Sunday, December 02, 2018

12.2.18: Leverage and Russia - How Time's Have Changed

There's much to be said of George H.W. Bush, 41st president of the United States, but what should stick out in people's memories and in history is his steady stewardship of world-changing events, namely the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the fall of the Berlin Wall. This is not to mention the restraint President Bush showed during the first Gulf War when his administration drove Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, but did not march on Baghdad - the temptation of hubris that his son as the 43rd president gave into.

However, the Bush 43 Administration had leverage over Russia and the capacity to dictate the terms when it came to geopolitical relations and ensured that in the midst of a falling empire, violent conflict did not breakout all of eastern Europe. It was the experience of having been a pilot in WWII, a two-term Congressman, the UN Ambassador, Ambassador to China, Head of the CIA and Vice President that gave George H.W. Bush to see through the global changes with a steady hand. As his former Secretary of Defense, Dick Cheney, said on today's program, defense came first for Mr. Bush and peace through strength was an operating principal.

James Baker, Mr. Bush's friend of over 60 years, said that he was the most success one-term president in United States history and perhaps our greatest foreign policy president. An outstanding case can be made for the latter given the above-mentioned challenges, but Mr. Baker also mentioned the ending of wars in Central America and building relations with China despite the Tiananmen Square crackdown on democracy. In this latter instance knowing that military action would be catastrophic, Mr. Bush instead employed harsh sanctions on China.

It's in domestic policy where Mr. Bush had trouble, famously breaking his pledge not to raise taxes, cited on today's "Meet The Press."

"Read my lips..."



Of course, Congressman Newt Gingrich (R-GA) lead the revolt against Mr. Bush in 1992 for this transgression, which cost Mr. Bush a second term. Mr. Gingrich, one of the architect's of today's zero-sum politics would not allow this correct compromise, as Andrea Mitchell described it, to go unpunished. In hindsight, it was the fact that Mr. Bush raised taxes. In fact, President Reagan after the massive tax restructuring in the 1980's, raised taxes realizing that he had gone too far. However, for Mr. Bush, it was the reversal of such a dramatic pledge. It didn't help that on the domestic front, Mr. Bush had one of the most inconsequential Vice Presidents in history, Dan Quayle. (Why haven't we heard from him?)

On foreign policy, there's little doubt that George H.W. Bush was a great president, and he used the new leverage that he had over the former Soviet Union to strike the 1991 START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) - another major accomplishment.

This brings us to leverage lost... Or leverage switched. Leverage is what Vladimir Putin has seemingly had over President Donald Trump. (Note that Mr. Putin also views the collapse of the Soviet Union that greatest tragedy in Russia's history, and is working to rebuild the empire as we speak.)

This week Michael Cohen, the president's former personal attorney and fixer, admitted that he had lied to Congress and that discussions with the Kremlin about Trump Tower Moscow had continued well into the summer of 2016 at a time when candidate Donald Trump was practically shouting that he had no business deals or discussions with Russia. As Chuck Todd outlined, Mr. Cohen was lying and the president knew that he was lying, which created Kremlin leverage over Mr. Trump. Mr. Todd also reported that the Kremlin has confirmed Mr. Cohen sequence of events and has presented the emails to prove it.

Even conservative writer David French, cited on today's program, wrote that the president had an enormous conflict of interest in running for president of the United States while seeking a business deal with the Kremlin. Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) who will become the chair of the Judiciary Committee stated that the president's days of lying without accountability are coming to an end. Typically, but still unfortunate, Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) said that everyone knew that the president had international business dealings, but brushed aside any questions of concern about the president's lying. He answered with a ridiculous, "There were so many things going on in 2016..." And inexcusably, for North Carolina governor Pat McCrory called this leverage that the Kremlin had over now President Trump 'grassy knoll issues,' referring to the conspiracy theory of the Kennedy assassination. Both men are simply denying reality, and one can't help but think that if the shoe were on the Democratic foot that they would both be calling for impeachment, simply on the optics of all this.

With all this said, Andrea Mitchell did say that doing this kind of business is not illegal, but the fact remains that the American public while considering who to vote for did not know of these business dealings.

Mr. McCrory said that this leverage is a theory. Like the theory of the alternative universe that he lives in?  This real leverage that the Kremlin had over Mr. Trump begs the question of another theory. What else do they have on the man?


Panel: Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Heather McGhee, Senior Fellow at DEMOS; Dan Balz, The Washington Post; Pat McCrory, fmr. governor of North Carolina


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