Sunday, April 26, 2020

4.26.20: We Have Failed to Meet the Moment

Here's a statistic that Chuck Todd presented that illustrates clearly the tragedy of this virus:

12 weeks - 53,000+ deaths from COVID-19
12 years - 58,000+ U.S. military deaths in Vietnam.

When asked about the death totals, the president responded that he thought they did a 'great job,' and then goes on to explain to that it could have been millions. However, the reason it is not millions has very little to do with the actions of the administration. Aside from closing the borders, the administration has been sheepish about employing the Defense Production Act to supply hospitals and healthcare works around the country, and then have not put a national testing/ tracking plan in place to mitigate risk to the U.S. population.

What we're left with are mixed messages and ludicrous ideas from the president while his aides and medical experts try to clean up the mess. And from what we saw today during the interview with Dr. Birx, she is succumbing to the professional challenge of staying outside the Trump alternative reality bubble. After doing her best to once again dodge the question of her response to the president's comment about injecting disinfectant with he was 'still digesting information,' she gave one of many elliptical answers, particularly not clearly countering the president's other suggestion of using light and ultraviolet light to combat the virus.  Andrea Mitchell called her out on this very point and also said that right now, the credibility of the medical experts are in fact on the line. When asked about whether she would recommend that states reopen, like Georgia is doing, she talked about advising governors and state officials with granular data on each county, in effect a none answer. At present, Dr. Birx is completely cowed by the president.

The headline that Mr. Todd gleaned from the interview is that we will not be able to dramatically increase testing without a break through moment. That breakthrough moment has to come from what Dr. Michael Osterholm called the 'wild west' of testing. After the CDC dropped the ball on developing a test, the FDA opened it to the market so many of the test being developed are inaccurate. As Dr. Osterholm explained, the testing is a disaster because of this and it is preventing large-scale capability, saying that we have 'failed to meet the moment.'

Also, Mr. Todd asked Ms. Mitchell to weight in on the politics of it all on the part of the administration, but we'll say this: everything thought and hence answer the president has is through the political lens as opposed to a lens of governing, which he has never had interest in doing. Politics also played a part in Georgia's reopening as Stacey Abrams explained. Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA) is reopening his government, she said, because he is following the president's 'liberate' tweet campaign to the states. Vice President Mike Pence is also playing politics when he said that by Memorial Day (end of May) the coronavirus will be largely behind us. All three of these men, Ms. Abrams explained, are doing a disservice to the country with their words and actions, or inaction as the case may be.


Panel: Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Dr. Vin Gupta, University of Washington Medical Center; Stephanie Ruhle, NBC News

Sunday, April 12, 2020

4.12.20: The Metrics Are in the President's Mind

The flattening the curve in the fight against Covid-19 is... a good sign not so much as good news  because of the 20,473 recorded deaths in the United States as of this writing.

The Trump administration, according to reporting from NBC's Kristen Welker, is planning on opening the economy back up May 1, as opposed to what FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said that they are looking at that date. Chuck Todd posed the question on whether opening up the economy will brake along red/blue lines, which went unanswered. Well the answer is 'yes, it will,' because there never has been a strong federal coordinated response to combating the virus, biggest case in point is the lack of nation-wide testing - less than 1 percent of the United States population.


It was good to hear that Dr. Hahn say that he's felt no political pressure and the FDA's actions reflect as such, but then again he explained that he was only confirmed in December and that he hadn't been through any pandemic exercises. This speaks to the deeper problem of gutting the federal government and leaving key positions empty or in 'acting' status that has plagued the Trump presidency.



Without national testing capacity in absence of a vaccine the economy will not fully recover anytime soon. You shouldn't hold your breath for a May 1st date, especially if the data is showing surges in outbreaks in other cities across the country. We remain on the virus's timeline.

As for the president, the most important metrics are in his mind when it comes to the decision. What could go wrong with that? Dr. Fauci said that the decision would be made collectively only to be overwritten by the president who said he alone would make the decision. As for the daily press conferences, they have ceased being relevant and certainly do not help the president's cause in looking like he's in charge. The majority of Americans have written off Mr. Trump's leadership during the pandemic and are looking to their state governors.

As the panel discussed, in lieu of not being able to be out at rallies, the president is using the press conferences as 'infomercials' citing Jon Meacham. However, by the end of each the product hasn't grown in appeal, quite the opposite.

All the blame Mr. Trump dishes out only serves as excuses at this point, yet still with the object of keeping his base focused on others such as the World Health Organization. The president attacked the WHO this week for being too China-centric, to which Dr. David Nabarro explained that his organization doesn't have the power to inspect and can only work with the data they receive from governments.

Continually planting seeds, the president also decried mail-in voting saying untruthfully that it's prone to fraud - start baking it in now that because of the potential need for mail-in voting the result will be illegitimate. So more significant than Bernie Sanders dropping out of the race was the Wisconsin primary example this week. Instead of 180 polling places for the city of Milwaukee, only 5 were open while endangering public health. The Democratic governor wanted to postpone it but the state's conservative Supreme Court overturned the decision, essentially sanctioning a suppression of the vote.

How it played out was instructive for November as Jon Meacham explained, but if Bernie Sanders doesn't give a full-throated endorsement with action to back to Joe Biden his supporters will stay home or vote third party or disastrously vote for President Trump. As Yamiche Alcindor explained, Joe Biden is expected to move to the left however moderately as are reflected in Mr. Biden's Medicare at 60 and forgiveness as some student loan debt. So Mr. Biden will do his part, but Mr. Sanders who surely understands the consequences has to make sure his supporters also understand, thoroughly so.

In the meantime, where ever you are, please stay safe and healthy.


Panel: Kristen Welker, NBC News; Yamiche Alcindor, PBS; Lanhee Chen, Stanford University; Jon Meacham, presidential historian




Sunday, April 05, 2020

4.5.20: Donald Trump Has Ripped Up the Social Contract

"Meet The Press" was preempted half way through the program so we didn't get the full panel discussion but that in no way means that we will not have things to say about what, in particular, fmr. governor Pat McCrory (R-NC) said with regard to the pandemic response.

To start, the continuing conversation about what the states should be doing versus what the federal government response should be is a distressing one to say the least. This is a national crisis and requires a federal response. Hard stop. However, the president insists that the federal government is only a backstop for individual state responses to the pandemic. If we had a genuine leader in the White House, this wouldn't even be a discussion. The president refuses to take the lead because he doesn't want to take any responsibility. A real leader would take full responsibility, but Mr. Trump has shown that the phrase coined by President Truman that "The buck stops here," doesn't apply to him. Feckless. Indifferent. Irresponsible.

And Republicans are cowed by this man that they refuse to speak up and or just follow him blindly through this disaster. The first case in point is the aforementioned Mr. McCrory who said that he objects to the blame game and cited the example of Pearl Harbor where the public didn't blame President Roosevelt after it happened. That may be true, but Roosevelt didn't run away from responsibility to lead the nation through that time of adversity, like President Trump is doing now. Mr. Crory's comparison and argument are a joke.

Governor Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) for his part has not issued a state-wide stay-at-home order, but said that his state is following all the recommendations from the CDC and doing more than that. But what exactly is that if he hasn't issued that order? It's disingenuous at best and furthermore he is putting the citizens of his state and other states at risk. He explained that Arkansas confirmed an order for masks, but then was outbid by another state, explaining that they are competing with others for supplies. That simply shouldn't be the case and did not call for a national response. More irresponsible leadership.

Conversely, Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA) acted quickly and early with a state-wide order and the state has subsequently flattened the curve. He also explained that the state is not 'out of the woods' yet, but what does it matter if all states aren't following a national protocol? The virus doesn't recognize borders so in a way, what is, or in this case is not, happening in Arkansas is also happening in Washington. Mr. Hutchinson countered Mr. Inslee with a cheap shot that despite Washington's state-at-home order, citizens of Washington could still buy marijuana, a pointless comment. If the Arkansas governor finds that objectionable then he should close all the liquor stores and beer distributors in his state.

Are we blaming President Trump for the spread of the pandemic, no. However, his refusal or inability to take up the leadership mantle has made a dire, tragic crisis worse. As for his administration's part, the president had Sr. Advisor Jared Kushner give one of the briefings this week resulting in people questioning who exactly in the White House is running the pandemic response. And whether or not Mr. Kushner misspoke, to say that the national stockpile is 'ours' and not for the states is a gross abdication of the federal government responsibility to its citizenry so to even think for a moment that such a statement makes a bit of sense is ludicrous.

Unlike the Trump Administration, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte stated that public health comes first and foremost; that political decisions must be based on scientific evidence; and that it is the responsibility of government to maintain the social contract with its people. He said that he understands the great sacrifice of his people, but that his government will act to the best of their knowledge and with the help WHO he believes that his country is on the right path.

If only the Trump Administration had such clear thinking. More importantly, if Donald Trump himself had an ounce of empathy for the suffering and sacrifice of the American people, we would be able to rally to his side. However, like all the ones he reneged on during his business career, Mr. Trump has dismissed and ripped up the social contract between his administration and the American people.


Panel: Kasie Hunt, NBC; Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Pat McCrory, fmr. gov. of North Carolina.