12.11.16: The Alternate Reality of The Most Self-Interested Administration in U.S. History

Chuck Todd and Reince Priebus got 'into it' on today's "Meet The Press," a contentious back and forth about whether he and the Trump transition team believe that Russian agents were responsible for the hacking of the DNC and John Podesta. The incoming White House chief of staff said that there isn't any 'sourced' evidence that indicates that Russians were involved concluding with "I don't know." However, in a shrill defensive tonality Mr. Priebus disputed the CIA-sourced report that the RNC was hacked as well, but the information wasn't released, flatly saying that wasn't true according to the FBI. He went on to explain that given this part of the story isn't true the entire premise of the story and its contents are false as well.

The Washington Post article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-during-presidential-campaign/2016/12/09/31d6b300-be2a-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.d4ddc9257ac5

Yet, seventeen U.S. intelligence agencies agree that Russian agents did indeed hack email systems with the intent of damaging the Clinton campaign. Furthermore, the CIA report was presented to the Congressional Intelligence Committee members of the House and Senate, and Senate Majority Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was not convinced of the evidence and blocked the release of the CIA report this past September.

There isn't any surprise that Mitch McConnell would block the release of such a report given the possibility of increasing his own power, putting self-interest over party, and party over country. Senator McConnell got a two-for in Trump's election win. He's the Senate Majority leader and his wife is a member of the cabinet. This is obviously a man who will do only what is politically advantageous for himself. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and John McCain (R-AZ) are getting ready an investigation of the Russian hacking while McConnell will sit on the sideline until he has to move. Mitch McConnell is no leader, just a Machiavellian politician in the classic sense.

[An aside: This may be Senator John McCain's last term in the Senate (speculation on my part), but combating this Russian cyber-meddling (some would say 'warfare') in our system and the Trump Administration's denying/enabling of it will be his swan song. Ultimately, as Senator McCain is wont to do throughout his career is put country over party. If this is his last political battle, he's going to go out with a win.]

The Wall Street Journal's Kimberly Strassel, who said "everyone agrees" that the Russians were responsible for hacking, to which Mr. Todd corrected her because it's everyone except the incoming administration. However, she explained that the problem with the report is that concludes that the Russians were specifically helping Mr. Trump win, which gives the air of political bias on the part of the CIA and The Washington Post.  She said that doesn't seem to be the case, but then her argument gets a little twisted. She explained that the Russians hacking was designed to damage what they thought would be a Clinton Administration, to delegitimize her presidency before taking office. But to say that and then say it wasn't at the same time designed to help Mr. Trump makes no sense. The degree to which it worked was underestimated by the Russians so they got an even better result.

The Trump Administration hasn't even taken office yet and they've already caused a rift between them and the CIA, and between the CIA and the FBI.Also, their denying of Russian hacking is siding with a foreign government over the U.S. intelligence community, according to Chuck Todd, and how can you not agree with him?

And Mr. Trump continually reinforces his bromance with Vladimir Putin, at every turn. Now, he's set to nominate CEO of Exxon-Mobil Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. Mr. Tillerson is a personal friend of Vladimir Putin and received the Order of Friendship from Mr. Putin and the Russian government. All this on top of the fact that Mr. Trump wants another billionaire in his cabinet. Lacky Priebus, of course, defended Mr. Tillerson as "one of the preeminent people in the world," after self-correcting that he was only one of the most preeminent business people in the world.

Because of all this, fmr. U.S. Russian Ambassador Michael McFaul called it 'initially disturbing' of the nomination. The program also quoted Senator Graham with "unnerving." Most Republicans, still giddy with unfettered power, are in the wait and see mode because no one's even been sworn in yet so legally no damage has been done. Little consolation.

Right now we're trending generals and billionaires and friends with Putin so welcome to the alternate reality of the most self-interested administration in U.S. History.


Panel: Kimberly Strassel, The Wall Street Journal; Doris Kearns Goodwin, presidential historian; Rick Stengel, fmr. Time magazine; Michael Steele, fmr. RNC Chair

One more thing...

John Glenn, pilot, astronaut, senator, American hero (not close to summing it up).
I'll just say that when I think of John Glenn, remembered of course for being the first human to orbit the earth, 3 times, I think how important the exploration of space is because of all the science and imagination that goes into it. That's amazing... and hopeful.

click NY Times for obituary

12.4.16: The Trump Transition Team's Amateur Matinee

Instead of starting with the "Post-Truth Trump Presidency," we'll first tackle how we got here, hence the back and forth with the rival campaign managers. You can look at the myriad of reasons, factors and influences as to why Hillary Clinton lost and Donald Trump won, but what it came down to was that Donald Trump was a better campaigner than Hillary Clinton, deeply flawed as they both were.  Joel Beneson, for the Clinton side, couldn't admit that the candidate herself bears a lot of the responsibility for the loss. On the other hand, despite what KellyAnne Conway actually said, she and the Trump team have not been gracious in the win at all, but their prerogative. President-elect Trump's "Thank You" tour is, let's face it, a victory lap.

Is the press to blame? No, but it bears responsibility for not pressing the candidates on policy specifics more, as Andrea Mitchell mentioned. Unlike any election in all of our lifetimes, the shear chaos of things overwhelmed the press but of its inability to focus on anything with detail. There were a few excepts like David Fahrenthold's reporting in The Washington Post. Between offensive videos and countless, tasteless, bigoted, subtly racist, ignorant, non-factual statements from Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton's 'deplorable' comment, stupid email practice, email leaks and FBI intervention all with Benghazi echoing in the background and no one knows which way to go.

[Side Note: Democrats telegraphed their candidate so blatantly and pushed every other contender out the day after President Obama was reelected, and from that moment Republicans were pushing hard on Benghazi and spent a lot of our money to smear Hillary Clinton through the next four years. They didn't know that their investment would ultimately pay out so 'bigly' but that's what it was - one big continually negative campaign against Hillary Clinton who would inevitably get the nomination despite this, and Republicans could it do because they controlled the House.]

After all that bitterness and rancor, it seems like were into the amateur hour matinee of the country's presidential programming because right at this moment that's what the Trump team is giving us. And it's an embarrassment. And Vice President-elect Mike Pence didn't make it any better in his interview.
Donald Trump hasn't even taken office yet and he's already endangering the most complicated but indispensable relationship with China by committing a mistake that clearly shows that the Trump team doesn't do its homework. Donald Trump tweeted that the Taiwanese leader called him, essentially saying that it wasn't his 'fault.' And then when Mike Pence dismisses it as just a courtesy call from the "President of Taiwan," as Andrea Mitchell explained is a serious diplomatic mistake in terms of the China, do you think the Chinese will wonder where's the courtesy to them? The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter explained that at this point there should already be a China policy in place which has considered a position in Taiwanese relations to avoid missteps, in light of these statements. However, during this transition such positions are still foggy at best.

It was refreshing to see Chuck Todd stick up for the press and say that the Trump team uses 'blaming the media' as a crutch because it does. And words do matter. This 'making excuses' tactic on the part of the Trump team is going to get very old very quickly if it continues into the Trump Administration.

In the call with the president of Pakistan, Mr. Trump called him a terrific guy and looked forward to visiting his country, also saying that he'd help end Pakistan's problems [reading: border disputes with India over Kashmir]. You can imagine that the Indian parliament loved hearing that.

President-elect Trump, post-call, disputes what the Pakistani's say what was said - a he-said, he-said thing. After a while, our countries will cut back relations with the U.S. because they'll never know where they stand with the Trump Administration. That's not how it is or necessarily will be, but this is what's trending now.

Rich Lowry described a rude awakening that Congressional Republicans are going to get when they realize that Trump isn't just going to go along with their agenda and sign bills. Republicans and Mr. Trump seem to be on the same page in terms of tax cuts, which will be a massive windfall for the wealthy, needless to understate that it will much less positive for the middle class, but many conservatives, including Rich Lowry didn't love this Carrier deal that saved 1,000+ jobs, but still over half of all of the jobs will in fact move to Mexico. Conservatives didn't like it because it was government intervening in the free market and given that it was in Gov. Mike Pence's Indiana, it reeked of crony-capitalism, that according to Sarah Palin. But dare I say that she has a point. The other sent message is that a company can threaten to move to another country in an attempt to exhort the state and/or federal government for tax concessions. Sure, be glad for the people who kept their jobs, but it's clearly how the business of creating American jobs should be done.

Lastly, there's one more job to comment on, and it's that of House Minority Leader. Nancy Pelosi was reelected to lead the Democratic caucus in the House, but the party should have gone in a different direction. The party needs a different type of leadership energy and for those paying attention who had that feeling of - OK, we got beat but I'm invigorated and motivated by the anger of the loss - just had their motivational bubble popped. Because with Nancy Pelosi back in the leadership position after so many Congressional losses (she's the House messenger of the Democratic platform), there's no avoiding the same stall energy, and hence disappointment.


Panel: Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report; Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Heather McGhee, President Demos Action; Rich Lowry, National Review

11.27.16: Day Two And Fidel Castro Is Still Dead; and The Defensive Transition

KellyAnne Conway should stop saying that Donald Trump didn't have to run for president, as she did today on the program. Because before you know it even more people (his supporters) are going to be asking, "Then why did you?"

More on that in a minute, but first Fidel Castro (1916-2016).
Time is the vanquisher of history and it will do its work on Fidel Castro, and with his death the end of the Castro regime, and hopefully system of government as the panel discussed, in Cuba is seeing its final days. Make no mistake, Castro was an A-List dictator, meaning he was unmercifully brutal to his people and a murderer of his political enemies. He was only, distinctly outdone by Che Guevara who laid the foundation for that brutality. (If you read Jon Lee Anderson's definitive biography you would come to agree.) The mistake that Che made was that he left the country in pursuit of leftist military revolution and got caught in Bolivia by the CIA.

Chuck Todd was talking about 'feel' and kept posing the past hypothetical that if this were ten years ago. In other words, he doesn't feel as significant as it should be because he's been out of the picture since 2008. Understandable, but it seemed a bit dismissive, and if you believe that the United States is on the right side of history then Castro's death no matter when it came was history's justice.

My opinion, as The New York Times Helene Cooper would point out, is from an Americo-centric perspective and I can live with that. But this is exactly why Ms. Cooper is an important voice in our media because without acknowledging and seriously considering that broader perspective, your argument demands less respect. At least that's my take.

Finally, it's a good day because Fidel Castro is responsible for some of the worst U.S. policy over the last 50 years, as Mr. Todd outlined. Black eye after black eye, and let's not forget Castro as parcel for near nuclear annihilation.

So...
As Ms. Conway was saying about Mr. Trump that this is an unprecedented time with a business man becoming President of the United States, but as we all know that's not all it is. Staying on topic with the conflicts of interest that this particular presidency poses are endless. Chuck Todd, thankfully, called out Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) on that fact that we don't know about all his business dealings.

Sure, it's easy to agree with The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan in her call to put patriotism of country over his business interests and liquidate the company. But here's the rub: NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. Donald Trump will never liquidate his assets, no matter how hard or easy it is. Never. Not to mention that it would probably involve a measure of disclosure, to which the president-elect has a famous aversion. Ms. Conway said that the kids would have 'very senior positions' in the company but that doesn't constitute President-elect Trump giving up control. The children shouldn't even be running his business of course, but we Americans fell for it.

Also, I have to mention that when Ms. Conway says that she's 'astonished' by the media reporting on the rumored in-fighting about making Mitt Romney Secretary of State, it's laughable. Frankly, I could care less if she thinks it's astonishing or not. I would say the same of John Podesta admonishing people about his email leaks.  Ms. Conway's whining defensiveness is tiresome. Her candidate is going into the White House and you want sympathy? Equally laughable. She was so reflexively defensive that she mentioned the pointless recount in WI, PA, and MI without even being asked about it.

And speaking of falling for things, the 'backing away' on positions such as waterboarding and climate change, the Affordable Care Act, Hillary Clinton's prosecution, whatever... it's simply confirms what both Democrats and Republicans already knew which is that President-elect Trump's political principles and convictions are all negotiable. And contrary to what Ms. Conway would say, it's near impossible to imagine that Donald Trump's businesses aren't still most important to him, easily over the presidency. 


Panel: Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Matt Bai, Yahoo News; Mark Murray, NBC News; Danielle Pletka, ,

A couple more things...
Senator Rubio said that he wouldn't retroactively revoke any of the 'Dreamers' permits, but he also said that he wouldn't support renewing any of them when they expire. I suspect, hope, that he'll refine or revise that statement that he wouldn't support issuing more, at the very least. But really, we're going to tell these kids that after your permit expires that we don't want you here. These kids weren't the ones who broke the rules, but they've had to follow the rules ever since. And then they'll have to get out? Some would argue that they've earned it. And if you consider that then it goes against what we represent as a country. I would contend that Dreamers understand that it's a privilege to live in the U.S., more so than thinking its a right to be taken for granted.

Tim Ryan (D-OH), represents Youngstown, OH - conservative Democrat
Why couldn't he be the guy? He made a very frank, critical, and encouraging point, which was that Democratic policy positions are the way to go, but the messaging was bad. Accurate. Is he too inexperienced for such a high-profile gig, most probably but Nancy Pelosi has to go. The Democrats need a new energy, a vocal energy, for their leadership. Congressman Ryan's been in since 2003, he's vocal and he wants to win all over the map instead of Dems. simply being a coastal party. So again, why couldn't he be the guy?

11.20.16: Trump and the Conflict Presidency

A fairly dramatic title to this post, I will admit, but I'll give it some forceful, but not hysterical perspective.

There is no doubt that conflicts already abound in the infancy of the era of Trump, and there will continue to the appearance of many for the next month and a half. However, as Robert Costa pointed out, President-elect Trump will first work to disentangle himself from any standing legal conflicts like Trump University settlement. Taking the new White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus at his word, he said that there will be no violation of these [conflict of interest] rules, "I can assure you of that." This column will most certainly hold him to those words but I'm also willing to wait and see, actions matter.  And President-elect Trump actions have so far been inadequate - meeting with his Indian business partners at this time is a complete conflict. Those meetings, according to the president-elect himself should be now conducted by his children who are supposed to be running his businesses. Divestment and blind trusts are a fantasy that Donald Trump will never fulfill, let's face it.

As Kathleen Parker explained, Donald Trump needs to give a speech about how he sees his presidency, addressing the concerns of many Americans, especially given the appalling poltical identity attacks he used during his campaign. He's already sewn cultural conflicts and is now not stemming the rapid growth of his business conflicts. If all of this isn't corrected by January 20, 2017, which I doubt will happen, a cloud will be cast over practically every decision the president makes, domestic or international one could ask how it could affect President Trump's business.

The reality of how this is going to play out is that there will so many of these little 'skirmishes' that the press will not know what to focus, on creating an overall cloud of conflict, but nothing that tips the balance. With Steve Bannon as chief strategist, one can presume that certain media outlets will comes to President Trump's defense. And columns such as this one will get bogged down in the minutia of every instance instead of bigger policy decisions.

On that note, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who knows Donald Trump better than any other U.S. senator, said that he would be willing to work with President Trump on trade and infrastructure but oppose him on policies like repealing the Affordable Care Act or civil liberties or Supreme Court picks, most importantly. This kind of balance will be criticized by the base of the Democratic party but from a pragmatic point of view, you have to do the best with the reality you're confronted with and so I can understand such a stance from someone in Senator Schumer's position, without diminishing the importance and necessity of the Democratic base to shout in the face of it as the cast of Hamilton has now famously done to Vice-President-elect Mike Pence. The comments of the cast were in bounds, as it were, but the timing was off the mark and shouldn't have been at the end of the show. But one has to keep in mind what the motivation was to do it, and that is to stand up to the bigotry that has been propagated during the Trump campaign.

But say that President Trump 'partners' with Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats on an infrastructure bill, but on the opposite side doesn't pay for it adequately to Tea Party Republicans' satisfaction. What happens then? Donald Trump already has a lot of Republican opposition in the Congress and this kind of example will only build on that.

This brings the question of whether the Democrats should work with the administration or oppose everything in every circumstance the way the Republicans did with President Obama? My initial thought is if you're the Democrats you need to take it on a policy by policy basis because if Democrats think they represent America better than Republicans they need to show people that they're not childish. Many times... countless, in fact, Republicans during President Obama's two terms showed themselves to be just that. We have to move away from that, but frankly, it's shitty (only way to capture it) that the Republicans in Congress can never come around on that idea.

Even Bernie Sanders seemed open to working with President Trump in areas where they shared common ground like instituting the Glass-Steagall Act once again, which would prohibit commercial banks from engaging in the investment business, and there's no doubt that would limit the consolidation of the big banks among other things.

But Robert Costa of The Washington Post said something that's sticking with me today - he said that if Democrats going along with Trump on policy items, he could destroy them as well. This is to say that if they compromise with Trump on anything then they've compromised their principles on everything and the party could break a part. It seems like an extreme conclusion, but let me remind you that Donald Trump is going to be the President of the United States (as difficult as that is to write).

Infrastructure, which no matter how you look it it would be a good compromise, will end up being the only area of agreement. Things like Glass-Steagall will never get to the floor of a Republican House. The one issue that is most troublesome is on climate change, as Bernie Sanders mentioned. Denial of it is completely idiotic at this point, and if appointments to the Dept. of Energy and Interior are anything like President-elect Trump's choices so far, we'll setting our country back in so many ways. Instead of denying climate change, use the Paris Agreement as a clarion call to America to lead the way, creating the technologies to combat the effects that the rest of the world will have to rely on. That's how America has always lead, and in this area it's how we should do it again.


Panel: Neera Tandem, Democratic Strategist; Kathleen Parker, The Washington Post; Thomas Friedman, The New York Times, Robert Costa, The Washington Post

A couple more things...
I can't believe I'm even saying this but I hope that Mitt Romney is offered the position of Secretary of State. John Bolton and especially Rudy Giuliani (in the top two for consideration) would each be a disaster. I rather see a sane person with a sense of responsibility than either one of those two, and then take bets on the over/under on whether Gov. Romney lasts the entire term.
If President-elect Trump were to calm my political nerves only slightly, it would be to dump Rudy Giuliani like he dumped Chris Christie. (How toxic is he now - soon to be impeached.)

Also, any tempered or pragmatic commentary I offer that may infuriate you either way, I will make clear, if I haven't already in this column, that it can not be overstated what Bernie Sanders said with regard to President-elect Trump and the birther issue. In fact, I would say that it's not an issue but a smear and a completely racist one at that. There's not a word that I write about Donald Trump where the depth of how despicable that he would use a racist conspiracy as the impetus to run for president. There's no giving him a pass on this. I could make it an editor's note at the bottom of every column, but saying it here once, clearly, is enough.

11.13.16: Republicans Riding High On The Trump Tiger

Writer's Note: For the lifetime of this blog, with the exception of my last post, I've always tried to maintain of level of objectivity and hence used words like "we" or "this column" in the hope that people who read these columns and would consider a broader perspective on the issues discussed. At the end of this election, I had made the decision that I would discontinue this column to focus on other writing, but how can I now? We've entered into uncharted waters so how could I stop? I will continue to write and comment more critically than ever, with more focus on calling out any softness that we witness from the media people (in addition to the politicians) that appear on "Meet The Press." The one major change, I'm going to give myself a voice and write this column from the first person, yes a major change. (I may lapse back to the collective 'we' once in a while - old habits...) Thank you as always for reading.

And this is what I'm talking about with regard to the show and by extension the press - the manner in which it pigeon holes people into every imaginable category. Chuck Todd said that his late father would have kicked him in the pants for framing people, in shorthand, as college equaling educated and non-college as uneducated and by extension city vs. rural. If a lawyer who fights for farmers lives in a city, he or she is educated, but  bring that person to the farm and ask im or her to plow a field, now uneducated. Really, do I have to explain this?

What this country needs to do is that educated is a matter of perspective and instead of being condescending or resentful of the other, understand the specialty of each and that it should compliment one another - connect the diversity of the talent. The press needs to correct this and since I comment of "Meet The Press" specifically, we'll have to use Chuck Todd as the barometer.

Another course correction for the program has to be more in-studio guests that puts individuals on the spot. The interview with KellyAnne Conway was taped with questions edited out. Maybe in some instances I'll be able to go to the web site for the full interview, but that's not entirely the point. In a live studio atmosphere you get less inflammatory and more substance. We've always said that in this respect, "Meet The Press" would do well to go back to its original format. In fact, now more than ever, NBC should create an entire separate half hour program in which a press panel of four, with a moderator, interviews two politicians - one from each side - to discuss a few key issues. This way people can hear both perspectives side by side. We're certainly not getting that now.

And to be sure, Ms. Conway was smug during today's interview, but would you expect anything different considering the big win she was instrumental in orchestrating? No doubt she would give a couple of kicks to the Clinton campaign saying that it misread America and calling them "pretenders" that red states would go blue. The first part of that is false while the second part is true. Red states weren't going to go blue, for which ever reason you want to give it wasn't going to happen. Did Democrats misread America - maybe but how do you win the popular vote and say you misread America?

Did the Comey FBI letters play a part in effecting turn-out for Clinton, most certainly, but as it turns out Sec. Clinton did go to enough places where it would have mattered. Hindsight being what it is, you would though that the Clinton campaign would have looked at every stop President Obama made in 2012 and went to everyone of them (or the next town over) and packed in more stops on top of that. That's what it took this time around and the Clinton campaign didn't accomplish that. Chuck Todd analyzed states in which Trump had won as opposed to states Clinton lost. Well, there's no doubt that if next to your name you don't have the most votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, KellyAnne Conway is going to stick it in your face.

Going back a step, one of my reservations about Sec. Clinton as president was not the Secretary herself. It was always the sword of Damocles that is Bill Clinton saying or doing something stupid while his wife served as president. Now, we'll never have to find out what would have happened there. Yet, what we have now is no better, worse as a matter of fact. Ethically, you have to remember we have no idea what Trump has going on in his businesses (no release of the tax returns) and there has been little talk about the separation of his businesses and his presidency. Something that was grievously overlooked in today's conversation.

But Republicans aren't worried about it as winning changes everything and they're giddy about their unexpected opportunity to govern with complete control. With that in mind, right now they're riding high on the tiger and putting the wish list together.

Senator Corey Booker (D-NJ) said that neither party should be standing with pride right now and should be humble, but we know that simply not going to happen. Republicans in control of the Senate will use reconciliation to pass legislation and to confirm Supreme Court recommendations, of which I'm going on record to say that Ted Cruz is completely unacceptable for the Supreme Court (ask me for a reason).

Getting back to Ms. Conway for a moment, in the interview she also said that the cultural zeitgeist of the country has also changed, which honestly is a shallow euphemism for an openly white dominated culture, which has come to the fore since the election result. As Senator Booker said, people are fearful of how they'll be treated in this xenophobic context. Ms. Conway said President-elect Trump has already addressed it (with a tweet) and that President Obama and Sec. Clinton should really be the ones to step up and talk about the protests. Bullshit. With winning comes responsibility and the fledgling Trump administration personnel better get a handle on that concept. He needs to speak out on this divisive forces (both sides) in a more clarifying presidential tone to reassure people. The longer he waits to say something the deeper the resentment will become and coupled with the Republicans' slash and burn politics, it will come to an ugly head sooner or later. And it will cut this nation deeply.

In this first post-election post, I can't leave on a completely down note but I can neither be optimistic for any reason. Moment to moment, I'm in a wait and see mode.


Panel: Nina Turner, fmr. State Senator (D-OH); Katty Kay, BBC News; David Brooks, The New York Times; Hugh Hewlitt, Salem Radio Network


A few more things...

I think Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) would be a great choice for the DNC chairmanship, but I agree with David Axelrod's call to have a full-time chair. You need someone who is always listening to the constitutes throughout the country and building on a local level - something that Rep. Ellison can not possibly accomplish given his responsibilities in Congress where he should be projecting his voice the loudest.  I never liked Debbie Wasserman-Schultz as the DNC chair and you see where that lead the party.

And the Trump administration would be best served not going after Sec. Clinton legally for the email server once in power and just have the Clinton era quietly fade. Democrats, for their part, have to just say goodbye and move on.

11.9.16: The Election Hangover

Honestly, I don't really have a hangover from last night because I went to bed relatively early (around half past midnight) because as soon as it was confirmed that Ron Johnson (R-WI) would win reelection in his senate race I knew Donald Trump would win Wisconsin and the presidency. There's no way that Ron Johnson would have won on a split ticket. He needed a down ballot push from the top, no question. He was the canary.

But here are a few thoughts about last night's historic election...

1. Now we'll really see how a completely Republican-controlled country will look and how it will function. This is to also ask if President-elect Trump will just fall in line with Republican orthodoxy or will he buck the party that propelled him into office? I suspect a lot of hardship coming due to fiscal austerity.

2. Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act, if you like, is done.
It's a shame really because I have personal experience with using the Affordable Care Act and it worked for me. The premium was high because of a preexisting condition, but it would have been triple the cost with the ACA, if I could have gotten insurance at all. Granted I live in a state that set up an exchange, but I believe that if opened up interstate competition and mandated a price structure, the problem with the rates could have been fixed. Unfortunately, Democrats couldn't fix it because they didn't have the numbers and Republicans hated it because it wasn't their legislation.
We'll go back to the way it was and healthcare costs will against start to explode.
It's difficult for me to imagine how taking away health insurance from 20 million people is going to be good politically but we'll find out.

3. What's always worried me is that Donald Trump never released his tax returns and now there's no cause for him to do so ever. I'm not comfortable with just 'hoping' that he is not personally beholden financially to some government or more accurately Russian oligarch. Conflict of interest needs to be extremely scrutinized by the press at all times. Because he didn't release his tax returns, it's required.

4. I think our interaction and leadership in the world is a necessity for this country, and I do believe that leadership position for the United States will end during Trump's time in office. Our standing in the world will be greatly diminish. For example, going against trade simply on principle is a mistake. Technology eliminates a lot more jobs than trade. We are no longer that shining city on a hill as Ronald Reagan had described.

5. Foreign Policy and Military Action are now a complete wildcard. I have no idea what's going to transpire. We'll just have to hold our breath on this one.

6. Regardless of what you think of Hillary Clinton, she's not a bigot. And maybe Donald Trump isn't one either, but he embraced bigotry in a big way and this country voted him into the presidency. We now live in a country that accepts bigotry - it comes from the top. That's putting it mildly even. Hard truth, but it's the truth.

7. Democrats are screwed.
Hillary Clinton wasn't the answer, and no Bernie Sanders wasn't either. But who steps up now? I just don't see who it's going to be. The OK news here is that individuals in this day and age can rise very quickly, e.g. Barack Obama, Donald Trump.

8. The culture wars that we all thought were over are going to all come back hard and I think we're going to headed toward the extreme right. Republicans have been given full license to fulfill the entire wish list. Roe v. Wade is now on the table. This will be bitter in the worst way.

9. For all those who didn't want Donald Trump as president, and I was one of those people, I'll say this: It's going to be OK... We'll be OK. At least for now.

10. We're "The States of Trump." United only by paper. And we've embraced Trumpism, which isn't Americanism. America, as a concept (see the last sentence of point 4), is on hold.

Good Night and Good Luck.

11.6.16: Has Donald Trump Just Offended Too Many People? The End Of A Long, Twisted Election Road

In this exceptionally well-paced and informative final election analysis episode of "Meet The Press," the most significant take away in our estimation is that the spike in the Hispanic vote is what could put Hillary Clinton over the top to win the presidency. The operative word there is 'could.'

And for Hillary Clinton supporters it would be poetic that it would turn out that Mr. Trump actually lost this election on the very day that he declared himself a candidate. The introductory speech on that first day when he called Mexicans rapists and murderers may in fact really been the beginning of the end. As Telemundo's Jose Diaz-Balart pointed out, Latinos are standing up against something, the something being Trump. But good for them - Mr. Trump's description was despicable to say the least and the tribalism ripping through the country that Tom Brokaw referred to during the panel discussion has been initiated, perpetuated and exacerbated disproportionately by a wide margin by the Trump campaign, and even that phrasing is being extremely generous.

To us, it's ridiculous that baked into the common lexicon of American thinking at the point is the notion that Donald Trump has openly offended so many different groups of people and yet people still find him acceptable to represent the United States.

Throughout the first half, the program featured different NBC analysts and what they were watching for in the race, state to state - mentions of what to look for in FL, NC, AZ, etc. Of all the states mentioned, due to the spike in Hispanic turnout, we would not be surprised if Democrats built a solid block of states by winning Nevada and Arizona, establishing a southwest block.

The professional pollsters Chuck Todd interviewed both seemed to agree that Sec. Clinton's four-point national lead is 'durable.'  However, Mr. Todd and the panel members keep focusing their attention on why the Clinton campaign was still putting so many resources into winning Michigan. It must be in play, right? If you're the Clinton campaign, you're thinking that until the polls close on Tuesday night, don't take anything for granted, playing it cautious as is Sec. Clinton's wont, but in this ultra-harsh, unpredictable election you can leave nothing to chance. Or think of it this way, Georgia isn't going to go Democratic, but it's close enough that it is making Republicans uncomfortable - vice versa on Michigan and the Dems.

In other areas, like in Philadelphia as Chris Matthews described, Republicans are kidding themselves if they think that they're going to win Pennsylvania. Not going to happen. As we've said numerous times in past columns, if you cannot win in the suburbs of Philadelphia, you will never win the state.

Lastly, on the blocking and tackling of all this, is the African-American vote which Mr. Todd questioned John Podesta, Chairman of the Clinton Campaign, about, and the concern that turnout is down in early voting. When Mr. Podesta outlined that it was down 6% from when Barack Obama, our first African-American president who was running for reelection, then you would say overall that's not to bad for the Clinton campaign, and we haven't gotten to election day yet.

Ultimately, that's going to be the key - Sec. Clinton and her campaign have coalesced all these different groups whereas the Trump campaign has alienated them inherently narrowing his supporters to predominantly white men. And in that group, he's not going to get enough because many college-educated white males are going Democratic.

Then there's the existential - the God-knows-what-could-still-happen-in-this-election possibility that still dreadfully exists in this anything goes year. Even Tom Brokaw, of all people, was questioning the behavior of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, saying that from the outside looking in the FBI seems to have been politicized on the side of the Trump campaign. Within a week's time, it's been accepted that particular agents at the FBI are intentionally politicizing the agency. Vice-presidential candidate Tim Kaine has put forward the notion that FBI agents are actively working against the Clinton campaign. The responsibility for such behavior falls squarely on Director Comey, without question. In the aftermath, the politicizing of the FBI is one of, if not the worst byproduct of this campaign.

As for the "day after," let's worry about that when we get to it - as the saying goes: one catastrophe at a time.

Without going on too long, we'll say this - if you haven't voted yet, try to cast it with some hope in mind, but if that doesn't work for you, just get out there and do it anyway!

If everything goes smoothly, or even just slightly rocky, the next time we write we'll have a new president-elect. Wow, finally.


Panel: Nicole Wallace, Savannah Guthrie, Chris Matthews, Jose Diaz-Balart, and Tom Brokaw

One more thing...
In the more politics as usual Senate races, Charlie Cook, namesake of the Cook Political Report, didn't call either North Carolina or Missouri, but gave control to the Democrats with his predictions. He didn't think Kelly Ayotte will win, but is a big blow to the Republicans, more so than any other contest because sacrificing a seat held by a conservative northeast woman in great standing with the party for the Trump candidacy will be a price that didn't need to be paid. Mr. Cook also sees Pat Toomey losing his seat in PA to Katie McGinty will be insult to injury in the state.

While the presidential race has filled us with all kinds of existential dread, the Senate races at least have still made it a little fun. Not much of a consolation.

All the best.

10.30.16: FBI Director Putting His Finger On The Scale

What FBI Director James Comey did on Friday in releasing a statement that the agency is reopening the investigation into Sec. Clinton's emails because more have been found that may be pertinent was irresponsible and stupid, given that he doesn't even know what is the emails. To reopen the investigation, you need to have evidence of which he has none.

Mr. Comey, so protective of his own independence and seeming incorruptibility should resign immediately after the election as he has not served the American people in good faith - and let's be clear he has not done a valuable service to Democrats or Republicans. All he's done is set bad precedents and unduly undermined American democracy. He didn't follow proper procedure or precedent and hence put the FBI into the middle of a presidential election.

If not for anything, Mr. Comey gave a rhetorical, know-nothing bomb thrower, which Andrea Mitchell reported, more ammunition in a moment where clarity, and not ambiguity, is at a premium.

Republican vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence from what he said in his interview today thinks that Director Comey was pressured in July to not seek an indictment of Mrs. Clinton, but now is doing the right thing reopening the investigation. Again, our question is how do you reopen an investigation if you're not sure you have evidence to support that action? Dir. Comey doesn't know at this point what is contained in these emails. To opine, there are probably official emails on the laptop associated with Sec. Clinton's aide Huma Abedin that shouldn't be there but at the same time the FBI is already familiar with their contents. If they aren't then they didn't do a good enough job in the first place.

CNBC's Larry Kudlow said that the letter could have been more artfully done, to which Andrea Mitchell answered, "Ya think?" Great insight there Larry - you should just stick with your supply-side economics.

The panel also discussed that at this moment the reputation of the FBI is on the line. Larry Kudlow said that because of Comey's decision in July, the Bureau has been in large revolt, and so if Dir. Comey didn't send the letter to Congress that the information about the existence of new emails would have been leaked. Mr. Comey may have taken this step in an attempt to not appear political given this turmoil brewing internally at the FBI, 'correcting a mistake,' or something. In fact, the reputation of the FBI because of Mr. Comey's misguided statements from July until now has severely damaged its reputation, politicizing the agency.

As NPR's Audie Cornish explained, Mr. Comey created more smoke around Mrs. Clinton once again prompting the question of why there is always smoke around her and her husband, though there is never evidence of fire?

Republican politicians are happy that there is still an angle which they can exploit in the attempt to retake the White House and slay their white whale, Mrs. Clinton. And in the unfortunate event, for them, that she is elected president they'll take consolation in the fact that hearings will start immediately and the American people will go another full presidential term seeing one party completely obstruct the other, hence nothing will get done.

To give you an idea on what the effect a Trump presidency would have on the country, think about the fact that on Friday when Mr. Comey's statement was released the stock market dropped 50 points, because of the chances of Trump winning became better.  For those who would say "good" because they some notion that the whole system should be taken down to better their lot in life are so misinformed that it's simply sad.

The candidates are who they are - good and bad respectively - so you have to judge. However, what Mr. Comey did as outlined at the top of today's program is that he gave Republicans down ballot a lifeline. We would add that the lifeline has also extended to the Trump campaign.  With that, today's panel seemed to all agree that no matter what happens, who wins, gridlock in government will remain and perhaps get worse. Case in point:: Andrea Mitchell outlining how Republicans, hard right and moderate alike, are gunning to get House Speaker Paul Ryan to either bend to their will or get out.

In the presidential race, Americans have pretty much decided which candidate they're going to vote for - pick your poison with each and avoid accordingly - so Mr. Comey's actions won't ultimately have an effect on that contest. At least that's our read on it. Where his actions will truly be felt are down ballot, especially in House races. Basically, in an attempt to save his own reputation, even if inadvertently, he tipped the scale. It's just not the scale everyone thinks it is.

On the other hand, At least if Mrs. Clinton does win the presidency, Mr. Comey will have some friendlies around because you'd have to imagine that that working relationship will be somewhere very distant from one made in heaven.

And speaking of heaven - thank God - hopefully, this is almost over.


Panel: Mike Murphy, Republican Strategist; Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Audie Conrish, NPR; Larry Kudlow, CNBC

10.23.16: Republicans Really Did Trump Themselves

With all due respect to Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway's explanation that when Mr. Trump sticks to the issues, he's a better leader for America. But Mr. Trump can not do that and never once has he given us the inclination that he will. Simply, Mr. Trump does not have the rudimentary knowledge to know what has to be done in order to run The United States of America. Thus, the only issues he can fully address are his own, not those that are of the American people's concern.


To Ms. Conway's credit, she did acknowledge that her candidate is behind but that he is still stating his case to the American people; however, Mr. Trump had three opportunities in front of tens of millions of people and all he did was illustrate how uniquely unfit he is for the office.

Conversely, there are two aspects of Ms. Conway's answers that we take strong exception to, the first of which is her and her campaign's use of the term 'rigged' in any context. Pushing the unjustified, irresponsible notion that the election is rigged in any form goes against the very foundation of American democracy. What good is it that 45 percent of Trump supporters think the election is rigged and therefore will not accept the outcome of the election. That's what the Trump campaign would have you believe, and Trump supporters make up 75 percent of the Republican party.

The New York Times' Thomas Friedman said that the Republican party has to be blown up and rise up from the ashes as something different. Republican strategist Stuart Stevens (who worked on Mitt Romney's campaign) added that if that were to happen it has to be "based in reality," which is in fact an admission that the Republicans' rhetoric to its base has not been based in reality.

That's not what is going to happen. Despite wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats, they are no going to win control of the House of Representatives. (Democrats will, however, gain enough seats to put pressure on the Republican majority to move some legislation.) Given that, Republicans in the House will try to move along as if nothing ultimately happened given the Trump candidacy. They'll ignore questions about the legitimacy of the election and simply say that it is over, a the while limping along crippled by internal bickering and revolt.

It makes us wonder about the future of the Trump supporter if he doesn't win. They can not remain just a movement because Trump himself, unable to stay the course especially if he doesn't win, will move on and go back to real estate where he can 'win.' But come 4 years from now, these same supporters aren't just going to come around in a practical sense to an establishment Republican candidate after Republicans in the House have surely stoked the fires with investigations into Mrs. Clinton over 'what ever they want,' frankly.

Forming a separate 'alt-conservative' type party is the only way to satisfy the extreme right base, and Republicans, as a party organization, have to decide whether or not that's the direction in which they want to go, but for the establishment we don't think so. Two conservative parties - one more so than the other. The actual viability of two conservative parties is another story all together.

The other exception, more a clarification, is when Ms. Conway says that Mrs. Clinton took money from foreign governments for access to the state department, for which there is no evidence of quid pro quo. However, was there close communication - most certainly. Preferential treatment - most definitely. Lack of transparency - absolutely. But, it wasn't Mrs. Clinton taking the money; foreign governments made donations to the Clinton Foundation, not Mrs. Clinton. That doesn't have to change your mind about the general notion of the donations themselves, but the distinction should be made because of sensible questions of legality. And before a Trump support gets all up in arms about this, do not cast the stone because the Trump Foundation, Mr. Trump's charity, has purchased items that now belong to the Trump Organization, his company, which is certainly not on the up and up, as it were.

With that said, we can in no way say that this election is over. Just as Cubs fans know, it's not a sure thing until the final out is put away. Despite the discrediting of Wikileaks as a whistle-blower organization since they are basically serving as the distribution arm of Russian state-sponsored cyber-espionage, there is always the possibility that some more damaging information could be released that is too big to ignore. Tim Kaine would not as easily be able to deflect revelations from the discredited source as he could today during his interview.

The National Review's Eliana Johnson described the Democrats' different positions on trade as a looming crisis, not equal to the Republicans' internal discord as she attempted, after the election because a Clinton administration are secret free-traders (our term) which goes against the Democratic base, confirmed by Yamiche Alcindor of The New York Times, who had followed the Sanders' campaign who explained that his core supporters, the far-left, don't trust Hillary Clinton.

Is it a crisis - no, but it will be a source of contention because as Chuck Todd assessed, and we agree, that progressives are more tolerant of incrementalism than base conservatives are.

Is Sec. Clinton's position on the Trans-Pacific Partnership a flip-flop? Giving her a little bit of the benefit of the doubt because we've all witnessed so much worse, no. Was it a 'save face' move for political reasons? Of course. Our guess is that if the deal doesn't pass in the lame-duck session, some form of it will eventually go through that will be a little bit easier for the left to swallow, but there will still be scorn about it. Interestingly, what wouldn't have normally been a wild-card in such a deal, is the Republican-controlled House. In ordinary circumstances, a deal like this would get done and the Republican governmental minority (not controlling presidency or Senate) could claim victory. However, with a Trumpian-base firmly in place, who knows?

Lastly, this brings us to the down-ballot races, specifically the Senate because we've already outlined that the House will not go Democratic but will have more balance. The Senate, on the other hand, is another story and it couldn't be a vice-presidential tie-breaking situation where it's 50-50. Ultimately that is Democratic control, which will then move forward on Supreme Court nominations and hence confirmations.

Bottom line is that Trump will severely damage the down-ballot seats for Republicans but will not accomplish the inadvertent mission of completely destroying them. For example, Mr. Trump's candidacy has twisted Senator Kelly Ayotte's (R) reelection bid in New Hampshire into a knot that she can't untie. After saying that Mr. Trump was a role model for kids, she had to eventually cut the rope and disavow him but by then it was too late. This same phenomenon is happening in other Senate races, and Ms. Conway complained that her candidate and Republican Senate candidates are being hit with $66 million in negative ad buys by the Clinton campaign. Right, but if her campaign had that same money to spend, she wouldn't be complaining.

Who's fault is that?

Mr. Trump can't raise money because of his irresponsibly, outrageous, ill-informed rhetoric so that's on him. The rise of his candidacy and the subsequent shattering of the Republican party, that's on Republicans themselves.


Panel: Eliana Johnson, The National Review; Yamiche Alcindor, The New York Times; Thomas Friedman, The New York Times; Stuart Stevens, Republican Strategist