4.17.16: NC HB2 Law Helps No One/ The New York Primary, Act Accordingly

In 2017, Joe Smith and his partner are getting tired of driving so they pull off the highway in North Carolina and proceed directly to the check-in desk of the local Motel 6 franchise and they are going to be refused a room because of their sexual orientation. They sue Motel 6 and lose, but they appeal until in 2018 the case, Smith v. the State of North Carolina overturns the state legislation HB2 that does not protect citizens from discrimination based on their sexual orientation. And why? Because federal law overrides state law, just as state law (NC) overrode municipal (Charlotte) law in this case; and federal law says that the Constitution applies to all U.S. citizens equally.

So to use NBC reporter Perry Bacon's summary, the governor didn't really think it through. Governor McCrory's position on this law is indefensible on both the discriminatory nature and the bathroom stipulation, or should we say ridiculousness. Just reeking of politics, Gov. McCrory is endorsing a law that helps no one. Chuck Todd quoted a figure of 39.7 million dollars of lost revenue to the state, which will surely go up as time passes. State revenue gains through corporate hubs being located there is an easy and big political win for Republicans. That's gone. The country perceives the state legislature as an intentional discriminatory body. Reputation shot. And that's after you've unleashed a ton of potential suffering for a lot of individuals in your state who wanted nothing more than to be left alone. As Mr. Todd rightly asked, "Where was the dialogue?" And the answer is that there was none.

When are Republicans going to learn that these discriminatory social issue battles are always going to be losers for them. The reason they're always going to be losers is because society evolves to become more tolerant and understanding. Despite what Donald Trump may tell you or what law the North Carolina state legislature may pass when social norms and views evolve there is no going backward. Ever.

Reputation Shot.

So why did they make this law? Because of religious beliefs? No one would admit that because taken to extremes it can head toward some very dark corners. And there's the fact that it is a Constitutional no-no; it's against the rules. Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion. 

Those are the rules so we're just asking why.

Speaking of which, the freshly pleasant weather has also brought on a very minor miracle in that this column agrees with something RNC Chairman Reince Priebus put forth, which was that if you didn't know the rules before the game started and now you're complaining about them, too bad. The rules are the rules and they have to be followed. And while we understand that the rules may be considered arcane, silly, and unfair, but they only suck for Donald Trump because they're not working for him. If they were, then everything would be fine.

But shouting into a microphone that the RNC system is rigged is great politically for specifically Donald Trump because he's going to win New York big, then there's Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut coming up so with likely wins in all those states, Mr. Trump can say that he won in spite of the game being 'tilted against' him making it more significant in the eyes of Republican voters.

It plays even bigger when you consider the percentages outlined above when you consider that it's looking likely that Mr. Trump will win the vote total but that Mr. Cruz is likely to win the delegate vote if Trump doesn't reach the threshold of 1,237 prior to the convention. The business that gets done at the convention goes largely unnoticed, but not this year, as Mr. Priebus explained. And while you're watching this business transpire over four days in July on television, you'll be holding your nose or just shaking your head in disgust (no matter who you support).

Conversely, sorry to say for some, the Democratic race is going pretty much how a primary normally goes. There is a moderate, usually the front runner and someone else running to the base flank of the party, who pulls the moderate more toward the base.

That's what is happening but it doesn't speak to personalities, and it's clear that Sec. Clinton's and Sen. Sander's grate up against one another.  Thursday's Democratic debate in Brooklyn was a heated affair but would you expect anything else, especially from Sec. Clinton who absolutely needs to win the state she represented as senator. When Senator Sanders argues that Sec. Clinton is not transparent the crowd roars, which is a great blow to the secretary even though Senator Sander's answers are just as vague on things.  Senator Sanders is capitalizing on the Republican narrative that Mrs. Clinton always has something to hide, etc. as he should because she seems to always put herself in an awkward situation where in hide sight the 'something' wasn't such a great idea, and that's being kind. However, we think that Sec. Clinton should not have to release the transcripts of her speeches to financial firms et al. because she doesn't have to, being a private citizen when she gave them. More importantly, she has released her tax returns for the past twenty-two years, yet no one else running for president, including Bernie Sanders, has disclosed them at all.

With all that said about both sides, of course right now it's nasty with rhetorical ripping and tearing as it could be no other way. At stake you have the primary contest for the state that contains the media and financial capital of the world. Act accordingly.


Panel: Chris Matthews, NBC; Kathleen Parker, The Washington Post; Perry Bacon, NBC; Hugh Hewlitt, conservative commentator

4.10.16: Everyone's Got a Gripe, The Operatives At Play

Everything is being 're-litigated in the negative' in the 'Byzantine system,' in which 'Gestapo tactics' are being used to 'disenfranchise the base of the party.'

In other words, everyone's got a gripe, and every gripe is recorded. The above phrases in quotes all came from today's commentary and the outlook from all sides doesn't seem to be good. We've gotten to a point that in our personal lives when given the choice we expect to get what we want when we want it and if not, why bother? Our politics reflects that notion instead of a more professional stance of putting the small differences aside in order to move forward. In politics, like life, you really can not have it all. That our politics have become a futile zero-sum type of game, without compromise, the result is extreme or unpopular or unrealistic candidates.

Where this has left us on the Democratic side of things is with the unpopular (Sec. Clinton) and the unrealistic (Sen. Sanders). In the senator's interview today he once again walked back the 'unqualified' comment about Sec. Clinton but immediately pivoted to question her judgement citing the former secretary's support for trade deals, fracking and Super PACs that support her. We confess that we're not experts in trade deals, but we can say this about them: They're inevitable and they'll obviously never be perfect so we have to consider them in that frame of mind. In terms of fracking, it's great that we can lead the world in natural gas production but the cost is the great possibility of permanently damaging large supplies of our clean drinking water - a resource that is becoming more scarce worldwide. Also altering our geology so quickly and drastically in some regions that it has precipitated an increase in seismic activity, in Oklahoma for example where earthquakes are now a common occurrence. Fracking is fair game as an issue. However, we find Sen. Sanders's argument that Sec. Clinton's judgement should be questioned because of Super PACs supporting her not all that compelling. Remember that Super PACs came into existence because of the Supreme Court's decision on the Citizens United case fought because of a film that a corporation made about Hillary Clinton, hence giving us the illogical 'corporations are people.' You can equally make effective arguments for rejecting them or using them. The fact is that the other side, unless you're a billionaire, are going to use them to their fullest capacity.  This column comes down on the side of Citizens United being one of the worse decisions by the high court in our lifetimes, but it's the reality. 

The Democratic debate has gotten testy (or whatever equivalent adjective you want to use) for sure but at least it's been mostly centered on policy and the means to achieve goals. This obviously contrasts what's going on with the Republicans who it clearly seems are headed for a contested convention. How do we know this? Hmmm... Maybe because one today's guests was Paul Manafort whose title in the Trump campaign is convention manager. Mr. Manafort was an advisor for Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and the Bushes George. Now he works for Mr. Trump, which just goes to show how much some serious Republican power brokers hate Ted Cruz. It's like one of those blind hates like Republicans have for Sec. Clinton and President Obama.

Also, it seems like there are Republican power brokers, as we called them, on both sides of the Trump/ Cruz nomination argument, but here's how it lines up. Republicans who have been or who have worked with politicians seem to side with Trump whereas the conservative establishment press tends to back Cruz - the practical versus the ideological. Political operatives are backing Trump because he's always talking deals where conversely Senator Cruz speaks of ideology.

The National Review's Rich Lowry, whose publication devoted an entire issue about being against Trump, said that the nominee from the Republican party is going to be either Trump or Cruz so you can easily conclude who Mr. Lowry backs. It's the same with Glenn Beck who is a Cruz supporter, but who is also convinced that he'll be the nominee as well because he's a 'never Trump' guy.  Where Mr. Beck and Mr. Lowry also agree is that anyone else as the nominee was effectively blow up the GOP. But as we've previously said, Mr. Trump is in the race until the end so he's either the Republican nominee or he's the third party.


Panel: Matt Bai, Yahoo News; Molly Ball, The Atlantic; Joy-Ann Reid, NBC News; Rich Lowry, The National Review

One more thing...

We're not sure what's going on with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) but we don't like it. First, he didn't want to be Speaker of the House unless he was the consensus pick, in his mind riding in to save the day. Well, what is up with the "White Knight" complex and the campaign ad that he put out this week? He says he doesn't want the presidential nomination but these not so subtle signals and the weaselly "I'm-not-campaigning" campaigning indicate otherwise and as you can tell, it's really rubbing us the wrong way.

4.3.16: Facts and Math and Reince Strangelove

Presidential doctrine dictates to hold party above any candidate and the good of the country above any party, but there's only one problem with this. It doesn't exist, either in written form or as a notion in the mind of any politician.

We completely understand why some one like Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) would say that he would never vote for a Democrat under any circumstance, but there is still something disheartening about it because you know by reading this column that voting for Donald J. Trump over Hillary Clinton if those are the only two choices is not only irresponsible but un-American. Now, one may say that America needs some one like Mr. Trump as the president to shake things up, which most assuredly he'll do, but it won't be for the betterment of the country. That is also a certainty.

No more exemplified by Mr. Trump's five different answers on abortion in a 48-hour period as Chuck Todd pointed out. With all the various answers it seems that Mr. Trump has an answer for himself as to where he stands on abortion, but doesn't know the right conservative answer, which should tell Republicans something. Conversely, as Helene Cooper pointed out, Sec. Clinton can state her view and then go in depth as to why she has that view, and the record to match.  In particular, when Mr. Todd asked the secretary about legal protections for the unborn, Mrs. Clinton rightly, knowingly, said that no such laws exist and that ultimately women have full rights over their bodies. Whether you agree with her view or not, it's clear that she is more thoughtful on the issue than Mr. Trump. It speaks to the comfort level that New York Times columnist David Brooks mentioned that Democrats have with Hillary Clinton. And as we've said before, if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee, she'll enjoy the support of Republican women as well. 

As distressing as those comments were, even more troubling is Mr. Trump's comprehension of U.S. nuclear policy, or the lack thereof. Mr. Trump has said that he'll keep all cards on the table, even nuclear, when it comes to combating ISIS and that maybe South Korea and Japan should have nuclear arms instead of us protecting them with the deterrent. Once again, Mr. Trump has tried to take what he thinks is the most hard-right position on an issue just for the sake of taking it without understanding the consequences of such a position. It's ridiculous, and the Pentagon is worried.

Despite the worst political week that Mr. Trump has experienced to date, Mr. Brooks is convinced at this point that a Trump nomination is a foregone conclusion but he'll then go down in a 'crushing defeat.' that will be remembered 100 years from now. (Yes, he will get a tweet.) And from what we've written so far, you'd think we, like Mr. Brooks, are already looking toward the general election, but not really as it's more a critique on the depth of knowledge the front-runners from the respective parties have on issues. By that score, the Democrats are way ahead, and if there are two choices, well...

Sec. Clinton does has a transparency problem, whether she actually has been matters not because the perception is there so the problem exists. Having said that, despite the pressure from the Sanders campaign to release the transcripts of her Wall Street speeches, she shouldn't do it. She made those speeches as a private citizen and she's entitled to that privacy, like it or not. Senator Sanders says they should be released because he believes that Sec. Clinton is too closely tied to Wall Street because of contributions, but here's a fact. Wall Street firms were part of fmr. Senator Clinton's constituency.  Regardless, we agree with The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter in that the Democrats are having a skirmish. 

We'd also agree that the Republicans are in the midst of thermo-nuclear war. And the Dr. Strangelove of the bunch, Reince Priebus aka "The Worst Guy In Politics" acts as though everything is going great while the party all around him is crumbling. Even if you consider his circular answers about delegate math, he still does seem to comprehend that the party is broken. If Trump is the nominee, Mr. Priebus will be the one held responsible for tanking the party and jeopardizing Republican majorities in Congress. If Mr. Trump isn't the nominee, all those new Republicans brought into the process that Mr. Priebus likes to boast about, we'll leave the process and go with a third-party Trump run. Reince Strangelove had his finger on the button and he pushed it.

It truly seems as though Mr. Priebus really has learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.


Panel: Amy Walter, Cook Political Report; Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Charles Benson, NBC News - Milwaukee Affiliate; David Brooks, The New York Times

3.27.16: Super Zombies Control the Party Nominations

In this election cycle for both Democrats and Republicans it seems as though it is less about the electoral vote than it is about delegates, specifically what we'll call the super zombies.  As Ben Ginsberg explained, zombie delegates in the Republican party are ones beholden to no one, just as super delegates in the Democratic party.

These super zombies are going to get who they want in the general and it's pretty clear that on the Democratic side of things their choice is Hillary Clinton, despite what Bernie Sanders said in his interview of beginning to convince some of the super zombies to get on his side after he swept yesterday's caucuses in Hawaii, Alaska and Washington. He's not going to convince enough of them that's for sure because it's also clear that in the bigger states where primaries are held, not caucuses, - e.g. New York and California - Sec. Clinton fares much better than Senator Sanders.

However, if Senator Sanders wins the primary vote, why wouldn't the super zombies not support him because polls show that both he and Sec. Clinton beat Donald Trump in the general election. Here's the thing about the super zombies, in both parties they form their the establishment, center-right and center-left, but still center. So where in the Democratic party the electorate views them with scorn and cynicism - part of the problem.

In the Republican party, however, the super zombies are viewed by many as the saviors from political chaos and insanity that has manifested itself in the form of Donald Trump. If Mr. Trump doesn't have the required 1,237 delegates come the convention the super zombies will come in and throw their support behind another candidate, eat up all the Trump supporters and through them behind another candidate, saving the party from itself.

The problem is that these delegates like zombies, if they do that at the convention, have no plan for the "Now, what?" Mr. Trump's supporters as we've said previously are going to go with him, where ever he goes. Mr. Todd pointed out on today's program that Senator Cruz tweeted that Donald Trump is not a Republican, which leaves him an out on the 'supporting the nominee' pledge.

But however he justifies backing out of this pledge, as Hallie Jackson explained, it's a problem for Senator Cruz who prides himself as a man of his word, no matter how wrong those words are. And it is because of wrong words that Senator Cruz is wrong in thinking that the delegates have his back at the convention.

As much as Mr. Trump has disqualified himself to be president because as Andrea Mitchell explained he has no basic knowledge of foreign policy, stunning so, (See the referenced Trump interview with The Washington Post editorial board: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-met-with-donald-trump-electing-him-is-still-a-radical-risk/2016/03/21/bfbe5498-ef90-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html) Senator Cruz inspires little more confidence or competence with five words:  Patrol and secure Muslim neighborhoods.

In the wake of the ISIS terror attacks in Brussels, that was exactly the wrong thing to say here in The United States primarily because it goes against the laws and principles on which the country exists, not that it matters during an election season that on the Republican side has gone way off the rails. Coupled with irresponsible statement was the sad descent of the 'political' discourse into talking about the candidates wives.

For Gov. John Kasich's part, we don't necessarily agree that a vote for him is a vote for Donald Trump, but we don't really disagree either. He surely is pulling votes away from Ted Cruz but just how many or enough? Either way, we like that John Kasich is staying in the race and staying on positive message as the 'told you so' candidate for the Republicans because when it's all said and done, he won't be the nominee but would have been the one to win.

For example, Gov. Kasich said in reaction to failures by the Belgian government leading up to the attacks, he offered that the NATO alliance needs to be reformed into not only a military alliance but a 'policing and intelligence' alliance.  We would agree to the extent that NATO should coordinate all the member intelligence, but we disagree with the policing aspect. Point being is that you can reasonably discuss and argue the merits of these points with John Kasich.

But if not him, then who?

At the top we mentioned that all super zombies (delegates) occupy the same space hovering around the center where you also find the Republican suburban women's vote, and as Andrea Mitchell pointed out, the Clinton campaign (she being the most 'moderate Republican/centrist Democrat' in the race) feels that it can capture it. She can, and she will if the Republican nominee is either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz (Criminally investigating Planned Parenthood is not popular with women.).


Panel: NBC News Campaign Reporting Team: Andrea Mitchell, Kristen Welker, Hallie Jackson, Katy Tur

One more thing...

Happy Easter! If you celebrate this most holy of Christian holidays then we wish you particularly well this weekend.

With that said, here's an informative (and short) article by Rollo Romig in The New Yorker on how Muslims view Jesus: http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/how-muslims-view-easter

No matter what you believe, we'll leave you this week with an image I took yesterday, in which all can understand the sentiment. Again, Happy Easter.

click photo to enlarge

3.20.16: Donald Trump Is In The Race Until The End

Before we start...

Going forward you have to do your political calculus with the understanding that candidate Donald J. Trump will be in the race until the end. Either Republicans support him and award him the nomination to represent them in the general or they deny him the nomination at the convention and he most assuredly runs as a third-party candidate.

Republicans have to decide what is more important to them - winning an election at all costs or keeping your party's principles and philosophies in tact, hence 'saving it' from Donald Trump. Said candidate has one objective and that is to win the presidency. Mr. Trump wants the legitimacy of representing the Republican party in the race, not to mention their support, but it won't change his goal if they don't give it. The Atlantic's Molly Ball alluded to this ever so briefly at the end.

Now...

With that in mind, all the scenarios that senior Republican strategists Steve Schmidt (McCain campaign) and Stuart Stevens (Romney campaign) described respectively are moot. When Mr. Stevens answers that "yes, we can still stop Trump," we need clarification. Stop Trump from what exactly? Getting the nomination? Becoming the president? Mr. Stuart also explained that Mr. Trump is losing Romney voters but that is not going to be enough to swing the nomination away from Mr. Trump. It may, however, legitimize the formation of a third party.

Either way, down ticket races will be affected because if Mr. Trump is the party standard-bearer, that trouble for Republican senators up for re-election in purple states. Compounding this problem for these senators is the obstruction of President Obama's Supreme Court nominee from getting a hearing, orchestrated by Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). One understands his cause of blocking the nomination, hoping for a Republican presidential win, but the risk is huge, and here's why.

First, in today's consecutive interviews with Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. McConnell, it's clear that they have both been hypocritical in their statements about SCOTUS nominees in a president's final year in office. The fact is that this is the luck (or unluck) of the draw with life-time appointments. There are going to be those odd times where the law is inconvenient, but it should still be followed, despite what Sen. McConnell tells you about history and principle.

Getting back to Senate elections, the obstruction of the Supreme Court could cost Sen. McConnell is majority leadership because he's asking senators like Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire to not only run away from the Republican candidate Donald Trump but you're also having them run away from the establishment because of the hard line on the Supreme Court position. Not good at all if you want to hold the majority in the Senate.

With Republican establishment heads spinning around in 360-rotations, a la Linda Blaire and all the chaos, discuss about the Democratic race went under the radar this week with the exception of the topic of Sec. Clinton's speaking style, which apparently receives derisive critiques from male pundits. The only conclusion to draw is that a discussion such as this can only benefit Mrs. Clinton. If male pundits access that Hillary Clinton is shrill and doesn't 'smile enough,' women especially ones over 60 like Joy-Ann Reid outlined would understandably be upset. They would say that  in her victory speech on Tuesday, she was speaking to a big cheering crowd necessitating the need to speak more loudly. In terms of temperament, they would describe it as ' determined.' These types of criticisms  aren't levied against other candidates, but then again, who says any part of politics is fair.


Panel: Jose Diaz-Balart, NBC News; Molly Ball, The Atlantic; Joy-Ann Reed, NBC News; Robert Costa, The Washington Post


One More Thing...

President Obama in Cuba. If he doesn't speak out strongly about political prisoners and dissidents in Cuba, American democracy, human rights today, then all the criticisms of the trip and him going become valid. If he does speak about those things, it will cement Obama's legacy with something history will view in a positive light.

3.13.16: Mr. Trump Showing In His Inner Hugo Chavez

In the wake of Friday's events in Chicago at a Trump rally, we're simply stunned by the comments we heard today not only from Donald Trump but what we didn't hear from John Kasich and Ted Cruz, the latter of whom said that he would in fact support Donald Trump if he's the Republican nominee because Hillary Clinton (and Bernie Sanders) would be a 'manifest disaster' to use his term. But this coming from a man who called the Republican Majority Leader a liar on the floor of Senate and President Obama a world-class demagogue.

In today's interview, Mr. Trump had the gall to rhetorically ask, "What have I said that's wrong?" while blaming 'professional disrupters' for the violence at his rallies. Hugh Hewlitt confirmed that there are in fact professional protesters, and we concur with Mr. Hewlitt (after ripping into him a few weeks back)! We googled it and we found one firm call Crowd on Demand based in Beverly Hills. We are surprised that the only professional protester firm you can hire wasn't in Chicago.  Again ridiculous, and we were coming to the conclusion that Mr. Hewlitt is not a thoughtful conservative. He seems stuck in his own echo chamber.

Mr. Trump takes no ownership of responsibility for the incendiary rhetoric - Mexicans as rapists, Islam hating America, etc. - that has caused the protests to form in the first place. Not to mention that on this very program this week he said that if Bernie Sanders' supporters came to more Trump rallies to try and disrupt them, he would call for his supporters to go after Bernie's. What?......... He then proclaimed that his rallies are peaceful. In Mr. Trump's view, there's only democracy for the people who support him, which isn't democracy at all! Mr. Trump even accused Chuck Todd of not loving the American flag as much as him when discussing an incident in.

People, this is Hugo Chavez type stuff.

For Ted Cruz, Reince Priebus, Chris Christie, Ben Carson and the rest of the crazy right-wingers who condone or (gasp) endorse Donald Trump, they should be ashamed of themselves for putting blind ambition ahead of country. Running a country is not the same as running a business and if you think it is, either your ego and wallet are so big that you think that's the way it should be or you're not informed enough on the matter to know the difference.

In a way, we hope that Donald Trump does get the nomination and it destroys the Republican party because we're so fed up with the denials, ignoring of facts, lies, obstruction and partisanship to the extent that it damages the country as a whole. As it is right now, the Republican party no longer functions as a public good. Winning at all costs is the only thing that matters instead of looking to do the one thing  explicit in the name of The United States of America, and that is to united people.

Short post this week, but we refuse to ruin the rest of our pleasant Sunday discussing the disgusting Donald Trump.


Panel: Alex Castellanos, Republican Strategist, Anne Gearan, The Washington Post, Doris Kearns Goodwin, presidential historian; Hugh Hewlitt, conservative commentator


One more thing...

Ted Cruz won the Guam caucus.

3.6.16: For the Republican Base, Mitt Romney Is The Problem. A Self-Awareness Problem.

An election is a process, most times educational (good or bad), sometimes cathartic, at times shocking, and always repeating itself between a series of campaign peaks. Unlike previous election processes, this one as it concerns Republicans has turned wild and ugly... not to mention juvenile but that another story.

However, the next peak in the comes March 15 when Floridians and Ohioans respectively go to the polls and in the time until then, the Republican establishment is going to try desperately to repair a party, for which the conservative consensus is fractured.  In the role of chief mechanic for these repairs, the establishment has brought back Mitt Romney who delivered a scathing rebuke of Trump the candidate and the businessman, to which David Brooks said it was about time. However, we would agree with former Dick Cheney adviser Mary Matalin who said it was the wrong messenger at the wrong time. What seems to have not sunken in for Gov. Romney and the establishment is that the Republican base understands that they are trying to be 'reasoned' with but it's not going to work because of all the empty rhetoric they've been fed for so long with nothing to show for it. The base is aware of all this and is rejected it.

Mr. Romney doesn't have a good answer when it comes to why he was so enthusiastic four years ago to accept Donald Trump's endorsement while now he calls him a scam artist or whatever. Mr. Romney, you reap what you sew...

The Detroit Free Press' Stephen Henderson pointed out that the Trump candidacy is the product of unfulfilled rhetoric, in which many Republicans systematically used coded language that reeked of bigotry. Remember Sarah Palin shouting about 'taking our country back' in trying to deny President Obama re-election to a second term? This kind of bigoted dog-whistle has been going on for the last 40 years. And when Mary Matalin says that she wants to choke Stephan Henderson because she thinks it's not true, furthers the point.

[For all this talk today about inappropriate comments and staying away from them on "Meet The Press," they sure had their own share. Ms. Matalin's was just one. The other was when Chuck Todd referred to a David Brooks analogy as "Trump Goggles." This term referencing "beer goggles," a sophomoric sexist comment in itself, and by the look on Mr. Todd's face when he said it, he knew it.]

Ms. Matalin explained that conservatives don't see themselves as racists and bigots using coded language, to which we would suggest that they step outside themselves and take a serious look because it's no accident that the majority of the country perceives the Republican base (not the establishment) that way. That may not necessarily be fair, but that's the way it is, and nominating Donald Trump doesn't help that perception. The time for reasoning, and reason, is over.

Mr. Todd showed a clip of a Trump rally where he had everyone raise their right hand to make a pledge to vote for him. They didn't reference him by name, but you know they were making the Hitler reference.



Scary.

But really it just more silliness in Mr. Trump's ultimate reality role - presidential candidate.


Panel: Kelly O'Donnell, NBC News; Stephen Henderson, The Detroit Free Press; David Brooks, The New York Times; Mary Matalin, fmr. advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney

2.28.16: The Republican Primary Never Ceases to Amaze

If you want to be the man, you have to beat the man.
                                                                   -Ric Flair

We didn't anticipate starting off today's column with a quote from professional wrestling icon Ric Flair, but this is how Chuck Todd assessed the Republican race despite its devolution into a name-calling challenge. Conservative standard bearer, RedState's Erick Erickson called the performances at Thursday night's Republican debate "childish." But here we stand with Donald Trump in the clear lead to win the Republican party nomination for president - an unmitigated disaster for the party establishment who will stay home, according to Mr. Erickson, if Mr. Trump is in fact the nominee.

Senators Rubio and Cruz have had to get waist-deep in the mud with Mr. Trump in a last ditch effort to stop his momentum, which as Mr. Todd described as unsuccessful. Not surprising for Senator Cruz as anyone can rationalize that it was just a matter of time before that happened, and by natural extension Mr. Cruz contributed more today by saying that Mr. Trump has done business with the mafia in his development dealings. A serious charge that at this point just comes across as just another inflammatory remark thrown into the circus-like mix of rhetoric. However, for Senator Rubio, going to this level debases his candidacy and will ultimately be his downfall. He has wrongly been advised that to win, Mr. Rubio has to play Mr. Trump's game, but here's the problem with that: It's Trump's game, and as a casino owner will tell you, "The house always wins." If Senator Rubio really wants to win, he has to change the game entirely, which he seems unable to do.

Andrea Mitchell said that a Democratic woman would have trouble in a debate against a candidate like Mr. Trump, but especially Hillary Clinton who is vulnerable on the e-mail issue and on political Benghazi attacks. However, looking at the field, it may be that only a Democratic woman could change the game and beat Mr. Trump. Senator Rubio, the establishment's hope, is going to lose - period, hard stop.

Given that, it's either an open convention, which would turn a fracture into a clean break of the Republican party or it's a Trump nomination where the establishment, and its money, will stay home. Either way, it doesn't look good for the Republican Party headed into Super Tuesday, for which Mr. Todd outlined a number of scenarios in which either Mr. Rubio or Mr. Cruz could emerge as the legitimate number 2 candidate for the nomination. However, none of it matters because after Tuesday, if the polls are projecting even somewhat accurately Mr. Trump is going to be too far ahead for them to catch up.

Charles Cook explained today how Mr. Trump is held to a lower standard than the other candidates by the press as he is never asked what policies he would put in place, only offering that for what ever it is it will be bigger and better if Mr. Trump is president. One, this is true, and two, it will change during the general election when the press gangs up on him with the realization that he could actually take the office.

However, it's also a matter of leadership, which wasn't discussed today and we're referring to the leadership that should be coming from the party itself, meaning Reince Preibus the Republican National Committee chair. He has been absent during this campaign and under his leadership, he has allowed the Republican race to become a "farce," as Erick Erickson described it. Mr. Preibus seems to believe that even Donald Trump, under the moniker of the Republicans, winning the presidency would be a good thing for his party, which is so misguided that it is a wonder he's still the chairman of the party.

Helping Mr. Preibus' delusion is the fact that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie endorsed Mr. Trump for president this week, something that the entire panel assessed as naked political opportunism, which it most certainly is. The endorsement is completely disingenuous, sure, but let's face it, Gov. Christie is going to need a job. If Trump wins, Christie's in the cabinet. If Mr. Trump loses, at least for his loyalty, Mr. Christie will have a job with Mr. Trump doing something somewhere. Well played Mr. Christie.

And speaking of endorsements, Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) came on today's "Meet The Press" to endorse Senator Bernie Sanders for president. For the Democrats the debate has been much more civil by comparison and productive to the voters - there's substance there. We like the fact that Sec. Clinton has had the strong challenge from the left courtesy of Senator Sanders because otherwise, the Democratic voters wouldn't have had  a say in the positions that the eventual nominee with advocate for in the general election, the point made by Heather McGhee of Demos Action. However, in Rep. Gabbard's reasons endorsement of Senator Sanders, she explained the he has a military mindset and would be strong on foreign policy. Maybe he will be strong in that area, but a 'military mindset' is something Senator Sanders has yet to show.

Senator Sanders is running a strong campaign, but Sec. Clinton with a blow out win in South Carolina and favored heavily in most Super Tuesday primary states, the party seems to be running its most predicable course. The Republican primary, on the other hand, has come close to reaching its full potential of volatility, in which the culmination of these smaller rhetorical explosions on the campaign trail could result in a political nuke being set off at the Republican convention in Cleveland. So much potential that it makes the 'predictability' of the Democratic race translate into 'stability.'


Panel: Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Charles Cook, The Cook Political Report; Heather McGhee, President of Demos Action; Erick Erickson, RedState.com

2.21.16: Hugh Hewlitt's Lost Logic and Harry's Solid For Hillary

After last night's South Carolina primary, it's clear from today's "Meet The Press" that Hugh Hewlitt's logic writ large on the Republican race has been knocked off its moorings. Mr. Hewlitt is still sticking to the line of thinking that Marco Rubio has a chance to win in Nevada and will win Florida, his home state, to which the rest of the panel all scoffed.  The go-to for Nevada politics, Jon Ralston, said that Trump would win easily in Nevada, given his financial ties. Mr. Hewlitt hasn't come to the reality that Joy-Ann Reid sharply put into focus for him which is that winning the establishment vote as Marco Rubio is doing isn't winning the nomination. That goes to someone who actually comes in first and that's Donald Trump. When Chuck Todd posed to Mr. Hewlitt that if the front runner were anyone else besides Donald Trump, the nomination would already be sewn up, to which he replied, because "This is the last war." The time between now and the March 1st super Tuesday, 14-state primary will be make or break for a 'traditional' Republican candidate.

When he commented on the Democratic race, he was no more sound. His general premise always has been the Hillary Clinton is a 'tremendously flawed' candidate. Never mind that in terms of flaws, the Republicans candidate are on the same playing field. That aside, he went on to explain that voters are sophisticated and will realize this. But who was he referring to, exactly?

Was he talking about voters in general or just Democratic voters as they relate to Hillary Clinton's campaign. We dissect this because obviously he doesn't think that Republican voters are sophisticated because they're voting for Donald Trump so he must be referring to Democrats who by extension are smarter voters?

If that wasn't enough, at the end of the program, Mr. Hewlitt stated that he'd rather lose the election than lose the Supreme Court, to which Chuck Todd pointed out that Republicans lose the election, they do in fact lose the Supreme Court. To save face, Mr. Hewlitt clarified as a general premise.  But what is he talking about? Who ever wins the next election that person could be confirming three new justices who will all most probably serve for the remainder of his lifetime. 

This is the general state of denial that the establishment is experiencing. As for the Republican talk-radio establishment, they're not fairing any better getting behind Ted Cruz. In his interview today, Sen. Cruz talked about how real conservatives were uniting around his campaign, building momentum. Chuck Todd had to take him down, and did. Below is the full clip, beginning with Mr. Cruz calling last night, "an incredible evening."



Senator Cruz finished third as Mr. Todd bluntly [read: rightly] pointed out, in the most evangelical state so far. If in South Carolina they deem your campaign the most dishonest, you know you have to be scraping the bottom of people's favorability lists. On this first Super Tuesday, Texas and Tennessee will be key indicator states for both Senators Cruz and Rubio respectively. The panel didn't seem bullish on the prospect of Senator Cruz carrying his own state and in Tennessee where establishment candidates go to become whole again, Senator Rubio's chances are iffy at best. Senator Rubio said that 70 percent of Republicans [nationally] are against Mr. Trump and those are the people who will eventually back him, but don't believe the hype on that because there will be 5 candidates in the race, most probably, through the March 15th primary that features Florida and Ohio. This is the day that John Kasich gets out. He'll carry his home state but lose big overall yet be ready for the VP choice if the nominee isn't Trump. Rubio, as we are now obligated to point out to Hugh Hewlitt and others, hasn't won any state contests yet.

Despite insistence by some to the contrary, there is a clear front runner is both races. While to understate the convoluted nature of the Republican race, on the Democratic side, the case for Hillary Clinton is becoming ever stronger, and despite what Mr. Hewlitt would tell you, she is the most electable candidate on either side of the aisle. The panel touched on a point that is going to start resonating louder and louder and that is that the proposals that Senator Sanders has been advocating for are going to be insanely expensive, as high as $31 Trillion over ten years. Once moderate Democrats and Independents start thinking about that number seriously, Sec. Clinton will solidify her advantage and her argument that it's just not realistic to reshape the economy so drastically as Senator Sanders proposes.

That's the argument but as Joy-Ann Reid expertly pointed out, it will be African-Americans who will control Hillary Clinton's fate and ultimately who is nominated. Ms. Reid also explained that it would specifically be African-Americans over 50, which is one of the key groups that we would argue knows best the pulse of the Democratic heart. Growing up as teenagers in neglected cities of the seventies, you remember the people who came and stood up for you the longest because at this point, this group of people has seen it all when it comes to the system being stacked in another direction, admitting what they know it is: institutional racism. Thank you, Ms. Reid for this point.

That fact, along with Harry Reid making a few phone calls (not everything that happens in Vegas stays there), carried the state of Nevada for Sec. Clinton. How about that?

As Jon Ralston explained, Senator Harry Reid - the guy even many Democrats love to hate - is still the most powerful pugilist in Nevada politics and on his way out changed the direction of the race, giving Hillary Clinton a vital up, the line she needed to climb to the nomination. And he did one more solid for a guy he is rather fond of, President Barack Obama. One must acknowledge that Senator Reid fought some ugly fights on behalf of the president and was motivated to protect his legacy by getting people out to the polls ultimately for the person who's openly still advocating for the president's policies.

And if, in fact, the momentum from Sec. Clinton's win in Nevada propels her to the nomination and then she goes on to indeed win the presidency, she will appoint those judges and that will be the legacy of Senator Harry Reid.

Mr. Hewlitt's worst nightmare.


Panel: Hugh Hewlitt, conservative commentator; Joy-Ann Reid, NBC News; Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report; Jon Ralston, Reno Gazette-Journal

A few more things:
Mr. Hewlitt explained that Jeb Bush was the wrong man for the wrong time. Perhaps. However, unfortunately for Jeb Bush, the real irony perhaps is that following his older brother's presidency there never was nor would there be a right time. Will Gov. Bush's legacy be rewritten as Ms. Reid described, to which Mr. Todd agreed that he benefited from the Clinton economy in the 90's when he was in office and then got out before his brother became established in his office? Maybe, but we would speculate, unlikely.

And lastly, as I always like to do - a shout out to our veterans, no matter what generation. I took this photo yesterday in lower Manhattan, The Korean War Memorial. Note the background, specifically through the soldiers left leg.

click on photo to enlarge