12.13.20: Numbers Don't Lie So Don't Even Consider Them

It's certainly great news that Pfizer's vaccine is starting to roll out across the country, with the combined effort of the private sector, namely UPS and FedEx, handling the transportation. However, for all intent and purpose, the vaccine doesn't exist in practical terms. In other words, for the time being we have to continue to live life as though there isn't one.

Francis Collins, the Director of the National Institute of Health, explained that to eliminate the virus and move back to a sense of normal we need 70 to 80 percent of the population immunized. He also expressed great concern, as have many other health professionals, that roughly 50 percent of the population for one reason or another, some valid and some not so much, isn't on board with getting vaccinated.  

Frankly, it's surprising that we've gotten this far considering one of the main reasons, of course, which is... wait for it... the politics surrounding every step of the way. When you hear that White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows threatened the FDA director with his job if he didn't approve emergency use of the vaccine and consider the speed in which it was developed, it drives skepticism on both sides of the political aisle.

In the mean time, the lack of empathy along with the tone deafness that goes with it from the president and the Senate majority leader on the toll that the pandemic is taking on the economic welfare of working Americans has compounded the misery. There is a $908 billion relief bipartisan package going through the Senate and Mitch McConnell will not bring it to a vote. Senator Chris Coons (D-DE) said he was frustrated and embarrassed by Mr. McConnell's blocking of a second relief package, laying the blame squarely at his feet. The fruit of Senator McConnell's work has manifested itself in 850,000 new unemployment claims last week. 

Mitch McConnell looks at the dollar numbers and doesn't like them. He looks at Americans as simply numbers and doesn't like us either. Speaking of numbers, it may go without saying that Donald Trump doesn't like us either because he really doesn't like the numbers.

After the Supreme Court flatly rejected the lawsuit brought by Texas' Attorney General in which 17 other states' Attorneys General signed onto, 9-0 by the way, to nullify hundreds of thousands of votes in others, not their own, the president vowed to fight on.

The thinking can only be that since numbers don't lie, they shouldn't even be considered in the first place.

But here are some numbers to consider:

3,100+ deaths per day (equivalent of 9/11) everyday for the next 30 to 60 days. 
     This is what the Director of the CDC predicted this week;

297,000+ deaths in the U.S.; 16.1 million infections
     According the the New York Times Covid-19 tracker; and

more than 100,000 small businesses have closed permanently.

But these numbers mean nothing to the Senate majority leader or the president. Kristen Welker noted that the president has commented on the election 62 percent of the time this week while only referencing the pandemic 7 percent. As we said before, the president is checked out completely from any sort of governing as all his efforts have been focused on overturning a free and fair election. (Mr. Trump is so completely checked out from governing, it makes one wonder that if he could overturn the election, how would he ever be able to check back in?)

And speaking of free and fair elections, lastly we leave you with this number, 126. This is how many Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives signed onto the aforementioned lawsuit to nullify the election results, subvert the democratic process, and act in direct defiance of the U.S. Constitution. 

OK...

We don't know who has already called for this, but without hyperbole it's important to get on the record that this column is calling for resignation letters of these Congress people. Not out of malice, but because in a moment of expedient political posturing, they did not uphold their oaths to the office in which they sit.

Panel: Kristen Welker, NBC News; Matt Bai, The Washington Post; Lanhee Chen, Stanford University

12.6.20: "Responsible People Need To Act Responsibly."

Paraphrasing himself from earlier in the week, Georgia Voting Systems Manager Gabriel Sterling said "responsible people need to act responsibly." However, what we're seeing is an abdication of responsibility with regard to both the post-election/transition and the Covid-19 response on all levels of American life. 

Mr. Sterling's tough words for Republican leaders come on the heels of one of his 20-year employees received death threats, just for doing his job. Mr. Sterling said he was done. Though Mr. Sterling voted for Mr. Trump, he also explained that the president should be held to a higher standard. Yet, it is Mr. Trump who is leading the charge of irresponsibility on both fronts.

Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute explained that Mr. Trump's rally last night in Georgia focused on the two Senate-race candidates for about 10 minutes of the 90 minute speech with the rest reserved for the president's grievances and conspiracy theories about how he lost in the state and that it was rigged... Of course this is how it was predicted to go. 

The panel generally agreed that the president's toxic anti-democratic rhetoric could suppress the vote in Georgia, giving the Democrats control of the Senate. This could very well be the case, however Steve Kornacki explained that Georgians with intention voted for a split ticket - Trump out and Republican control of the Senate - with Biden winning the state by 13K+ votes, but incumbent Senator David Perdue getting 88K+ more votes than challenger Jon Ossoff. The question here is whether Trump supporters view the president's irresponsible voter-fraud/ rigged-election rhetoric as a show or do they think it's for real. 

The president gives his supporters what they want, getting them angry and fired up in the moment, but chances are that at the end of the day, they will turn out to vote. Ms. Pletka said that if there is depressed turnout and Republicans lose even one of the seats, he will be to blame. It's difficult to imagine these two races splitting between parties.

Well that was five paragraphs too many... 

We're not making light of this totally unprecedented assault on our democracy of respecting the vote and the peace transition of power by the President of the United States no less. There is no way to minimize the fecklessness and irresponsibility of Republicans in Congress who do not accept or will not say publicly that Joe Biden is the President-elect.

But it palls in comparison to Mr. Trump walking away from any responsibility on combatting the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of leading this fight, the president has flat out quit on us. 

And if you don't think so, let these numbers soak in...

Not only did he not talk about the pandemic at his rally, but the rally itself was potentially a super spreader event. Chuck Todd asked Corona Virus Task Force Coordinator Deborah Birx about the mixed messaging coming from Administration health officials and the president. But what really can Dr. Birx say to that question at this point? She along with many other health professionals, namely Dr. Anthony Fauci, have been thrown into a political hell that they can't even understand, let alone see coming.

Dr. Birx said that she didn't want to be critical on television any individual state or official (good move) and reiterated the mitigation measures - wearing a mask, socially distancing, washing hands, not gathering in big groups - that we all should be following. 

There within lies the rub.

The populace writ large is not being responsible either. Dr. Birx mentioned that we haven't yet experienced the spike in cases from the Thanksgiving holiday. You read about public officials, Democrats in particular are guilty of this, telling their constituents to exercise mitigation but don't do it themselves. Sure, we're lacking leadership from the president and on down it's quite spotty but when you see statistics like these:

As of Dec. 6th,
     U.S. Cases: 14.6+ million
     U.S. Deaths: 281,202;

you would think people would take personal responsibility and protect not only themselves but their families as well; just as a precaution, right? Alas, that is certainly not the case and our hospital systems are being pushed beyond the limit. Even when all this ends, we'll need a public fund to assist healthcare workers with all the PTSD they are sure to suffer from in the future.

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) explained that a bi-partisan group of Senators came together over the holiday to put together a bill for Covid relief in the range of $908 billion. It's frankly not enough but it's at the very least something. This is the kind of responsibility you want to see from your Senators only to have it undone by a cynical Senate Majority Leader and a president who has not interest in the oath that he took way back when on January 20th, 2016 - to protect the American people.

Determined to hamper the transition and knee-cap the incoming president as much as possible, Donald Trump is irresponsibly putting the safety of the American people at extreme risk.

Panel: Kimberly Atkins, Boston Globe; Danielle Pletka, American Enterprise Institute; Jeff Mason, Reuters; Steve Kornacki, NBC News

11.29.20: Living in Limbo is Killing Us

There is certainly a presidential transition happening but essentially 'government' as we know it is not working. We don't mean that something is wrong with the levers of government, no, we mean the administration and congress aren't doing their jobs, hence not working.

Behind the scenes current administration officials are working with transition personnel, but at the presidential level it's non-existent. Without getting into the weeds of Mr. Trump's hold-out on this front, the ripple effect is a congress in limbo, with no real impetus to get anything done until the president decides his next move, to which Mr. Trump said that he would leave the White House if the electoral college votes for Joe Biden on December 14th, but he also said that a lot can happen between now and January 20th. Yes, a lot can happen in that time, but Americans need something to happen now on pandemic relief because we're on the cusp of a complete Covid meltdown.

At the top of the program today, Mr. Todd ripped through some troubling statistics:

     1. The United States has 4 percent of the world's population but has 19% of the world's Covid
         deaths;
     2. Currently, the United States has over 13.3 million Covid cases and 266,826 total deaths;
     3. Since Thanksgiving (three days ago), 2,704 have died from Covid-19 in the U.S.;
     4. Over 4 million Covid infections in November alone;
     5. Over 91,000 hospitalizations due to Covid-19; and
     6. 22 percent of hospitals in the United States are under staffed.

No wonder Dr. Anthony Fauci is very concerned about hospital healthcare systems breaking down because "reality is staring us right in the face." He explained that it isn't too late to do something about this, but the mitigation measures that he and all top healthcare officials are imploring people to follow are being ignored by large swaths of the populace. Let's face it, the CDC, Dr. Fauci, Secretary of HHS Alex Azar, Mike Pence, et al could say 'where a mask' on television 24/7 for a week and it still wouldn't make a difference. When asked about advising the president on speaking about mitigation measures, Dr. Fauci said that he didn't have that kind of influence with the president so he's doing all he can by appearing on national television programs, then he thanked Mr. Todd for giving him the platform. The only thing that could jump start a decline in those tragic statistics and begin to bend the curve (sidebar: Isn't curve a misnomer at this point when doctors like Dr. Fauci illustrate it as a straight line upward at a 70 degree incline?) is President Trump formally addressing the public and advising people to wear a mask. It would have that big of an effect.

What it would also do, indirectly, is that it would give the incoming Biden administration something on which they can ride coattails by continuing their mask messaging and maybe, just maybe, unite people using this one issue. OK, a big leap, but it would be a game changer.

Instead, there's no push from the current administration on Covid-19 mitigation measures or financial relief for Americans. It's prompted questions in the media about whether President Trump is trying to box in President-elect Biden on policy issues because Mr. Trump is planning on running again in 2024. Hugh Hewitt seems convinced that this is the case and wouldn't be surprised if Mr. Trump declares his candidacy on Mr. Biden's inauguration day. 

And Mr. Trump is certainly boxing in the incoming Biden administration on Iran. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Retired Admiral Mike Mullen explained that our adversaries look to take advantage of the United States during transition periods. However, it looks like our friends do as well. Mr. Todd all implied that Israel was responsible for the assassination of Iran's top nuclear scientist, Dr, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. More importantly, Iran is saying that Israel and the United States are responsible and is vowing to retaliate. As Admiral Mullen said, Israel regards a nuclear Iran as an existential threat and will do whatever it has to to prevent that. 

The incoming Biden Administration is looking to rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal, putting safeguards and inspections back in place and if you're Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, you look at the situation and see that a Biden Administration wouldn't give its blessing to killing Iran's top scientist when the U.S. is trying to rejoin the accord. With President Trump still in office, Mr. Netanyahu would have U.S. support for such an operation and for Mr. Trump it's a win as well. He has essentially cemented the elimination of any trust it would take to reconstruct the nuclear accord. 

And while decisions like this are being made in the name of the American people, they are left to fend for themselves and survive on their own without an help from the government during a pandemic health and economic catastrophe.

It's like we're all living in this weird limbo. When you live in limbo things aren't supposed to move in either direction, a holding pattern, but this limbo is killing us.

Panel: Kasie Hunt, NBC News; O. Kay Hutchinson, Director of Iowa Radio Network; Michael Eric Dyson, Vanderbilt University; Hugh Hewitt, Salem Radio Network

 

 

11.22.20: When Do We Go Back to Normaltown?

Editor of Commentary and former long time New York Post report John Podhoretz explained that he has been a conservative for 40 years and is now being put in a position of having to choose between being ostracized or getting onboard the train to Crazytown, getting there and then bombing Normaltown.

That's one way to put.

Rudolph Guiliani, the president's personal lawyer, is certainly the welcoming party into Crazytown after accusing the a dictator dead for 7 years of conspiring with the Governor of Georgia. Mr. Trump's legal team's press conference was widely panned, and that is kindly understating it. Yes, it was a shame that Mr. Guiliani had hair dye running down the sides of his face, but the real shame is that he's still wearing that NY Yankees championship ring. At this point, he doesn't really deserve to wear it (a stain on a great team) and besides, the Yankees have a policy of no facial hair.

Honestly, we're still trying to decide whether the President and Republican Leadership's denial and stalling of the inevitable is a threat to Democracy, but it's certainly a threat in other ways, namely in battling the Covid-19 pandemic. As we said last week, the president has given up on doing his job, which makes it more imperative that new leadership gets in the door a week ago.

In the past week, there have been over 1.8 new infection cases with Friday setting a single day record of 196,000 plus positive tests. There are over a quarter of a million people dead (256K+).

That's the threat. As the Secretary of State of Georgia said, "The numbers do not lie."

We would posit that we are in Crazytown and standing at the gate to the road back to Normaltown is being block by the President of the United States. As to the question of when, if the president has his way it will be as late (and as deadly) as possible.

NBC's Hallie Jackson explained that even if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) were to come out say that Joe Biden is the president-elect that the rest of the Republican leaders would follow suit, but... This is would make little difference in the mind of the president.  This speaks to the much discussed (including today's panel) of the hold that Mr. Trump has on the Republican party, and is his party, in which he'll be the kingmaker and is already talking of another presidential run in 2024. 

We're quite skeptical of all that. A lot can happen in four years, and a lot will happen. Mr. Trump may continue to make a lot of noise and maintain his following, but the Republican power brokers will slip away from him and in another four years, who will he have to work with him? If a Biden Administration gets the pandemic under control and the economy gets better, i.e. displaying better competency in governing, are Americans going to go back to chaos? A truly American trait is that we're always looking forward toward the future. The downside of that is our sense of our own history is lost, long term and short term history.

In the immediate, Republican Senators such as Kevin Cramer (R-ND) has to "thread the needle" when it comes to explaining that the Biden transition team should have already started without acknowledging him as the president-elect. Some will ask, when will all this end? There is in fact a hard deadline of December 14th when all the states have to have by law their vote tallies certified. That's too long, but anything after that, when Joe Biden is officially certified as the winner, is unlawful in holding up a transition.

One last thing, give credit to both Dr. Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp and to Dr. Anthony Fauci. Dr. Slaoui did an admirable job is staying away from Mr. Todd's questions that leaned into the political and the transition. As he should; he's just trying to serve the greater good for public health, no matter the administration. Same with Dr. Fauci who implored us, once again, to wear masks, socially distance, wash our hands frequently and not to gather in large groups. What this column would call, doing the right thing. 

It's going to be a while from now, but he did say that help is on the way. With that, we give you this song/ video clip goes out to Dr. Fauci and our healthcare workers.

(at least treat yourself to the first 3:40)

For our American audience, have a Great and Safe Thanksgiving! And the rest of our audience around the world, a humble thank you, and we wish all good health and safety.

Panel: Hallie Jackson, NBC News; Anna Palmer, Politico; John Podhoretz, Commentary; Eddie Glaude, Jr., Princeton University

11.15.20: Take Responsibility or Get Off The Pot

It would be easy to start this column by stating that the President is this or that for not accepting the result of the election and to concede, but the conversation has little room for frivolity and name calling. Infections from Covid-19 reached a single day record on Friday with over 176,000 positive cases and 49 states seeing sharp spikes in infection rates and hospitalizations. 

Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (R) said that he expects Joe Biden to be president on January 20th, 2021 and that he was pleased that President Trump had tweeted out in part that he's acknowledging that Mr. Biden won. The first sentence of that tweet: He won because the Election was Rigged. 

We can not speculate on what Mr. Trump is thinking, but if he is still thinking he won that he'll have a second term (in opposition of fact), then he needs to do the work of a president. Infectious disease expert, Dr. Michael Osterholm said that we are entering the most dangerous public health crisis since 1918 and that the "future is in our hands" in terms of fighting it. But, frankly, it's not in our hands. While the president is sequestered in the White House, he is not pushing Congress for a second relief bill that states desperately need. The hands-off approach that the Trump Administration is taking right now could lead to another 150,000 deaths before January 20th. 

This refusal to honor the result of the election or at the very least, the possibility of a transition, a national strategy will be delayed even further. Chuck Todd asked the incoming Biden Administration Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, is the transition team has had an informal conversations with government doctors and disease experts, to which he answered no because the General Services Administration hasn't released the funds necessary that by law start would start the transition. Until then, the incoming Biden Administration can not speak to anyone. This column has never even given a thought to the GSA before but now we know that a Trump appointee named Emily Murphy is refusing to accept the results of the election. Ms. Murphy is single handedly blocking government from functioning and is subverting the democratic process. 

This may all seem like just politics for Mr. Trump, but a quarter of a million Americans are dead and as Dr. Osterholm explained, our healthcare system is breaking.

Governor Hutchinson said that it was important that the president recognized the legitimacy of the election and judging by his tone given the severe challenges his state is facing due to the pandemic, he wants it to start happening sooner rather than later. Arkansas, like many other states, need help and rightfully, the governor can wait any longer.

Senators Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) along with other Republican Senators are still advocating for the president NOT to concede the election so that the party can fund raise for the Georgia Senate run-offs. It's an obvious political strategy that obviously pays not an ounce of consideration to the crises - health and economic - that this country faces. Long-time Republican strategist Al Cardenas explained that despite the political maneuvering during the transition the governing part has to be smooth, but he concluded by saying we're in a meltdown in that capacity right now.

Finally, just a soon as we heard Governor Hutchinson say that he was glad that the president is coming around, by the end of the program NBC's Carol Lee reported that Mr. Trump tweeted that he "concedes nothing."

That's just great. If this is the case, he has to either govern or concede; and if he's not going to concede then he needs to take responsibility. The president can't have it both ways. If anyone else in this country were doing what he's doing, a person would be justified in saying what every American understands, "Shit, or get off the pot."

Panel: Carol Lee, NBC News; Maria Teresa Kumar, Voto Latino; Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic; Al Cardenas, Republican Strategist

11.8.20: The Outcome of a Historic Election, in Perspective

History was made yesterday with the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, despite what President Trump said yesterday and this morning. For the United States, it's long overdue that a woman serve in the executive branch of our government, and this is something that all Americans should be proud of. (Unfortunately, that's not the case. More on this to come). However, for supporters of Joe Biden and Donald Trump need to keep things in perspective. 

Setting aside the Senate run-off races in Georgia, in a way everyone got what they wanted. Of course there is going to be disappointment for Donald Trump supporters but the country now has a president that is empathetic and aims to govern all Americans instead of only looking to govern half the country. Meanwhile, Republicans gained seats in the House and could still control Senate. The checks and balances still remain. As The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan said, divided government isn't the worst thing to happen.

Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) said that this election was a referendum on one person and not on conservative policies, which he said Americans largely support. The latter point is debatable but given the election outcomes, it's not completely off-base. However, on the day after the calling of the presidential election, the press is already framing friction in that President-elect is a moderate and the progressive wing of the party is already calling out moderation, most notably via New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. 

Here again, some perspective is needed. Kate Benningfield, Biden campaign chief, and Congressman James Clyburn (D-SC) both outlined the Biden agenda as the most progressive agenda ever put forward by a Democratic president. It begs the question that Mr. Clyburn in fact posed, which is what exactly is the definition of progressive? You have consider Ms. Ocasio Cortez's positions as you would consider say Jim Jordan's views - both are outside the mainstream of American politics. That's not to say that there isn't a place for both - it's part of the big tent that is America.

As Mr. Romney explained, the president has every right to contest vote counts and file for recounts in states where the totals were close, but there is no place for Mr. Trump's rhetoric that there was fraud (there was none) or that Democrats rigged the election. This is exactly the type of irresponsible statements that got Mr. Trump voted out of office. 

The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman explained that this election has ended with more polarization, not less and that there were blind spots in the polling data. Ya think? The polls haven't been accurately reflective of presidential election year races since at least 2012 and they're not getting better on the granular level. Anyone can call a presidential race, hell, this column called it accurately, but when it comes to analyzing data for congressional races it's becoming more evident that professional pollsters have been wrong in predicting outcomes in contested districts. This along with media writ large creating narratives that don't necessary play out how they describe only contributes to further polarization.

Speaking of which, post election this column was on a chat with supporters of both candidates and one supporter of Mr. Trump in particular called Mr. Biden senile and Ms. Harris a communist whore. This is the unfortunate legacy of Donald Trump's presidency and frankly, that's why he needed to go. The country is simply exhausted by this toxic partisan rhetoric, and as we've all seen it's counterproductive to the general health of the country. Once this column saw those comments, all we could do is wish the person well moving forward. 

On the topic of legacy, it is now, post-election, where Mr. Trump will cement his legacy. What he does or doesn't do in this transition period will shape perceptions for decades. Will Mr. Trump concede the race, never and that's sad. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reported that Mr. Trump will most likely just check out and much of the responsibility will fall to VP Mike Pence. We hope this is not the case, but on a human level, it makes sense. Think about it, Donald Trump has never lost anything so clearly as he has lost this presidential race and that definitely takes a toll on one's psyche. We understand but that understanding does not come with sympathy because Mr. Trump is responsible for the division he's sown, of which there will be more to come. 

As we've said before in this column, if the enormous cruise ship that is the United States sometimes tacks to the left and sometimes to the right, but too hard and too fast either way and the ship tips over and sinks us all. One thing that is for certain is that we will always be moving forward, never back. And no matter how painful for some, this country will move forward no matter what President Trump does at this point. The American president acting like a childish sore loser doesn't help this country in the slightest. 

As Americans, we congratulate Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris's victory and take pride in the momentous history made last night, as long as we keep it all in perspective.

Panel: Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal; Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Cornell Belcher, Democratic strategist; David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report

11.1.20: Soon the Cosmic Political Universe of "What-if's" Will Stop Swirling... and it Can't Come Soon Enough

We're two days away from the election deadline - Tuesday, November 3rd for those not paying attention -  and in the cosmic political universe of "what if's" anything can still happen with various, variable polls and pollsters trading election night scenarios.

The only certainties at this point is that the United States has recorded 9.2 million Covid-19 infections and of 230,000 deaths from the disease. In spite of this objective failure on the part of the administration, the presidential contest and Senate races despite all the pontification are tight. 

Last week this column provided some predictions of how we thought election night would play out and as ever more considerations come in about how the stars will align, we still see the same outcomes. Today's panelists are equally as confounded as to how things will play out, but their conversation starters, we found edifying.

Chuck Todd, being from the state of Florida, said that it is a state that is never won the same way twice. If you follow state to state politics, you intrinsically know this, but when it's said aloud, it's so damn true and that's why it's still anyone's race in Florida.

As for Georgia, former Senate Claire McCaskill said that it's surprising for Democrats to be talking about and campaigning in states like Georgia and Texas at this point in the race, but especially the former with not one contested Senate race but two. Just writing about it seems borderline ridiculous, but in ridiculous times we are in, indeed. The important thing to watch in the Georgia senate race is if either candidate gets over 50% of vote. If neither breaks that threshold it goes to a run-off as the second open seat is headed for. Mr. Ossoff (D) does have moment as Sen. McCaskill explained but enough to avoid a run-off is anyone's guess. If Georgia does in fact go to the Democrats, the credit will and should be rightfully given to Stacey Abrams and the continual fight against suppressing the vote and also turning it out in communities of color.

North Carolina will be a key early indicator on how the race is shaping up because the Senate race is linked to the presidential race. Really, does anyone see a voter in North Carolina splitting the ticket? Rich Lowry pointed out that the state is vulnerable because Senator Thom Tillis (R) is a terrible politician and is in lock-step with the president, but that also Democrat Cal Cunningham has an infidelity scandal. One can't help but see the irony that Mr. Todd pointed out, that the president's infidelity scandals may have diminished the impact that it has on voters' attitudes. What an election...

And then there's Pennsylvania... And if you're from there as this column is there's the old joke that between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is like Alabama. (And no, that's not what this column thinks of the state.) The key to Pennsylvania is turnout and if the Democratic voters turn out they win, but the enthusiasm isn't always there, clearly. Republicans for their part need places like Erie and the suburbs of the aforementioned cities to go their way. Not an easy sell for either candidate and that's why we do think that the race is much closer than the polls suggest.

To close it out, if you haven't yet, go VOTE, VOTE, VOTE! And yes, who ever you support. Also, be patient with the counting and state reporting because no matter how long it takes, that's too much time. The map is certainly bigger in terms of contested and close races and don't forget about the House races because it's more vital for Democrats to pick up seats than it even is for Republicans. 

All of which will make for a suspenseful night on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning and soon this cosmic swirling political universe of "what-if's" will end and you'll be able to stop asking if the stars have aligned, if Mercury was in retrograde, if another discovered planet is in the Goldilocks Zone, if we can get back from political Uranus, if Space Force is a thing, if we can and need to get to Mars, and if in fact there is water on the moon.

And if you think we've overdone it on the outer space metaphor, it's because this entire election season has been outer limits.

See you on the other side.

Panel: Kasie Hunt, NBC News; Kristen Welker, NBC News; Claire McCaskill, fmr. senator (D-MO); Rich Lowry, The National Review

10.25.20: With Nine Days to Go Until the Election Deadline, It's Time to Put Up or Shut Up

With nine days to go until the voting deadline on November 3rd, it's time to make closing arguments and put up or shut up. Since 50 million Americans have already cast their votes, a week from this Tuesday is not so much election day as it is the deadline to get your vote in.

In these final days of the campaign, it's still anyone race but the warning signs for a bad Republican outcomes are growing and it's starts where it all began four years ago and that's with the top of the ticket. President Trump's inability to articulate a vision for his second term is crippling his campaign because simply attacking your opponent with unfounded accusations isn't going to win the day. 

The president says that he's is tired of talking about "COVID, COVID, COVID...," but it is precisely because of COVID-19 that his campaign and reelection prospects are flagging. Frankly, if the administration put in the work eight months ago, the pandemic would still be with us, but maybe 100,000 Americans less would have perished and the president could say, honestly, that every we could do has been done. Then he could have truly made a sound argument for a post-pandemic America. 

Alas... 

This is not what happened and this coup-de-gras failure has exacerbated all the other outrageousness behavior and negligence throughout the president's first term.

With all that said, it's time...

Many people have asked this column, straight up, who is going to win the presidential election. In our answer, we have been taking a breath before answering because you must consider where it may head before knowing who ultimately wins. 

Because early voting, especially mail-in ballots heavily favors Democrats, not all the vote totals will in on election night while same-day voting is thought to favor Republicans and at the end of election night it will show Mr. Trump leading. This seems to be the common wisdom for many political pundits and the worry for many Joe Biden supporters, but this isn't what is going to happen. 

By the morning of November 4th, Joe Biden will in fact be ahead and as more votes are counted, it will confirm or even enhance his lead. Yes, it is that bad for President. This week's debate didn't move the needle in either direction if only to affirm that VP Biden has a much better knowledge of the issues and the nuances surrounding them. (Let's face it, if we didn't grade Mr. Trump on such a curve where it says simply that if you don't shout, you still make sense and graded him on the same scale as we do Mr. Biden, then the former VP still cleaned his clock.)

We'll go on record to say that ultimately Joe Biden will be the next president.

With that existential dread over with, let's get to the fun stuff - the Senate races.

During the panel discussion, Mr. Todd asked each individual which state race he or she is watching, as follows:

Amy Walter: North Carolina where Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is still ahead of incumbent Thom Tillis despite a late breaking sex scandal.

Mark Murray: Iowa where it's an even race at the presidential and senatorial levels. Seniors are playing a role switching support to Biden and incumbent Joni Ernst doesn't know the break even cost on a bushel of soybeans ($10 btw).

Yamiche Alcindor: South Carolina where Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his life against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison who is pulling out all the stops with the incredible amount of campaign contributions he received.

Anna Palmer: Maine where Susan Collins tries to maintain her balancing act of being a bi-partisan moderate Republican but her lack of being just that and her gullibility when it comes to her judgement on President Trump.

We're watching this and a few more.

Starting with North Carolina and Maine, we think that Democrats will take both races. North Carolinians won't split their ticket and Joe Biden is up in the state. As for Maine, it just seems like the people there are simply fed up with Susan Collins rolling over at critical moments of Mr. Trump's presidency. Cal Cunningham (D) in North Carolina and Sara Gideon (D) in Maine.

For control of the Senate, Chuck Todd outlined the following state where the race is a toss up: Arizona, Montana, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, in addition to the aforementioned Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina and Iowa.

Iowa is close and historically does swing back and forth and this time around, we think ultimately Iowa is going for a change, will not split the ticket and go for both Joe Biden and Theresa Greenfield in the Senate.

South Carolina, on the other hand, is going to disappoint Democrats and Jaime Harrison is going to come up just short in race that would have thought to have been closer in the end. Lindsey Graham loses his standing, his power, his influence but not his seat in the Senate. 

For Republicans, Arizona is gone. Martha McSally, who was appointed to the seat after losing her previous bid for the senate against Kyrstan Sinema, has done nothing to convince people that she has earned the seat. Meanwhile, there is Mark Kelly, astronaut and American hero who is married to former Congresswoman Gabbie Giffords. Mark Kelly running away.

In Colorado, Corey Gardner doesn't even seem to be running for reelection because he knows the former governor John Hickenlooper is going to win in a wash.

As for Georgia, Amy Walter explained that it would be bad for Democrats if senate control came to two run-off elections in Georgia in January. However, we don't think it's going to come to that and Democrats will have control by the time the Georgia senate rates are decided. It's a tough one to decide so with permission, we'll say that Georgia is either going to be split with one Senator from each party or it stays in full Republican control, by a small margin.

So there it is, we've put up, so now we'll shut up.

Panel: Yamich Alcindor, PBS News Hour; Amy Walter, Cook Political Report; Anna Palmer, Politico; Mark Murray, NBC News

10.18.20: Secretary Alex Azar Explains Mitigation Fatigue, But For Clarification...

As of this writing, there are twenty-six states seeing a significant increase in cornoavirus infections, which going into cold and flu season could put significant stress on a healthcare system already stretched beyond its limits.  

Because of this fact, Chuck Todd acknowledged the urgency in Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar's voice to adhere by the "3 W's" - Wash you hands, Watch your distance and Wear a mask. Until we have a vaccine, he said, these are the measures that he's asking Americans to take. It's a message that all people should take to heart, so then why is this message so difficult for the president, Mr. Todd asked the secretary.

And then...

Mr. Azar explained that because of mitigation fatigue it's difficult for all western democracies, never addressing the president's dangerous messaging. He said that we're weeks away from having vaccines apply for FDA approval, something that we should be "celebrating," he exclaimed. Pardon if we're not in a celebratory mood. Then after equivocating on whether it is administration policy to advocate for herd immunity, something pushed by the White House's resident quack Dr. Scott Atlas, Mr. Azar finally came around to say 'no.' 

Secretary Azar explained mitigation fatigue inasmuch as the populace is tired of being responsible in taking the measures he's advocating and that the president has disdain for. We get, people are tired of wearing masks.

However...

We're also mitigating the fatigue of seeing an administration abdicating its responsibility on the coronavirus.

We're mitigating the fatigue of a president who constantly sells out our troops and our allies.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the stress of an orange human being bombarding our thoughts every day.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the racial animus and economic disaster that this president has wrought upon the country. 

We're mitigating the fatigue of so many lies this president has told.

We're mitigating the fatigue of wanting this election to be over.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the loathing we feel at the prospect of Mr. Trump winning reelection. 

So Secretary Azar, let's please have that discussion about mitigating fatigue, because as Mark Leibovitch explained, there's going to be no pivot on the part of the president. The press keeps talking about how if the president could pivot his messaging... Ain't gonna happen. His speeches will continue to spray divisiveness, false science and undemocratic ideas like "fit in a shan," (if you get our meaning).  

Ten days after 13 people, now 14, were indicted for planning a plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, the president campaign in the state advocated for "locking her up." Governor Whitmer said that she didn't want to discuss the danger to politicians but in fact the danger in the face of 220,000 people having died from Covid-19. She also said that it's disturbing that the president hasn't denounced the the threat against her and her family, but that she was going to continue to do her job. Unlike Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) who is not a profile in courage as The Washington Post's Ashley Parker explained for his trashing of the president on a campaign conference call with 17,000+ supports, Governor Whitmer is such a profile. She continues to speak out despite all this. And keep in mind, the governor and her family (young kids) had been living with this threat for months before the arrests were made.

Lastly, we'd be remiss if we didn't comment on the sobering reality check provided by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, who does not share Secretary Azar's optimism. There are two ways to achieve herd immunity - through vaccination or a massive death total. Vaccination, Dr. Osterholm explained, won't be widely available until the third quarter of next year, maybe sooner. So if we don't want massive death until then we have to fight through the fatigue and continue to mitigate. To do that, Dr. Osterholm explained that we need consistent messaging that is science based, something he said we haven't had from the beginning. 

So there's that... Boy, are we tired.

 

Panel: Ashley Parker, The Washington Post; Donna Edwards, fmr. congresswoman and Post columnist; Mark Leibovitch, New York Times Magazine; Pat McCrory, fmr. governor of North Carolina