Sunday, January 12, 2020

1.12.20: A Reckless or Bold Decision?

The question that framed the interviews and the panel discussion was whether the president's decision to kill Iranian Maj. General Qassem Soleimani  was reckless or bold. From what we know, it was really both. It was bold because of the options that were presented to the president, he chose the boldest move. However, it was also reckless because he didn't have a strategy or forethought as to what would happen after it.

And then there are the shifting explanations for the administration's timing of the strike and the fact that senior congressional officials were not notified prior to the operation, which speaks to the point that Senator Michael Bennett (D-CO) made that the president and his administration hold both the American people and Congress in contempt. The administration seems to feel that they do not owe any explanation for their actions to anyone. As an American, you demand an honest accounting of actions such as this done in your name. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) pointed out the inconsistency of saying that the threat was imminent but they couldn't identify when or where exactly.

In last week's column, we stated indicated reticence regarding the cynical motivation that by executing this strike against Soleimani that it would distract from impeachment. However, there was a point touched on that raises the proverbial eyebrow when it was pointed out that the president said that fmr. National Security Advisor John Bolton can not testify before the Senate because he was involved with administration discussions on Iran.

Speaking of the National Security Advisor, during the interview with the current NSA Robert O'Brien, he stated, twice, that the intelligence on threats to embassies was 'exquisite.' Using a term such as that immediately raises a red flag given that it connotes that there was 100% certainty in the information. Using Senator Paul's phrase, it's hard to square that circle. First, never is there 100% certainty in intelligence, hardly enough to make it exquisite. Secondly, the president has repeatedly said that the U.S. intelligence community is the 'deep state' and is not to be trusted so the American people need to trust that he trusts now? NPR's Steve Inskeep explained that when the president says he believes there was an imminent threat to American embassies, you can not fact check a belief. Extrapolating that out, it means that if you do not believe what the president does, you're labeled by the president as crooked or even treasonous.

With that said, Time magazine columnist and founder of 'The Dispatch' David French (notably no longer with the National Review) explained that all of these vague explanations were unnecessary. Mr. French explained that Soleimani was an enemy combatant in a theater of war and was therefore fair game and a lawful target. He explained that the administration could have united the country but instead just decided on an 'own the libs' strategy. One shouldn't be surprised if the administration now throws that explanation into the stew. Unfortunately, the president has never once in his three years in office decided to try to be the president for all Americans.

All of this speaks to two larger points. The first of which is war powers debate and Congress taking back it's authority to grant the administration use of military force, as Senator Paul was talking about. You would have to agree that it is a wise idea and it wouldn't be that controversial for bipartisan support. However, given the state of our politics, the House's vote this week on such a measure didn't garner any bipartisan support. It's become a reflexive notion to not support anything other side of the aisle is for, at least in the House. On top of this, Congress has ceded war powers to the executive branch for so long through Democratic and Republican administrations alike that it will take an extraordinary circumstance for them to regain control of this issue.

Then there is the administration's overall foreign policy strategy and the fact that, sadly, there doesn't really seem to be one. Regarding Iran, it's clear that the administration didn't have an answer for the what if, had the regime decided for direct military confrontation, e.g. war. One of the end results of these recent actions is that NATO allies have no faith in what the United States is doing. And whether it be North Korea, a one-sided love affair gone bad; or a resurgent Russia and its de facto cyberwar; or China and the economic cold war there don't seem to be many tangible results beneficial to Americans.


Panel: Andrea Mitchell, NBC; David French, Time Columnist; Yamiche Alcindor, PBS News Hour;
Steve Inskeep, NPR



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