We're two days away from the election deadline - Tuesday, November 3rd for those not paying attention - and in the cosmic political universe of "what if's" anything can still happen with various, variable polls and pollsters trading election night scenarios.
The only certainties at this point is that the United States has recorded 9.2 million Covid-19 infections and of 230,000 deaths from the disease. In spite of this objective failure on the part of the administration, the presidential contest and Senate races despite all the pontification are tight.
Last week this column provided some predictions of how we thought election night would play out and as ever more considerations come in about how the stars will align, we still see the same outcomes. Today's panelists are equally as confounded as to how things will play out, but their conversation starters, we found edifying.
Chuck Todd, being from the state of Florida, said that it is a state that is never won the same way twice. If you follow state to state politics, you intrinsically know this, but when it's said aloud, it's so damn true and that's why it's still anyone's race in Florida.
As for Georgia, former Senate Claire McCaskill said that it's surprising for Democrats to be talking about and campaigning in states like Georgia and Texas at this point in the race, but especially the former with not one contested Senate race but two. Just writing about it seems borderline ridiculous, but in ridiculous times we are in, indeed. The important thing to watch in the Georgia senate race is if either candidate gets over 50% of vote. If neither breaks that threshold it goes to a run-off as the second open seat is headed for. Mr. Ossoff (D) does have moment as Sen. McCaskill explained but enough to avoid a run-off is anyone's guess. If Georgia does in fact go to the Democrats, the credit will and should be rightfully given to Stacey Abrams and the continual fight against suppressing the vote and also turning it out in communities of color.
North Carolina will be a key early indicator on how the race is shaping up because the Senate race is linked to the presidential race. Really, does anyone see a voter in North Carolina splitting the ticket? Rich Lowry pointed out that the state is vulnerable because Senator Thom Tillis (R) is a terrible politician and is in lock-step with the president, but that also Democrat Cal Cunningham has an infidelity scandal. One can't help but see the irony that Mr. Todd pointed out, that the president's infidelity scandals may have diminished the impact that it has on voters' attitudes. What an election...
And then there's Pennsylvania... And if you're from there as this column is there's the old joke that between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is like Alabama. (And no, that's not what this column thinks of the state.) The key to Pennsylvania is turnout and if the Democratic voters turn out they win, but the enthusiasm isn't always there, clearly. Republicans for their part need places like Erie and the suburbs of the aforementioned cities to go their way. Not an easy sell for either candidate and that's why we do think that the race is much closer than the polls suggest.
To close it out, if you haven't yet, go VOTE, VOTE, VOTE! And yes, who ever you support. Also, be patient with the counting and state reporting because no matter how long it takes, that's too much time. The map is certainly bigger in terms of contested and close races and don't forget about the House races because it's more vital for Democrats to pick up seats than it even is for Republicans.
All of which will make for a suspenseful night on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning and soon this cosmic swirling political universe of "what-if's" will end and you'll be able to stop asking if the stars have aligned, if Mercury was in retrograde, if another discovered planet is in the Goldilocks Zone, if we can get back from political Uranus, if Space Force is a thing, if we can and need to get to Mars, and if in fact there is water on the moon.
And if you think we've overdone it on the outer space metaphor, it's because this entire election season has been outer limits.
See you on the other side.
Panel: Kasie Hunt, NBC News; Kristen Welker, NBC News; Claire McCaskill, fmr. senator (D-MO); Rich Lowry, The National Review
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