Sunday, March 29, 2020

3.29.20: The Virus Sets the Timeline

First and foremost, before making any comments stemming from today's "Meet The Press" we sincerely hope that you and you're family is staying safe and healthy in this time of worldwide crisis.

Nothing could be more true that American healthcare workers are overworked, overrun and overwhelmed. As Dr. Deborah Birx succinctly stated, there is no metro area in the United States that is going to be spared by this virus. There still seems to be debate on what the states should be doing versus what the federal government should take responsibility for during this crisis, but regardless it is imperative that the president needs to be honest with the American people and consistent in his messaging.

When Chuck Todd asked the panel whether the president should step up more or step back, conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt said that the president should lean into the crisis and stay out front whereas The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson should step back because he is saying things that are counterproductive making him more and more irrelevant. In a way, both are right. The president should be the one to lean in with leadership and empathy, but Mr. Trump with his 'thinking out loud' approach is sending mixed messages and doling out attacks on governors that seem petty. Given that, the president needs to step back and let the scientists and doctors lead the strategy.

There have been moments where the president has captured the right tone and has said the right things, but there has been no consistency in his statements. An example of this came just yesterday when the president said that he was considering a full quarantine of the New York City metro area, to which New York governor Andrew Cuomo responded that that would be in essence like declaring war on the states. Also, what the president needs to realize but never has is that in this time of crisis he is the president for all Americans, Democrats and Republicans alike so attacking governors shows a pettiness that is detrimental to the nation. NBC's Carol Lee posed that the president has to decide whether he wants to be a wartime president or Donald Trump, which implies that he can not be both.

As to being a wartime president, Mr. Trump did enact the Defense Protection Act to compel General Motors to start manufacturing ventilators, an action that should have been taken at least a month ago. Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden said that he would have taken this step in the production of personal protective equipment (PPE) - masks, gowns, face shields. He also said that the Congress should be preparing for the next round of funding because the current aid package may not be enough. All this speaks to the administration's slow response and its original approach of downplaying the danger. When the president says that no one could have seen this coming, it is simply not true because the administration back in 2017 cut from the security council pandemic response, drilled on this in 2019 and ignored warnings from the security council in January and February of this year. Carol Lee also explained that there is tension between the CDC and FEMA on who should take control of what. If Donald Trump wants to indeed be a wartime president, he needs to step up because the administration as it stands right now is losing this war.

In terms of the presumptive Democratic nominee and the president the polls have tightened as Mr. Trump is seeing his highest approval ratings of his presidency at 48 percent. Commentators are making this seem as though the president is operating from a position of strength when in actuality he is still underwater in terms of job approval. Mr. Hewitt said that we shouldn't pay attention to the polls at this time and he's right, but for the wrong reasons because he is presuming that they will improve in the president's favor come November, which isn't likely.

This is a flawed timeline for the president, just as the other arbitrary timelines the president has set like his administration's 15-day plan to slow the spread of the virus, which is up on Tuesday. This is unrealistic just as seeing packed churches on Easter (April 12). As Dr. Fauci has said, the administration can not set the timeline for reopening the country, the virus sets the timeline.


Panel: Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Carol Lee; NBC News; Eugene Robinson, The Washington Post; Hugh Hewitt, Salem Radio Network



Sunday, March 22, 2020

3.22.20: America Shuts Down and the President Won't Shut Up

The Trump Administration saw this coming...

Let that sink in as more and more Americans are being ordered to stay at home and practice social distancing, there is still a shortage of testing, N95 masks, ventilators and hospital beds. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are going through the roof.

For the first few months, the president downplayed the threat that the virus posed and it has only been in the last few days that the president has changed his tone for the better. As Kristen Welker explained, the president wants to be out front but there have been mixed results. Thenews media distills these press conferences to sort out what the facts are, mostly coming from Dr. Anthony Fauci, and what the president is saying, which has just made the response from the government more muddled and confusing. The president has just made things worse so as America shuts down, the president should just shut up.

The president has invoked the Defense Protection Act, which gives the president the authority to order private companies to switch in this case to the production of much needed medical equipment, however, Mr. Trump has not enacted the law so states are in bidding wars for masks, ventilators and hospital gowns. The military, as New York City Mayor, Bill de Blasio said, has vast medical capacity in crisis areas and is second to none in terms of logistics. This was needed a month ago but has yet to materialize.

Governor Larry Hogan's (R-MD) statement saying that we are still behind the curve is a gross understatement about the federal government's response, which frankly, has been awful. It's understandable that Governor Hogan's statements were measured as he has to work directly with the Administration. However, Mayor Blasio pleaded that his city and the states needed help now or more people would die. But because the federal government is slow in mobilizing, it is up to the states to act, which Mr. Hogan said was happening in conjunction with the federal action.

As David French explained, the states at this moment are acting with the maximum power they can muster, however, states acting individually is not going to get us through this crisis unless the federal government steps up. The good news is that FEMA is now running point for the federal response but that the FEMA Administrator, Peter Gaynor, gave a tepid answer when it came to the prevention of hoarding supplies, which stuck out as a concern for former HHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, who said if he were still in his role, he would call up the national guard with a Title 32 status that would have the states control the guard but the federal government would shoulder the burden of the cost, along with the Army Corps of Engineers. Mr. Gaynor did say that good things are happening, shipments of masks and supplies, and that is good. However, we're still playing a waiting game for all the supplies and mobilizations to be up to adequate production and speed.

Presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin said in times of national crisis we need to trust the word of the president and for the federal government to take systematic action. However, in reading that you can see the problem. That's not the president that we have. We're unable to trust the word of this president because of all his false statements on a plethora of topics and because the administration lacks cohesion and order, systematic action is readily coming through.

We're not saying that the Trump Administration is to blame, but Americans rely on the federal government to combat the problems and crises that individuals cannot solves themselves. Mr. Trump has made a signature of his presidency to disparage the 'deep state' but the deep state is the federal bureaucracy that's in place for just these situations.

So when Chuck Todd asks, how the president's response has been during this crisis, the first one of his presidency that isn't self-made, it hasn't been difficult to predict how the president would handle it.

The president is simply not up to the task, and this lack of leadership and experience and empathy is a compounding circumstance that has made overcoming the challenge of this crisis all the more difficult.


Panel: Kristen Welker, NBC; Doris Kearns Goodwin, presidential historian; Jeh Johnson, fmr. HHS Secretary; David French, Time Magazine




Sunday, March 08, 2020

3.8.20: Coronavirus Scaring Voters Straight, in the Face of Anti-Leadership

On the one hand, you can be glad that "Meet The Press" had Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Disease, deliver real answers on what to do and expect regarding the spread of the Coronavirus. On the other, none of it was particularly good.

He explained that as they get a better sense of the virus, what they're seeing is not good. The two strategies at this point are mitigation and containment, the latter of which doesn't seem to be working so well. Candidly, he said that if you're elderly with an underlying condition, you may want to think twice about getting on a plane or long contained travel such as cruise ship, of course.

Dr. Fauci did say that the virus may just burn itself, like SARS, but right now there is no determining that so his main concern is community spread because a vaccine is a way off and we're not ready for survey testing or even doctor to patient testing,which is being ramped up.

And we need to ramp things up...

Last Sunday

Today

In the meantime, Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) has declared a state of emergency in his state to coordinate all the state agencies and get more ready access to funds through the Maryland Legislature if necessary.

Governor Hogan also explained that a concern for all the states' governors is the ramping up effort, but that Vice-president Pence has been doing a good job of coordinating and getting everyone on the same page. Sure that's good, but it's in spite of the president's stupid and unhelpful statements. Mr. Hogan said that politics should be left out of it and that the president's statements on the Coronavirus aren't what he would say or what he would have like the president to say, but the rest of the team is doing a good job.

The New York Times, Helene Cooper said that the world isn't looking to Trump to lead on this, but what we've come to expect is that the president can't even do it here at home.  Hallie Jackson there is this separation - him from everyone else, to which Chuck Todd responded that we do it naturally now. We have to rely on government agencies doing their best despite Mr. Trump's anti-leadership.

With the stock market losing 10 percent of its value in the last two weeks, the administration, particularly the president, faces a real challenge and questions about its leadership. This is what is scaring voters straight... Straight to Joe Biden.

Voters are deciding enough of the chaos, they want a steady hand leading the country - some calm. This Trump-chaos fatigue puts a drag on Senator Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign because at this time, people don't want revolution as Mr. Sanders terms his movement. In recent interviews, including today's Mr. Sanders has been more subdued because he did not turn out the vote on Super Tuesday. Mr. Sanders has proved like all before that relying on an overwhelming youth vote, especially in a primary, is wishful and flawed thinking.

Mr. Sanders also said that he is fighting both the corporate establishment and the party establishment on his path to the nomination. He explained that the party establishment put pressure on Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out, essentially 'falling in line.' The bitter part that he left out is that all those votes went to Mr. Biden.

This leads us to where Senator Warren's supporters will go now that she has withdrawn from the race, a race that as the panel discussed, still is significantly sexist. If Joe Biden wins the nomination, it's difficult no seeing him pick a woman as his vice-presidential running mate. It's long long overdue.


Panel: Matt Bai, The Washington Post; Hallie Jackson, NBC, Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Al Cardenas, Republican Strategist


A couple more things...
Matt Bai was so right to hammer home the point that the president goes on and on about the 'deep state.' But as Mr. Bai pointed out, this is the government, the civil servants that we rely on to get things done and to keep the population safe. He thinks there is a looming political cost for this. Maybe not directly, but it speaks to the larger more existential problem of trust, which wouldn't be a problem if the president didn't constantly bash the government that he leads.

SxSW in Austin, TX was cancelled this year, the first time in 35 years. That's an economic hit to the tune of $350 million for the city. Stay tuned for even more big hits.


Sunday, March 01, 2020

3.1.20: South Carolina was Telling while the President was Unable To on Anything

Vice President Joe Biden made his statement yesterday in South Carolina emphatically with a 28 point gap between him and Bernie Sanders who finished second with 20 percent of the vote. It was the type of resounding victory that a candidate not named Bernie Sanders needed. Mr. Biden garnered 48 percent of the vote winning every county in the state. The question that the panel batted around was whether of not South Carolina was an outlier in the race given Senator Sanders' momentum so far.

As a matter of fact, South Carolina is indicative of where Democratic voters are, seeking a more moderate candidate to face Mr. Trump in the general election however, given what's on the horizon - Super Tuesday with Mike Bloomberg on the ballot - it's difficult to see Mr. Biden making it a two person race. For Joe Biden, he need to stay close to Sanders in the delegate count come the results of the primaries on Tuesday and then hope that other moderates (e.g. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar) withdrawal from the race. If that happens then Mr. Biden will make it a two person race and will be at advantage to take the nomination. The moderate vote is great than that of Mr. Sanders but it's being split, which is working to his advantage.

Kristen Welker summed up the Pete Buttigieg interview today saying that Mr. Buttigieg could not name one state in which he sees a victory. That should tell you everything you need to know about where Mr. Buttigieg's campaign is headed, as is Ms. Klobuchar's. As for Elizabeth Warren, she is another pretender for the nomination, and as we've said in the column previously, she would not make a good president.

Another aspect of the Democratic primary that flummoxed the panel was how Latino voters are going to Bernie Sanders and the African-American voters are supporting Joe Biden. Usually these two voting blocks are on the same page, but not this time around. However, it's explainable in as much as given that the Culinary Union in Nevada did not endorse a candidate, it gave the Latino voting block in the state no guidance. The Latino voting block has a familiarity with leftist politics in countries they've emigrated from so Bernie Sanders isn't such a wild idea. However, African-Americans are more pragmatic and conservative, perhaps thoughtful as well, about who they vote for.

Wednesday will supply plenty of clarity as to where we are in the Democratic primary, but as it is looking right now, it's Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Even though, Mr. Biden has a better chance in against Mr. Trump in the general, there is little doubt that either Mr. Biden or Mr. Sanders would be handling the Coronavirus threat much better than the current administration, who didn't have its priorities straight when considering public health and safety. Prior to the crisis, the Trump administration had cut significant funding from the CDC and EPA, the very two agencies that are seeing their roles becoming more and more significant in terms of national security.

Having Vice President Mike Pence as the point man to combat the potential outbreak is only remotely comforting given the fact the president is certainly not up to the task. President Trump has created a situation in which he can not level with the American people on anything. Now, we're really seeing the danger in this. Mr. Trump has told so many falsehoods in his 3 1/2 years as president but has messaged that his administration has been 'perfect' that no one can count on what the president says. ]

Because of this lack of trust in the president's statements, you see things like the stock market lose 12 percent of its value in a week because of uncertainty, in part created by Mr. Trump. Friday night he told a rally crowd that the Coronavirus was a Democratic hoax, but gave his usual non-walk-back walk back, 'that's not what I said,' at a Saturday during a press conference and then tells the news media told speak responsibly.

And doesn't say a lot of the true character of Mr. Trump that he appointed his Vice President to head up the effort. During the interview, Mr. Pence repeatedly referenced the president's 'good judgement' when it came to early measures and adding that the administration would bring to bear the full resources of the federal government to combat this virus. The president now has his fall guy if things go south, but it's clear that Mr. Trump knows himself that he's not up to the task. His handling of it has not reassured the public or more importantly to the president the market. A Washington Post report explains that it went to the VP's office because of lack of leadership and structure at the White House.

The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan said that the president has been very lucky in terms of not having to had to face any real crises during his presidency. However, this one is certainly demonstrates a 'competency crisis' as Eddie Glaude Jr. described it. Well, the potential of a worldwide viral outbreak is a crisis so in terms of the United States, you have to go with the part of the administration that can actually administer instructions and resources and that is the Vice President's office... Because the White House doesn't have its shit together, to indulge Trumpian vernacular. Going back to the 'full federal resources,' the department that we need the most right now have been cut so heavily by this administration with other key positions unfilled, it's little consolation from the vice-president.


Panel: Kristen Welker, NBC; Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal; Robert Gibbs, fmr. White House Spokesperson in the Obama Administration; Eddie Glaude Jr., Princeton University