10.25.20: With Nine Days to Go Until the Election Deadline, It's Time to Put Up or Shut Up

With nine days to go until the voting deadline on November 3rd, it's time to make closing arguments and put up or shut up. Since 50 million Americans have already cast their votes, a week from this Tuesday is not so much election day as it is the deadline to get your vote in.

In these final days of the campaign, it's still anyone race but the warning signs for a bad Republican outcomes are growing and it's starts where it all began four years ago and that's with the top of the ticket. President Trump's inability to articulate a vision for his second term is crippling his campaign because simply attacking your opponent with unfounded accusations isn't going to win the day. 

The president says that he's is tired of talking about "COVID, COVID, COVID...," but it is precisely because of COVID-19 that his campaign and reelection prospects are flagging. Frankly, if the administration put in the work eight months ago, the pandemic would still be with us, but maybe 100,000 Americans less would have perished and the president could say, honestly, that every we could do has been done. Then he could have truly made a sound argument for a post-pandemic America. 

Alas... 

This is not what happened and this coup-de-gras failure has exacerbated all the other outrageousness behavior and negligence throughout the president's first term.

With all that said, it's time...

Many people have asked this column, straight up, who is going to win the presidential election. In our answer, we have been taking a breath before answering because you must consider where it may head before knowing who ultimately wins. 

Because early voting, especially mail-in ballots heavily favors Democrats, not all the vote totals will in on election night while same-day voting is thought to favor Republicans and at the end of election night it will show Mr. Trump leading. This seems to be the common wisdom for many political pundits and the worry for many Joe Biden supporters, but this isn't what is going to happen. 

By the morning of November 4th, Joe Biden will in fact be ahead and as more votes are counted, it will confirm or even enhance his lead. Yes, it is that bad for President. This week's debate didn't move the needle in either direction if only to affirm that VP Biden has a much better knowledge of the issues and the nuances surrounding them. (Let's face it, if we didn't grade Mr. Trump on such a curve where it says simply that if you don't shout, you still make sense and graded him on the same scale as we do Mr. Biden, then the former VP still cleaned his clock.)

We'll go on record to say that ultimately Joe Biden will be the next president.

With that existential dread over with, let's get to the fun stuff - the Senate races.

During the panel discussion, Mr. Todd asked each individual which state race he or she is watching, as follows:

Amy Walter: North Carolina where Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is still ahead of incumbent Thom Tillis despite a late breaking sex scandal.

Mark Murray: Iowa where it's an even race at the presidential and senatorial levels. Seniors are playing a role switching support to Biden and incumbent Joni Ernst doesn't know the break even cost on a bushel of soybeans ($10 btw).

Yamiche Alcindor: South Carolina where Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his life against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison who is pulling out all the stops with the incredible amount of campaign contributions he received.

Anna Palmer: Maine where Susan Collins tries to maintain her balancing act of being a bi-partisan moderate Republican but her lack of being just that and her gullibility when it comes to her judgement on President Trump.

We're watching this and a few more.

Starting with North Carolina and Maine, we think that Democrats will take both races. North Carolinians won't split their ticket and Joe Biden is up in the state. As for Maine, it just seems like the people there are simply fed up with Susan Collins rolling over at critical moments of Mr. Trump's presidency. Cal Cunningham (D) in North Carolina and Sara Gideon (D) in Maine.

For control of the Senate, Chuck Todd outlined the following state where the race is a toss up: Arizona, Montana, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, in addition to the aforementioned Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina and Iowa.

Iowa is close and historically does swing back and forth and this time around, we think ultimately Iowa is going for a change, will not split the ticket and go for both Joe Biden and Theresa Greenfield in the Senate.

South Carolina, on the other hand, is going to disappoint Democrats and Jaime Harrison is going to come up just short in race that would have thought to have been closer in the end. Lindsey Graham loses his standing, his power, his influence but not his seat in the Senate. 

For Republicans, Arizona is gone. Martha McSally, who was appointed to the seat after losing her previous bid for the senate against Kyrstan Sinema, has done nothing to convince people that she has earned the seat. Meanwhile, there is Mark Kelly, astronaut and American hero who is married to former Congresswoman Gabbie Giffords. Mark Kelly running away.

In Colorado, Corey Gardner doesn't even seem to be running for reelection because he knows the former governor John Hickenlooper is going to win in a wash.

As for Georgia, Amy Walter explained that it would be bad for Democrats if senate control came to two run-off elections in Georgia in January. However, we don't think it's going to come to that and Democrats will have control by the time the Georgia senate rates are decided. It's a tough one to decide so with permission, we'll say that Georgia is either going to be split with one Senator from each party or it stays in full Republican control, by a small margin.

So there it is, we've put up, so now we'll shut up.

Panel: Yamich Alcindor, PBS News Hour; Amy Walter, Cook Political Report; Anna Palmer, Politico; Mark Murray, NBC News

10.18.20: Secretary Alex Azar Explains Mitigation Fatigue, But For Clarification...

As of this writing, there are twenty-six states seeing a significant increase in cornoavirus infections, which going into cold and flu season could put significant stress on a healthcare system already stretched beyond its limits.  

Because of this fact, Chuck Todd acknowledged the urgency in Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar's voice to adhere by the "3 W's" - Wash you hands, Watch your distance and Wear a mask. Until we have a vaccine, he said, these are the measures that he's asking Americans to take. It's a message that all people should take to heart, so then why is this message so difficult for the president, Mr. Todd asked the secretary.

And then...

Mr. Azar explained that because of mitigation fatigue it's difficult for all western democracies, never addressing the president's dangerous messaging. He said that we're weeks away from having vaccines apply for FDA approval, something that we should be "celebrating," he exclaimed. Pardon if we're not in a celebratory mood. Then after equivocating on whether it is administration policy to advocate for herd immunity, something pushed by the White House's resident quack Dr. Scott Atlas, Mr. Azar finally came around to say 'no.' 

Secretary Azar explained mitigation fatigue inasmuch as the populace is tired of being responsible in taking the measures he's advocating and that the president has disdain for. We get, people are tired of wearing masks.

However...

We're also mitigating the fatigue of seeing an administration abdicating its responsibility on the coronavirus.

We're mitigating the fatigue of a president who constantly sells out our troops and our allies.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the stress of an orange human being bombarding our thoughts every day.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the racial animus and economic disaster that this president has wrought upon the country. 

We're mitigating the fatigue of so many lies this president has told.

We're mitigating the fatigue of wanting this election to be over.

We're mitigating the fatigue of the loathing we feel at the prospect of Mr. Trump winning reelection. 

So Secretary Azar, let's please have that discussion about mitigating fatigue, because as Mark Leibovitch explained, there's going to be no pivot on the part of the president. The press keeps talking about how if the president could pivot his messaging... Ain't gonna happen. His speeches will continue to spray divisiveness, false science and undemocratic ideas like "fit in a shan," (if you get our meaning).  

Ten days after 13 people, now 14, were indicted for planning a plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, the president campaign in the state advocated for "locking her up." Governor Whitmer said that she didn't want to discuss the danger to politicians but in fact the danger in the face of 220,000 people having died from Covid-19. She also said that it's disturbing that the president hasn't denounced the the threat against her and her family, but that she was going to continue to do her job. Unlike Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) who is not a profile in courage as The Washington Post's Ashley Parker explained for his trashing of the president on a campaign conference call with 17,000+ supports, Governor Whitmer is such a profile. She continues to speak out despite all this. And keep in mind, the governor and her family (young kids) had been living with this threat for months before the arrests were made.

Lastly, we'd be remiss if we didn't comment on the sobering reality check provided by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, who does not share Secretary Azar's optimism. There are two ways to achieve herd immunity - through vaccination or a massive death total. Vaccination, Dr. Osterholm explained, won't be widely available until the third quarter of next year, maybe sooner. So if we don't want massive death until then we have to fight through the fatigue and continue to mitigate. To do that, Dr. Osterholm explained that we need consistent messaging that is science based, something he said we haven't had from the beginning. 

So there's that... Boy, are we tired.

 

Panel: Ashley Parker, The Washington Post; Donna Edwards, fmr. congresswoman and Post columnist; Mark Leibovitch, New York Times Magazine; Pat McCrory, fmr. governor of North Carolina

10.11.20: Dim Prospects for the Super Spreader in Chief and Senate Republicans

"It was a very good week for Senate Republicans," said Hugh Hewitt with 23 days until the election. That may be true in North Carolina where Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham has to now respond to allegations of an affair. Otherwise, it's difficult to see how Senate Republicans have benefited this week from a president who continues to be cavalier (that's being charitable) in his messaging about the virus. His positive diagnosis and then the less-than-forthcoming medical information about his condition have left people to label the president as a "super spreader" of the virus. Coupled with disastrous debates by Marth McSally (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), the last of whom got his clock cleaned by Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. 

There are two Republican senators of the judiciary committee who have tested positive for the coronavirus, but the Republican-controlled Senate is pushing ahead with the Supreme Court confirmation while at the same time, these very Republican senators are holding up a relief package for the American people. It also doesn't help Republicans that the president has switched positions on the relief package three times this week.

Speaking of the court, it's Constitutional for the Republican Senate to confirm Judge Barrett, and they will do it, as we've previous said. Given that 7 in 10 Americans want the Senate to wait until after the election, it seems wrong to push this nomination through. The controversy surrounding this nomination process stems from the hypocritical position the Republicans have put themselves in because of what they said 4 years ago, that a justice should not be confirmed in an election year. Despite this, Republicans are pushing ahead because they see their electoral prospects becoming dimmer by the day. All this has prompted the media to press the Biden campaign on whether or not Democrats would "pack" the court if they were to take control of the White House and Senate. Former VP Biden has refused to answer this question. There's that saying, "Give the people what they want," but it by no means applies to your political opponent. In other words, Mr. Biden should not answer this question because it only creates political fodder - don't lend out ammunition against yourself, politics 101.

Mr. Biden, smartly, is keeping the attention on the Trump Administration's handling, or lack thereof, of the coronavirus pandemic. In this week's vice-presidential debate, where a fly on VP Pence's head took center stage,  Ms. Harris pointed out that Mr. Pence is the head of the Covid-19 task force and over 210,000 Americans have died on his watch. And of course, it begs the question that if the Administration can't keep the staff of the White House safe, how are we to expect they can provide the populace writ large? 

Twenty-five percent of Americans feel the president is doing a good job on battling the pandemic and a majority thinks the country is on the wrong track. Yet, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who is in self-quarantine, believes that this election will turn on optimism and turn out. First, that's a lot of optimism for 25 percent to shoulder and it's fear that driving turnout - fear that is coming from both sides. Democrats have the existential fear of another Trump term and the president has been stoking fear in his base for the past 4 years. Optimism was a nice thought put forth by Mr. Cruz, but all evidence indicates that the American people are hardly feeling that way.

And if you want confirmation on how well the Administration is doing, look no further than Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) who hasn't been to the White House in months, saying that the White House hasn't taken precautions that he has feels necessary to take in the Senate [read: The White House is not safe.] On top of this, we still don't know if the super spreader in chief hasn't tested negative for the virus while he has scheduled three rallies this week. Think about all the personnel involved in moving the president and the danger it creates for potential spread, but as NBC's Hallie Jackson explained, Mr. Trump feels that getting out and doing rallies is the only way to turn things around for his reelection. 

Despite what the president said this week, this is no cure and there is no vaccine for the virus, as Bill Gates confirmed in his interview today. Mr. Gates also explained that a vaccine could be ready for next year but that it would be a second or third generation of a vaccine to get life back to normal. However, unequivocally, Mr. Gates said that the United States has the worst testing system of any country and we will see a significant amount of more deaths if the leadership doesn't get its act together. Only problem, that's not going to happen any time soon.

*****

Lastly, there is grave concern in the FBI that white supremacists are the number one domestic threat in the country, and it was clearly evidenced this week with the arrest of 13 individuals who plotted to kidnap the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, and put her on 'trial' in another state. For the average American, this is WTF?. As the panel agreed, this is a straight up act of terrorism, but Mr. Hewitt pointed out that this should preclude the president criticizing the governor for her handling of the coronavirus in her state. What a dodge and a contribution to the problem. Governor Whitmer had to be living with this threat for months and surely the president knew about it. But in these months, the president has refused to denounce white supremacists [see: Stand Back and Stand By]. When Gov. Whitmer stated in a press conference that leaders who encourage these groups or give them a pass are complicit. Jake Sherman reported that the Republican response on the Hill has been muted, further demonstrating their collective fecklessness. Timothy McVeigh was no rogue actor, he was backed by the Michigan Militia. It's sad to say, but this domestic terror threat will only become more emboldened with a Trump election win. However, the FBI and law enforcement anticipate immediate violence in the wake of a Trump lose. Lose-lose until we formally and legally recognize these group for what they are, terrorists.

 

Panel: Hallie Jackson, NBC News; Jake Sherman, Politico; Hugh Hewitt, Salem Radio Network; Maria Teresa Kumar, Voto Latino

 

10.4.20: Continually Testing But Ultimately Failing

The administration's attitude toward the Covid-19 pandemic, specifically the president's, has been metaphoric of their performance over the last four years. The president keeps being tested and ultimately he's failed the test.

Before going further on this point, it must be said that we hope that the president and the first lady make a healthy and speedy recovery. For all the divisive statements and actions the president has adopted, he is after all the president of the United States and for the sake of the American people you never want to see the president's health in danger.

Yet, with the president now at Walter Reed Hospital whose condition has been made less than clear, we see again that the Trump Administration and its campaign are putting politics over the safety of the nation. By having Vice President Mike Pence go out on the trail, the Trump campaign is putting the continuity of government at risk. That is to say unless the administration wants Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to act as president as she is third in line. As Peggy Noonan explained, the nation is in a state of emergency and that should require leaders to be in Washington, especially the vice president. It's another small test of the Administration that they don't even realize they're failing.

Given the irresponsibility that the campaign has thus far demonstrated in terms of following CDC protocols, Senior Campaign Advisor Jason Miller's are hardly reassuring when he says that he has no concerns at all about the "aggressive" campaign schedule planned this week for the vice president. "Meet The Press" wasn't the only Sunday program that Mr. Miller on and throughout he manages to have the gall keeping a straight face while explaining that the president has always urged the American people to get tested and socially distance with a mask in between tests.

During the debate, the president mocked Mr. Biden for wearing a mask, even when he's '200 feet away from people' but isn't for the president to model behavior recommended by his health experts? For Mr. Trump, his answer during the debate was 'no' as he openly disagreed with administration health officials. 

Throughout this pandemic, the president's failures have been well documented along with all the misinformation he has unceasingly spouted, but while the reasoning that if the president can contract the virus anyone can is sound, the administration DID NOT take all the necessary precautions to protect the president. The truth here is that President Trump is the administration and he acted irresponsibly and now he is among over 7 millions Americans infected with Covid-19.

The debate, if that's what we're calling it, was certainly an embarrassment but it was also instructive in some ways. As the National Review's Rich Lowry pointed out, Mr. Trump's strategy was to steam roll Mr. Biden but the fmr. vice president didn't buckle. The big elephant in the room is to ask why the president took this strategy instead of the consequence of it. Mr. Trump couldn't debate the issues because on the most important to the American people, he has failed the test. Obviously on he's failed on his pandemic response (He's contracted it!) but in the wake of George Floyd's and Breonna Taylor's deaths, he failed to bring heal the country. Going back to what seems like a distant memory, the administration completely botched the response to Hurricane Maria and the relief effort for Puerto Rico. 

In terms of healthcare writ large, the administration is seeking to completely nullify the Affordable Care Act in the midst of a pandemic with no replacement plan. On the economy, pandemic recession aside, the trade deficit with China that Mr. Trump says he's combatting is higher than it's ever been and we're in a manufacturing recession. As Peggy Noonan said, getting 90 minutes undiluted Donald Trump is just too much. The reason is that Mr. Trump's sound bite discourse is catches up with him in a debate setting because he can not speak intelligently and insightfully about any issue important to the American people. The populace, even Republicans deep down, implicitly know that Mr. Trump has failed these tests of leadership. With him contracting Covid-19, these failures all come into crystalizing relief.

Even though Mr. Biden didn't really help himself all that much during a debate where he also made a few regrettable remarks, referring to the president as a clown, but it was clear that Mr. Biden went into the debate hoping to have some semblance of normal discourse where it was clear that that was not Mr. Trump's intention at all. Americans are literally sick and tired, and the realization that after four years, the president still can not demonstrate the capacity for empathy and helpful thought-out solutions to the country's ills is the reason why Mr. Biden has a 14 point lead on Mr. Trump. 

Do we need more debates? Interestingly both Rich Lowry and Peggy Noonan, connected in Republican circles, both feel that we've seen the last one in the 2020 election cycle. Maybe they know more details about the president's health that the rest of us do not. The president's health aside, as Jeh Johnson said, it would be very helpful to have more debates, but not like this last one.

Panel: Jennifer Palmieri, Democratic Strategist; Jeh Johnson, fmr. Security of Homeland Security; Rich Lowry, National Review; Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal