11.8.20: The Outcome of a Historic Election, in Perspective

History was made yesterday with the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, despite what President Trump said yesterday and this morning. For the United States, it's long overdue that a woman serve in the executive branch of our government, and this is something that all Americans should be proud of. (Unfortunately, that's not the case. More on this to come). However, for supporters of Joe Biden and Donald Trump need to keep things in perspective. 

Setting aside the Senate run-off races in Georgia, in a way everyone got what they wanted. Of course there is going to be disappointment for Donald Trump supporters but the country now has a president that is empathetic and aims to govern all Americans instead of only looking to govern half the country. Meanwhile, Republicans gained seats in the House and could still control Senate. The checks and balances still remain. As The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan said, divided government isn't the worst thing to happen.

Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) said that this election was a referendum on one person and not on conservative policies, which he said Americans largely support. The latter point is debatable but given the election outcomes, it's not completely off-base. However, on the day after the calling of the presidential election, the press is already framing friction in that President-elect is a moderate and the progressive wing of the party is already calling out moderation, most notably via New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. 

Here again, some perspective is needed. Kate Benningfield, Biden campaign chief, and Congressman James Clyburn (D-SC) both outlined the Biden agenda as the most progressive agenda ever put forward by a Democratic president. It begs the question that Mr. Clyburn in fact posed, which is what exactly is the definition of progressive? You have consider Ms. Ocasio Cortez's positions as you would consider say Jim Jordan's views - both are outside the mainstream of American politics. That's not to say that there isn't a place for both - it's part of the big tent that is America.

As Mr. Romney explained, the president has every right to contest vote counts and file for recounts in states where the totals were close, but there is no place for Mr. Trump's rhetoric that there was fraud (there was none) or that Democrats rigged the election. This is exactly the type of irresponsible statements that got Mr. Trump voted out of office. 

The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman explained that this election has ended with more polarization, not less and that there were blind spots in the polling data. Ya think? The polls haven't been accurately reflective of presidential election year races since at least 2012 and they're not getting better on the granular level. Anyone can call a presidential race, hell, this column called it accurately, but when it comes to analyzing data for congressional races it's becoming more evident that professional pollsters have been wrong in predicting outcomes in contested districts. This along with media writ large creating narratives that don't necessary play out how they describe only contributes to further polarization.

Speaking of which, post election this column was on a chat with supporters of both candidates and one supporter of Mr. Trump in particular called Mr. Biden senile and Ms. Harris a communist whore. This is the unfortunate legacy of Donald Trump's presidency and frankly, that's why he needed to go. The country is simply exhausted by this toxic partisan rhetoric, and as we've all seen it's counterproductive to the general health of the country. Once this column saw those comments, all we could do is wish the person well moving forward. 

On the topic of legacy, it is now, post-election, where Mr. Trump will cement his legacy. What he does or doesn't do in this transition period will shape perceptions for decades. Will Mr. Trump concede the race, never and that's sad. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reported that Mr. Trump will most likely just check out and much of the responsibility will fall to VP Mike Pence. We hope this is not the case, but on a human level, it makes sense. Think about it, Donald Trump has never lost anything so clearly as he has lost this presidential race and that definitely takes a toll on one's psyche. We understand but that understanding does not come with sympathy because Mr. Trump is responsible for the division he's sown, of which there will be more to come. 

As we've said before in this column, if the enormous cruise ship that is the United States sometimes tacks to the left and sometimes to the right, but too hard and too fast either way and the ship tips over and sinks us all. One thing that is for certain is that we will always be moving forward, never back. And no matter how painful for some, this country will move forward no matter what President Trump does at this point. The American president acting like a childish sore loser doesn't help this country in the slightest. 

As Americans, we congratulate Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris's victory and take pride in the momentous history made last night, as long as we keep it all in perspective.

Panel: Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal; Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Cornell Belcher, Democratic strategist; David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report

11.1.20: Soon the Cosmic Political Universe of "What-if's" Will Stop Swirling... and it Can't Come Soon Enough

We're two days away from the election deadline - Tuesday, November 3rd for those not paying attention -  and in the cosmic political universe of "what if's" anything can still happen with various, variable polls and pollsters trading election night scenarios.

The only certainties at this point is that the United States has recorded 9.2 million Covid-19 infections and of 230,000 deaths from the disease. In spite of this objective failure on the part of the administration, the presidential contest and Senate races despite all the pontification are tight. 

Last week this column provided some predictions of how we thought election night would play out and as ever more considerations come in about how the stars will align, we still see the same outcomes. Today's panelists are equally as confounded as to how things will play out, but their conversation starters, we found edifying.

Chuck Todd, being from the state of Florida, said that it is a state that is never won the same way twice. If you follow state to state politics, you intrinsically know this, but when it's said aloud, it's so damn true and that's why it's still anyone's race in Florida.

As for Georgia, former Senate Claire McCaskill said that it's surprising for Democrats to be talking about and campaigning in states like Georgia and Texas at this point in the race, but especially the former with not one contested Senate race but two. Just writing about it seems borderline ridiculous, but in ridiculous times we are in, indeed. The important thing to watch in the Georgia senate race is if either candidate gets over 50% of vote. If neither breaks that threshold it goes to a run-off as the second open seat is headed for. Mr. Ossoff (D) does have moment as Sen. McCaskill explained but enough to avoid a run-off is anyone's guess. If Georgia does in fact go to the Democrats, the credit will and should be rightfully given to Stacey Abrams and the continual fight against suppressing the vote and also turning it out in communities of color.

North Carolina will be a key early indicator on how the race is shaping up because the Senate race is linked to the presidential race. Really, does anyone see a voter in North Carolina splitting the ticket? Rich Lowry pointed out that the state is vulnerable because Senator Thom Tillis (R) is a terrible politician and is in lock-step with the president, but that also Democrat Cal Cunningham has an infidelity scandal. One can't help but see the irony that Mr. Todd pointed out, that the president's infidelity scandals may have diminished the impact that it has on voters' attitudes. What an election...

And then there's Pennsylvania... And if you're from there as this column is there's the old joke that between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is like Alabama. (And no, that's not what this column thinks of the state.) The key to Pennsylvania is turnout and if the Democratic voters turn out they win, but the enthusiasm isn't always there, clearly. Republicans for their part need places like Erie and the suburbs of the aforementioned cities to go their way. Not an easy sell for either candidate and that's why we do think that the race is much closer than the polls suggest.

To close it out, if you haven't yet, go VOTE, VOTE, VOTE! And yes, who ever you support. Also, be patient with the counting and state reporting because no matter how long it takes, that's too much time. The map is certainly bigger in terms of contested and close races and don't forget about the House races because it's more vital for Democrats to pick up seats than it even is for Republicans. 

All of which will make for a suspenseful night on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning and soon this cosmic swirling political universe of "what-if's" will end and you'll be able to stop asking if the stars have aligned, if Mercury was in retrograde, if another discovered planet is in the Goldilocks Zone, if we can get back from political Uranus, if Space Force is a thing, if we can and need to get to Mars, and if in fact there is water on the moon.

And if you think we've overdone it on the outer space metaphor, it's because this entire election season has been outer limits.

See you on the other side.

Panel: Kasie Hunt, NBC News; Kristen Welker, NBC News; Claire McCaskill, fmr. senator (D-MO); Rich Lowry, The National Review

10.25.20: With Nine Days to Go Until the Election Deadline, It's Time to Put Up or Shut Up

With nine days to go until the voting deadline on November 3rd, it's time to make closing arguments and put up or shut up. Since 50 million Americans have already cast their votes, a week from this Tuesday is not so much election day as it is the deadline to get your vote in.

In these final days of the campaign, it's still anyone race but the warning signs for a bad Republican outcomes are growing and it's starts where it all began four years ago and that's with the top of the ticket. President Trump's inability to articulate a vision for his second term is crippling his campaign because simply attacking your opponent with unfounded accusations isn't going to win the day. 

The president says that he's is tired of talking about "COVID, COVID, COVID...," but it is precisely because of COVID-19 that his campaign and reelection prospects are flagging. Frankly, if the administration put in the work eight months ago, the pandemic would still be with us, but maybe 100,000 Americans less would have perished and the president could say, honestly, that every we could do has been done. Then he could have truly made a sound argument for a post-pandemic America. 

Alas... 

This is not what happened and this coup-de-gras failure has exacerbated all the other outrageousness behavior and negligence throughout the president's first term.

With all that said, it's time...

Many people have asked this column, straight up, who is going to win the presidential election. In our answer, we have been taking a breath before answering because you must consider where it may head before knowing who ultimately wins. 

Because early voting, especially mail-in ballots heavily favors Democrats, not all the vote totals will in on election night while same-day voting is thought to favor Republicans and at the end of election night it will show Mr. Trump leading. This seems to be the common wisdom for many political pundits and the worry for many Joe Biden supporters, but this isn't what is going to happen. 

By the morning of November 4th, Joe Biden will in fact be ahead and as more votes are counted, it will confirm or even enhance his lead. Yes, it is that bad for President. This week's debate didn't move the needle in either direction if only to affirm that VP Biden has a much better knowledge of the issues and the nuances surrounding them. (Let's face it, if we didn't grade Mr. Trump on such a curve where it says simply that if you don't shout, you still make sense and graded him on the same scale as we do Mr. Biden, then the former VP still cleaned his clock.)

We'll go on record to say that ultimately Joe Biden will be the next president.

With that existential dread over with, let's get to the fun stuff - the Senate races.

During the panel discussion, Mr. Todd asked each individual which state race he or she is watching, as follows:

Amy Walter: North Carolina where Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is still ahead of incumbent Thom Tillis despite a late breaking sex scandal.

Mark Murray: Iowa where it's an even race at the presidential and senatorial levels. Seniors are playing a role switching support to Biden and incumbent Joni Ernst doesn't know the break even cost on a bushel of soybeans ($10 btw).

Yamiche Alcindor: South Carolina where Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his life against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison who is pulling out all the stops with the incredible amount of campaign contributions he received.

Anna Palmer: Maine where Susan Collins tries to maintain her balancing act of being a bi-partisan moderate Republican but her lack of being just that and her gullibility when it comes to her judgement on President Trump.

We're watching this and a few more.

Starting with North Carolina and Maine, we think that Democrats will take both races. North Carolinians won't split their ticket and Joe Biden is up in the state. As for Maine, it just seems like the people there are simply fed up with Susan Collins rolling over at critical moments of Mr. Trump's presidency. Cal Cunningham (D) in North Carolina and Sara Gideon (D) in Maine.

For control of the Senate, Chuck Todd outlined the following state where the race is a toss up: Arizona, Montana, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, in addition to the aforementioned Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina and Iowa.

Iowa is close and historically does swing back and forth and this time around, we think ultimately Iowa is going for a change, will not split the ticket and go for both Joe Biden and Theresa Greenfield in the Senate.

South Carolina, on the other hand, is going to disappoint Democrats and Jaime Harrison is going to come up just short in race that would have thought to have been closer in the end. Lindsey Graham loses his standing, his power, his influence but not his seat in the Senate. 

For Republicans, Arizona is gone. Martha McSally, who was appointed to the seat after losing her previous bid for the senate against Kyrstan Sinema, has done nothing to convince people that she has earned the seat. Meanwhile, there is Mark Kelly, astronaut and American hero who is married to former Congresswoman Gabbie Giffords. Mark Kelly running away.

In Colorado, Corey Gardner doesn't even seem to be running for reelection because he knows the former governor John Hickenlooper is going to win in a wash.

As for Georgia, Amy Walter explained that it would be bad for Democrats if senate control came to two run-off elections in Georgia in January. However, we don't think it's going to come to that and Democrats will have control by the time the Georgia senate rates are decided. It's a tough one to decide so with permission, we'll say that Georgia is either going to be split with one Senator from each party or it stays in full Republican control, by a small margin.

So there it is, we've put up, so now we'll shut up.

Panel: Yamich Alcindor, PBS News Hour; Amy Walter, Cook Political Report; Anna Palmer, Politico; Mark Murray, NBC News

10.18.20: Secretary Alex Azar Explains Mitigation Fatigue, But For Clarification...

As of this writing, there are twenty-six states seeing a significant increase in cornoavirus infections, which going into cold and flu season could put significant stress on a healthcare system already stretched beyond its limits.  

Because of this fact, Chuck Todd acknowledged the urgency in Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar's voice to adhere by the "3 W's" - Wash you hands, Watch your distance and Wear a mask. Until we have a vaccine, he said, these are the measures that he's asking Americans to take. It's a message that all people should take to heart, so then why is this message so difficult for the president, Mr. Todd asked the secretary.

And then...

Mr. Azar explained that because of mitigation fatigue it's difficult for all western democracies, never addressing the president's dangerous messaging. He said that we're weeks away from having vaccines apply for FDA approval, something that we should be "celebrating," he exclaimed. Pardon if we're not in a celebratory mood. Then after equivocating on whether it is administration policy to advocate for herd immunity, something pushed by the White House's resident quack Dr. Scott Atlas, Mr. Azar finally came around to say 'no.' 

Secretary Azar explained mitigation fatigue inasmuch as the populace is tired of being responsible in taking the measures he's advocating and that the president has disdain for. We get, people are tired of wearing masks.

However...

We're also mitigating the fatigue of seeing an administration abdicating its responsibility on the coronavirus.

We're mitigating the fatigue of a president who constantly sells out our troops and our allies.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the stress of an orange human being bombarding our thoughts every day.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the racial animus and economic disaster that this president has wrought upon the country. 

We're mitigating the fatigue of so many lies this president has told.

We're mitigating the fatigue of wanting this election to be over.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the loathing we feel at the prospect of Mr. Trump winning reelection. 

So Secretary Azar, let's please have that discussion about mitigating fatigue, because as Mark Leibovitch explained, there's going to be no pivot on the part of the president. The press keeps talking about how if the president could pivot his messaging... Ain't gonna happen. His speeches will continue to spray divisiveness, false science and undemocratic ideas like "fit in a shan," (if you get our meaning).  

Ten days after 13 people, now 14, were indicted for planning a plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, the president campaign in the state advocated for "locking her up." Governor Whitmer said that she didn't want to discuss the danger to politicians but in fact the danger in the face of 220,000 people having died from Covid-19. She also said that it's disturbing that the president hasn't denounced the the threat against her and her family, but that she was going to continue to do her job. Unlike Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) who is not a profile in courage as The Washington Post's Ashley Parker explained for his trashing of the president on a campaign conference call with 17,000+ supports, Governor Whitmer is such a profile. She continues to speak out despite all this. And keep in mind, the governor and her family (young kids) had been living with this threat for months before the arrests were made.

Lastly, we'd be remiss if we didn't comment on the sobering reality check provided by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, who does not share Secretary Azar's optimism. There are two ways to achieve herd immunity - through vaccination or a massive death total. Vaccination, Dr. Osterholm explained, won't be widely available until the third quarter of next year, maybe sooner. So if we don't want massive death until then we have to fight through the fatigue and continue to mitigate. To do that, Dr. Osterholm explained that we need consistent messaging that is science based, something he said we haven't had from the beginning. 

So there's that... Boy, are we tired.

 

Panel: Ashley Parker, The Washington Post; Donna Edwards, fmr. congresswoman and Post columnist; Mark Leibovitch, New York Times Magazine; Pat McCrory, fmr. governor of North Carolina

10.11.20: Dim Prospects for the Super Spreader in Chief and Senate Republicans

"It was a very good week for Senate Republicans," said Hugh Hewitt with 23 days until the election. That may be true in North Carolina where Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham has to now respond to allegations of an affair. Otherwise, it's difficult to see how Senate Republicans have benefited this week from a president who continues to be cavalier (that's being charitable) in his messaging about the virus. His positive diagnosis and then the less-than-forthcoming medical information about his condition have left people to label the president as a "super spreader" of the virus. Coupled with disastrous debates by Marth McSally (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), the last of whom got his clock cleaned by Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. 

There are two Republican senators of the judiciary committee who have tested positive for the coronavirus, but the Republican-controlled Senate is pushing ahead with the Supreme Court confirmation while at the same time, these very Republican senators are holding up a relief package for the American people. It also doesn't help Republicans that the president has switched positions on the relief package three times this week.

Speaking of the court, it's Constitutional for the Republican Senate to confirm Judge Barrett, and they will do it, as we've previous said. Given that 7 in 10 Americans want the Senate to wait until after the election, it seems wrong to push this nomination through. The controversy surrounding this nomination process stems from the hypocritical position the Republicans have put themselves in because of what they said 4 years ago, that a justice should not be confirmed in an election year. Despite this, Republicans are pushing ahead because they see their electoral prospects becoming dimmer by the day. All this has prompted the media to press the Biden campaign on whether or not Democrats would "pack" the court if they were to take control of the White House and Senate. Former VP Biden has refused to answer this question. There's that saying, "Give the people what they want," but it by no means applies to your political opponent. In other words, Mr. Biden should not answer this question because it only creates political fodder - don't lend out ammunition against yourself, politics 101.

Mr. Biden, smartly, is keeping the attention on the Trump Administration's handling, or lack thereof, of the coronavirus pandemic. In this week's vice-presidential debate, where a fly on VP Pence's head took center stage,  Ms. Harris pointed out that Mr. Pence is the head of the Covid-19 task force and over 210,000 Americans have died on his watch. And of course, it begs the question that if the Administration can't keep the staff of the White House safe, how are we to expect they can provide the populace writ large? 

Twenty-five percent of Americans feel the president is doing a good job on battling the pandemic and a majority thinks the country is on the wrong track. Yet, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who is in self-quarantine, believes that this election will turn on optimism and turn out. First, that's a lot of optimism for 25 percent to shoulder and it's fear that driving turnout - fear that is coming from both sides. Democrats have the existential fear of another Trump term and the president has been stoking fear in his base for the past 4 years. Optimism was a nice thought put forth by Mr. Cruz, but all evidence indicates that the American people are hardly feeling that way.

And if you want confirmation on how well the Administration is doing, look no further than Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) who hasn't been to the White House in months, saying that the White House hasn't taken precautions that he has feels necessary to take in the Senate [read: The White House is not safe.] On top of this, we still don't know if the super spreader in chief hasn't tested negative for the virus while he has scheduled three rallies this week. Think about all the personnel involved in moving the president and the danger it creates for potential spread, but as NBC's Hallie Jackson explained, Mr. Trump feels that getting out and doing rallies is the only way to turn things around for his reelection. 

Despite what the president said this week, this is no cure and there is no vaccine for the virus, as Bill Gates confirmed in his interview today. Mr. Gates also explained that a vaccine could be ready for next year but that it would be a second or third generation of a vaccine to get life back to normal. However, unequivocally, Mr. Gates said that the United States has the worst testing system of any country and we will see a significant amount of more deaths if the leadership doesn't get its act together. Only problem, that's not going to happen any time soon.

*****

Lastly, there is grave concern in the FBI that white supremacists are the number one domestic threat in the country, and it was clearly evidenced this week with the arrest of 13 individuals who plotted to kidnap the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, and put her on 'trial' in another state. For the average American, this is WTF?. As the panel agreed, this is a straight up act of terrorism, but Mr. Hewitt pointed out that this should preclude the president criticizing the governor for her handling of the coronavirus in her state. What a dodge and a contribution to the problem. Governor Whitmer had to be living with this threat for months and surely the president knew about it. But in these months, the president has refused to denounce white supremacists [see: Stand Back and Stand By]. When Gov. Whitmer stated in a press conference that leaders who encourage these groups or give them a pass are complicit. Jake Sherman reported that the Republican response on the Hill has been muted, further demonstrating their collective fecklessness. Timothy McVeigh was no rogue actor, he was backed by the Michigan Militia. It's sad to say, but this domestic terror threat will only become more emboldened with a Trump election win. However, the FBI and law enforcement anticipate immediate violence in the wake of a Trump lose. Lose-lose until we formally and legally recognize these group for what they are, terrorists.

 

Panel: Hallie Jackson, NBC News; Jake Sherman, Politico; Hugh Hewitt, Salem Radio Network; Maria Teresa Kumar, Voto Latino

 

10.4.20: Continually Testing But Ultimately Failing

The administration's attitude toward the Covid-19 pandemic, specifically the president's, has been metaphoric of their performance over the last four years. The president keeps being tested and ultimately he's failed the test.

Before going further on this point, it must be said that we hope that the president and the first lady make a healthy and speedy recovery. For all the divisive statements and actions the president has adopted, he is after all the president of the United States and for the sake of the American people you never want to see the president's health in danger.

Yet, with the president now at Walter Reed Hospital whose condition has been made less than clear, we see again that the Trump Administration and its campaign are putting politics over the safety of the nation. By having Vice President Mike Pence go out on the trail, the Trump campaign is putting the continuity of government at risk. That is to say unless the administration wants Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to act as president as she is third in line. As Peggy Noonan explained, the nation is in a state of emergency and that should require leaders to be in Washington, especially the vice president. It's another small test of the Administration that they don't even realize they're failing.

Given the irresponsibility that the campaign has thus far demonstrated in terms of following CDC protocols, Senior Campaign Advisor Jason Miller's are hardly reassuring when he says that he has no concerns at all about the "aggressive" campaign schedule planned this week for the vice president. "Meet The Press" wasn't the only Sunday program that Mr. Miller on and throughout he manages to have the gall keeping a straight face while explaining that the president has always urged the American people to get tested and socially distance with a mask in between tests.

During the debate, the president mocked Mr. Biden for wearing a mask, even when he's '200 feet away from people' but isn't for the president to model behavior recommended by his health experts? For Mr. Trump, his answer during the debate was 'no' as he openly disagreed with administration health officials. 

Throughout this pandemic, the president's failures have been well documented along with all the misinformation he has unceasingly spouted, but while the reasoning that if the president can contract the virus anyone can is sound, the administration DID NOT take all the necessary precautions to protect the president. The truth here is that President Trump is the administration and he acted irresponsibly and now he is among over 7 millions Americans infected with Covid-19.

The debate, if that's what we're calling it, was certainly an embarrassment but it was also instructive in some ways. As the National Review's Rich Lowry pointed out, Mr. Trump's strategy was to steam roll Mr. Biden but the fmr. vice president didn't buckle. The big elephant in the room is to ask why the president took this strategy instead of the consequence of it. Mr. Trump couldn't debate the issues because on the most important to the American people, he has failed the test. Obviously on he's failed on his pandemic response (He's contracted it!) but in the wake of George Floyd's and Breonna Taylor's deaths, he failed to bring heal the country. Going back to what seems like a distant memory, the administration completely botched the response to Hurricane Maria and the relief effort for Puerto Rico. 

In terms of healthcare writ large, the administration is seeking to completely nullify the Affordable Care Act in the midst of a pandemic with no replacement plan. On the economy, pandemic recession aside, the trade deficit with China that Mr. Trump says he's combatting is higher than it's ever been and we're in a manufacturing recession. As Peggy Noonan said, getting 90 minutes undiluted Donald Trump is just too much. The reason is that Mr. Trump's sound bite discourse is catches up with him in a debate setting because he can not speak intelligently and insightfully about any issue important to the American people. The populace, even Republicans deep down, implicitly know that Mr. Trump has failed these tests of leadership. With him contracting Covid-19, these failures all come into crystalizing relief.

Even though Mr. Biden didn't really help himself all that much during a debate where he also made a few regrettable remarks, referring to the president as a clown, but it was clear that Mr. Biden went into the debate hoping to have some semblance of normal discourse where it was clear that that was not Mr. Trump's intention at all. Americans are literally sick and tired, and the realization that after four years, the president still can not demonstrate the capacity for empathy and helpful thought-out solutions to the country's ills is the reason why Mr. Biden has a 14 point lead on Mr. Trump. 

Do we need more debates? Interestingly both Rich Lowry and Peggy Noonan, connected in Republican circles, both feel that we've seen the last one in the 2020 election cycle. Maybe they know more details about the president's health that the rest of us do not. The president's health aside, as Jeh Johnson said, it would be very helpful to have more debates, but not like this last one.

Panel: Jennifer Palmieri, Democratic Strategist; Jeh Johnson, fmr. Security of Homeland Security; Rich Lowry, National Review; Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal

9.27.20: The President's Supreme Court Nominee Isn't There to Save Him

The respective interviews today with Senators Roy Blunt (R-MO) and Corey Booker (D-NJ) are superfluous due to all the answers they gave on Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett make no difference in the what is to come. Judge Barrett will be confirmed by the Republican-lead United States Senate before the election on November 3rd. 

Never mind that Senate Republicans four years ago said that a Supreme Court Justice shouldn't be confirmed in an election year and denied Judge Merrick Garland (President Obama's nominee) hearings. The hypocrisy of Republicans is baked into their political cake and frankly, they don't care about being called out on it. It's an opportunity at a naked power grab and there is no doubt that Republicans will take advantage of it no matter what Democrats in congress say, no matter what the press says and definitely no matter what the will of the American people is. 

Judge Barrett will be confirmed before the November election. Hard Stop. 

However (there's always a however), and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell certainly knows this, the effect of this confirmation is not going to bode well for Republicans in the election. This confirmation is going to motivate Democratic turn-out in a major way and will also sway independents toward Joe Biden and Democrats down ballot. Republican voters still left to vote may not feel as motivated because they got 'their pick.' But none of this matters because Mr. McConnell already sees the writing on the wall. The Republicans in the Senate are headed for the minority and in the lame duck session it will be politically untenable to confirm a justice. Given this, why not get out of the majority what Republicans can while they can? 

Also, much has been made of President Trump's judicial nominee list for the Supreme Court and part of Republicans rhetorical argument is that Joe Biden has presented a list because he's a tool of the left. This column finds this tact typically Republican. We all know that Mr. Trump's list is in actuality not his list, but a list provided to him by the Federalist Society so couldn't the argument be made that the Trump is a tool of the right when it comes to the court?

The president has said that nine justices on the court are a necessity to resolve any election disputes, but if the polls and Mitch McConnell's calculations are correct, the Supreme Court won't be a factor in deciding the election like in 2000. Instead, this shift in the court will address something more important to Republicans, which is getting rid of the Affordable Care Act, that's the real motivation. Even if Joe Biden is elected, the court could strike down the ACA, which would be invalidated around June when the decision comes and then some months after until it's void. There is no way to recover the bill in time so that millions of Americans won't lose their healthcare. Republicans pay lip service to preexisting conditions and keeping young adults on their parents' plan, but without the ACA those two aspects will become unaffordable.

What this nomination does and what the president said this week about not committing to a peaceful transfer of power, something that Senator Booker described as menacing our democracy, all serve to distract from the fact... the fact that Mr. Trump has presided over the fourth largest mass casualty event in American history - his horrendously inexcusable handling of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Over 7.1 million Americans infected and 204,450 (756 yesterday) dead. (source: NY Times)

So the complainer-in-chief who famously doesn't prepare for debates (the one upcoming on Tuesday being no exception) better not be surprised when those numbers and that failure are shoved into his face during the debate.

Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, PBS; Peter Baker, The New York Times; Lanhee Chen, fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford; Claire McCaskill, fmr. Senator from Missouri l Court Press 

9.20.20: Deeper Into Political Warfare

As if we couldn't go any deeper into chaos and civil political warfare, the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg silences an essential voice on the Court and in American life and history writ large. She can never be replaced.

Here's a link to The Washington Post's obituary...

The sad news of her passing and her legacy has been predictably overshadowed by what will be the most ferocious political battle in modern history on top of a presidential election will determine the course of the American democratic experiment. 

Justice Ginsburg’s dying wish was to not have her seat filled until after the election, but Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has no inclination to honor Justice Ginsburg already having stated that the Republican-controlled Senate will have a floor vote on a new nominee. Never mind that NBC's Pete Williams said that the average turnaround time for seating a Supreme Court Justice is seventy days, never mind the damaging of the court's credibility, and never mind the rank hypocrisy of behalf of Republicans who all said four years ago that they wouldn't seat a justice until after the election so that the American people can decide.

Now, to hell with the American people making the decision. 

Senator Tom Barrasso (R-WY) tried to defend why the rules that Republicans made in 2016 only apply to Democrats and not Republicans by citing the fact that the presidency and the senate are both controlled by the same party, to which he said there was historical precedent. Republican senators already have all their talking points down pat, citing the number of times this has happened and each nuance blah blah blah... But there is no precedent and there is no 'Biden rule' as Senator Barrasso tried to through out there. 

This hypocritical power grab is NOT the will of the people either, with President Trump never having won the support of a majority of Americans and there is no 'will of the electoral college.' But Republicans aren't interested in the will of the people if it doesn't serve there interest. This is the latest move that exacerbates those feelings of foreboding as if we're living in an apartheid-type state where the minority rules the majority. 

However, Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) may be correct that Senate Republicans do not have the votes because a few are resisting the majority leader for various reasons, top among them is the vulnerability of their seats, e.g. Susan Collins of Maine, Corey Gardner of Colorado. Then there are senators like Mitt Romney (R-UT) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) who recognize the hypocrisy but want to either stick it to the president or don't trust the president's pick will protect women's issues.

Secretary Hillary Clinton, the person who recommended Justice Ginsburg for the court, said that the nominating and confirmation process is broken and that this was another blow to our institutions. But maintaining institutions was never of interest to Mitch McConnell, unless the institution is a Republican-controlled Senate. When in the minority, Mr. McConnell would obstruct and when in the majority, as we see now, he makes up rules for Democrats that don't apply to Republicans. But Mitch McConnell has always been like this; he hasn't co-authored a bill since the last century. Now, with a president intent on taking down American institutions and politicizing everything, Mr. McConnell's destructive actions only get magnified.

And speaking of destructive, or non-constructive as it were, Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar is firmly in denial mode. Like other administration officials he refuses to acknowledge the numbers never verbally uttering that there are 200,000 Americans dead... in six months. Mr. Azar must have won a big game recently because they've poured Kool-Aid all over this guy (We know, it's Gatorade, but for the purposes of this analogy...) with his sunny statements of things to come. He also disagreed with CDC Director Robert Redfield who testified to Congress this week saying the mask is the most effective tool in fighting the virus, more so than a vaccine because it's determined that 'successful' means 50 percent effectiveness. This column's earlier determination that Mr. Azar was for the most part a straight shooter was misplaced. He's just another nail for Trump's hammer.

 

Panel: No panel

Latest Coronavirus Numbers:
    6.8 million+ infected
    199,308 deaths
    (source: NY Times)

9.13.20: A New Presidential Norm - Lying about Lies

"I didn't lie."

President Trump responding to Jonathan Karl's question about lying to Americans by downplaying the severity of the coronavirus.

Trump on the defensive.

"Downplaying something is really a threat."

Dr. Anthony Fauci responding to Andrea Mitchell about downplaying the virus.

Thank goodness, we had Republican National Committee Chair, Ronna McDaniel, to clear up the confusion and put our minds at ease. Ms. McDaniel explained that the president has taken all the right actions to protect the American people and that "history will look on him well" with regard to his leadership.  She also condemned the Democrats for politicizing the pandemic because Speaker Pelosi called it the "Trump virus." That is disgusting, indeed. And the president doesn't lie about lying.

Now that the record is straight, don't you feel much better? 

There's one question, however, that keeps putting a monkey wrench in all that logic. Why does the United States have 4 percent of the world's population but 25 percent of the total deaths?

The latest CDC Numbers:

6,427,058 total cases (46,045 cases in the last 24 hrs.)

192,388 total deaths (1,035 dead in the last 24 hrs.)

Basically, in the span of 6 months, over 190,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the United States. Unless history loses its pencil, the record is going remember this most of all. Ms. McDaniel said in response of this '25 percent' that we have increased testing, which translates into more positive cases, hence deaths; so essentially we have more deaths because we have more testing. We'll call this 'head in the sand' logic - if we don't know, there's no problem. By contrast, Dr. Michael Osterholm, Dir. of the Center of Disease Control at the University of Minnesota, said today that he is on the same page as Dr. Fauci assessing that we've plateaued at 40,000 confirmed cases and 1,000 deaths per day. 

How in the real world is 1,000 dying everyday, the equivalent to a 9/11 death toll every 4 days, remotely acceptable? Of course, the president downplayed and politicized the danger and he's lying about it as of this very writing, saying that we've 'rounded the corner' on the virus. The president explained that he wanted people to remain calm, not creating a panic, but as Chuck Todd explained the last thing the president exerts is calm, indeed with a wantonness to incite panic - they're coming to get you in the suburbs...

Long time Republican strategist Al Cardenas explained that people are accepting it as a norm that this president lies, which is an incredible statement unto itself, but factor in that 38 to 45 percent of Americans still support the president despite this, and it becomes... well, sad.

The answer to this pandemic crisis is not to downplay it and draw our attention to another crisis, like the continuing social unrest in the country and demonizing protesters. But as the crises mount, the economy in shambles with millions still out of work and devastating fires overwhelming the west coast, smoke from which has been detected in Europe by the way, blame and deflection and telling us to put our heads in the sand is only going to bring more catastrophe on the heads of Americans.

 

Panel: Kasie Hunt, NBC News; Jeffrey Goldberg, Editor in Chief of The Atlantic; Al Cardenas, Republican Strategist

A couple more things...

Even if you believe that fmr. FBI Director of Counter-Intelligence Peter Strzok is a partisan, there is no denying what he said as fact, as it's in the public record - no Presidential Administration in modern history has had this many broad and deep contacts with Russian Intelligence officers. Coincidence, this definitely is not. Does Putin have something on Trump? Yes. Financial. For sure.

Jeffrey Goldberg mentioned that the president keeps 'shadow boxing' by fighting old battles, citing that last night at a campaign rally, Mr. Trump was arguing with Hillary Clinton. He also said that Bob Woodward, the legendary most-trusted reporter in Washington D.C., a whack job. Really? Smell that? Smells like desperation in the morning. 

It begs the question that Mr. Trump has yet to answer, what's your vision for a second term? And political survival isn't a vision.