable credentials, endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police, not a legislator from the bench. And yes, an African-American woman, which plays into this column's theory that it will be black women who come over time to save our nation domestically. Just another thought.

Panel: Kristen Welker, NBC News; Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Danielle Pletka, American Enterprise Institute; Jeremy Bash, fmr. Pentagon Chief of Staff

2.20.22: Playing a Bad Hand from a Bad Deal in a Dangerous Game/ Democrats-Take a lesson from SF's Mayor

It's still difficult to imagine that the world is potentionally going to see the largest land war in Europe since WWII, but here we are on the brink of such an event in 2022. NATO and western allies in Europe have gotten it right in releasing intelligence about the Putin Regime's false flag operations, propaganda videos and other means to create the pretext for an invasion. In an age that illustrates that data and information are a weapon, the way to fight it is with more information from other counter sources. As Secretary of State Anthony Blinken accurately noted, every piece of intelligence that the Biden Administration has released, Putin has followed through on.

There's the notion that Mr. Putin is not a rational actor and that perhaps the isolation of the pandemic some how made him irrational that isn't the case at all. Without trying to get into the man's head, perhaps the isolation of the pandemic put in perspective from his point of view the growing isolation of Russia as countries like Ukraine, once under the thumb of Russia, are looking westward aspriring to become more democratic. Speculation on his lucidity also stemmed from his demand that NATO return to its pre-1997 borders, rolling back NATO membership for 14 countries, including Poland and Czech Republic and Hungary - members in that year. Not. Going. To. Happen. However, use the tactic of asking from the most outlandish concession and anything that follows from it could be a success. Unless...

Unless you use force to try and achieve your goals. As fmr. ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor said, Putin is running out of time to reinstate what he rightly believes is Russian sphere of influence over fmr. Soviet Republics. A 'legacy event' is what NBC's Courtney Kube astutely called it and as we wrote in a previous column, upsetting the world order in the way Russia is threatening could open a Pandora's Box of our countries taking the same initiatives. 

The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan explained that the west has played a bad hand as well as it can be played right now, but it should be clear that the west was dealt this hand by Putin and the dangerous game he is playing. As Mr. Todd touched the consequences of sanctions and support for Ukraine with Secretary Blinken, America will be succeptible to higher energy and gasoline costs as well as cyber attacks on our infrastructure. Make no mistake on the latter, if the United States imposes sanctions on Russia, Putin will give support and sanctuary to cyber-terrorism. In other words, all bets are off.

****

As for this school board brew haha in San Francisco it has to first be said that Mayor London Breed has our vote. She explained the recalled school board members put political agendas over the imperative issues facing San Francico's schools. To this end, Mayor Breed explained that she is going to appoint people who are not using the school board as a political stepping stone and that those individuals are qualified and motivated to improve conditions.

To the mayor's credit, she has also been vocal about San Francisco's District Attorney for not prosecuting (what we'll call here) quality of life crimes such as shoplifting and petty theft. She plainly spoke in a press conference that the district attorney's office need to be "less tolerant of the bullshit that is destroying our city."

The panel tossed around the idea that this school board recall could be a harbinger for backlash against progressives and Democrats. If that is the case then Democrats should take a lesson from Mayor London Breed. I think we can all acknowledge that stupid political agendas abound on the farther left and the farther right alike. Democrats should turn this around and say that given that, we're choosing competency and citizens' best interests over extreme political ideology like Republicans. Use it as a positive... Just a thought.

Panel: Ashley Parker, The Washington Post; Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal, Courtney Kube, NBC News; Yamiche Alcindor, PBS Newshour

2.6.22: In The Near Term And The Long Term, Time Is Not On Putin's Side

(Sorry about missing last week, back with a vengeance.)

Despite what Vladimir Putin says about security concerns, Russia in no victim in this diplomatic standoff with NATO when you have over 100,000 troops amassed on the Ukrainian border, on two fronts - the Russian and Belarusian borders. 

Putin's main gripe is that under no circumstances should Ukraine ever join NATO, and NATO's response is that they are not going to negotiate their open-door policy of countries wanting to join. (Wanting it and actually getting in are two completely different things.) The open-door policy is meant a right to a nation maintain its sovereignty and freedom for self-determination. 

The reality is that Ukraine could be twenty years off from even being considered for NATO and by that time, they may not even want to be a member. Finland which shares a very long border with Russia and it is not a NATO member, nor is Sweden for that matter. So it's not only that, it's deeper and you have to take Putin at his word when he spouts rhetoric about Ukraine belonging to Russia. 

But why now?

Putin wants to reconstitute some semblance of the former Soviet Union and that can not be done without Ukraine, it's the keystone. At this moment, the conditions are right for an invasion - it's winter so the ground is hard for tanks and historically as Chuck Todd noted, Putin invades when his country or China is hosting the Olympics (Beijing in 2008; Sochii in 2014) because it's when the world's attention is diverted and since it's an instance where countries should put aside their differences in observance, that's the best moment to go on the offense (think The Tet Offensive in Vietnam). 

But also time is running out on Putin's delusion of having Ukraine back into a 'Soviet' fold. Putin has made it so that he'll be in office until 2036, fourteen years from now. If Russia invades Ukraine, you can bet that at least 10 of years are going to be very bloody. 

The advance of the largest ground force gathered and readied since WWII would not only be rebuke of the world order since that time, you'll see other areas in Europe and the near east also possibly erupt in conflict - renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Serbian nationalist in Bosnia. 

And, of course, a blatant disregard for a nation's sovereignty will embolden other countries to do the same, not the least of which China. Why else would President Xi stand by Putin and give his support on Ukraine. As National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said about the 5,000-word joint statement, Ukraine was not mentioned. 

However, one could conclude that part of the non-written agreement was if Putin wanted to advance into Ukraine, it would have to wait until after the Olympics in Beijing, but that only gives Putin about 3 weeks of hard winter on which to capitalize. As worth noting from Mr. Sullivan was that China will undoubtedly take a hit economically with the planned sanctions, which may be all right in the short term, but China's economy at this moment is fragile, which is real estate industry in utter turmoil. 

It is a thin red line.

Speaking of thin lines, Marc Short walked one in his interview today, namely when asked if Joe Biden was legitimately elected president, the ever-loyal former VP Chief of Staff said that Joe Biden is the "duly-elected president." But never once after Mr. Todd took different tacts, Mr. Short never once said the word legitimate in the context of the conversation.

Mr. Short did put himself on the right side of history by cooperating with the January 6th Committee and siding with his former boss that the vice president does not have the right to decertify state election results. His argument that the committee is not bipartisan doesn't hold water even if you don't agree the Speaker Pelosi's right to veto the minorities choices, especially since one of those choices was Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) who is actually a person of interest in the investigation.  And that bit about being proud to serve in the Trump Administration with negligible results is a historical stain that doesn't wash out. 

And for the record, we have to include the clip of fmr. Vice President Mike Pence at the Federalist Society rebuking his old boss.

 

Panel: Jeh Johnson, fmr. Secretary of Homeland Security; Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report; Matthew Continetti, American Enterprise Institute; Helene Cooper, The New York Times

1.23.22: In Terms of Shellacking, It's Still Premature for the Heavy Varnish

Representative Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) had it exactly right when she explained that families in her district, and this translates throughout the county writ large, are concerned about inflation and keeping their kids in school and the cost of healthcare, specifically on the point of prescription drug prices. She also said that the administration and Democrats should focus on a few things and do those few things well. Under promise and over deliver, she said, which is something that we all strive for in our jobs. However, that doesn't work if you're a politician these days. Your entire existence revolves around over-promising and under-delivering.  

President Biden has an overall approval of 43 percent, in which 'dismal' would be an understatement and 72 percent feel that the country is on the wrong track after his first year in office. Mr. Biden campaigned on bringing the country together and that simply hasn't panned out. The problem has been two pronged with Democrats trying to do too much at once and Republicans obstructing on any all legislation with the exception of tax cutting. 

Senator Bernie Sanders described it correctly that 5 months of fruitlessly negotiating with two senators in back rooms was a waste of time. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) isn't going to be for any climate legislation (and 'no,' don't give him the pen to write the legislation) and as NBC's Kristen Welker stated, no one knows what Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) is for (and 'no' she shouldn't have been censured). 

Senator Sanders advocated for a strategy, as did Representative Slotkin, of putting smaller bills on the floor for a vote, and in the case of the Senate, it's more of an imperative given the Democrats' slim majority.

With an issue like Medicare being able to negotiate prescription drug prices so that Americans will pay less is a no brainer. Why doesn't it get done? Because it's always included in bigger bills with provisions that have no way of passing, hence sinking the entire bill. 

Smaller wins to achieve incremental change is the course they're suggesting which makes complete sense but this is the United States of Attention Deficit Disorder and if we don't get it when we want there are bound to be some dissatisfied customers.

This brings us back to a bit of the 'why' as it pertains to President Biden's approval ratings. Chuck Todd explained that it was a coalition that elected Joe Biden and not the push from a large, passionate base. In electing Biden, it speaks to Americans' practical nature of government covering the basics moving the country forward. But in catering to and governing a coalition, it's inevitable that there will be over-promising and under-delivering because there are too many fragmented interests to placate everyone.

Politics is the art of compromise, but if politicians compromise one agenda for another in a coalition it will leave many dispirited and unenthused, which is what we're seeing now. "Shellacking" territory is where Mr. Todd put it in his mid-term tracking meter. We'll just say this to that, before everyone gets out their 5-gallon cans of varnish, there's a lot that can happen between now and November.

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As we stated last week, you want to see Democrats and Republicans united? If Russia incurs into, invades, strikes, attacks or vacations in Ukraine, it will cut to the quick and you'll see a unified response. And make no mistake Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was correct in saying that it will have larger implications for world order. If the Putin Regime is allowed to invade Ukraine without repercussions, what's to stop China from doing the same to Taiwan? The secretary was also correct that what ever Putin's intention, diplomacy has to be completely exhausted in a way to find a way to avoid bloodshed.

It seems unthinkable the prospect of a land war in Europe in the year 2022. Then again, an archduke was assassinated and Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, from there...

Will it come to that? We certainly hope not and that hope lies within the fact that the fortunes of all countries are too intertwined that the ripple effect would be too great. That said, our eyes are wide open.

Panel: Symone Sanders, fmr. VP Chief of Staff; Kristen Welker, NBC News; Peter Baker, The New York Times; Carlos Carbello, fmr. Republican Congressman