Given Donald Trump's win in 2016, predictions for this election cycle are tepid at best. No one wants to go too far out on a limb, as was the case in this special election edition of "Meet The Press." This was summed up by Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher admitting that he doesn't trust the polls because of what happened in 2016 and due to the extraordinary turnout in early voting.
With that in mind there were a few things that stood out from today's interviews that will end up being significant in who controls the House and Senate after the polls close on Tuesday. First, Senator Chris Van Hollen said that Democrats can not go 0 for 4 in the Senate races of Missouri, Tennessee, North Dakota and Texas. That's significant because that could very well be the case.
To break down what we've seen so far, accounting for high turnout for both parties, Marsha Blackburn will take the seat over Phil Bredesen in Tennessee because Mr. Bredesen who should be leading has run a tentative campaign having had to modulate between Republican and Democratic held positions too much where Ms. Blackburn can simply stay on the hard right. In North Dakota, Heidi Heitcamp can still win if she gets the voter turnout. To contradict what Hugh Hewitt said about Brett Kavanaugh being a factor in Senate races, that's not going to be the deciding factor in North Dakota. In Missouri, the Kavanaugh factor could play a part, but ultimately again, not a big part. Let's face it, the man is on the Supreme Court so Republicans got what they wanted. Senate Democrats on the Judiciary Committee did not act inappropriately in the joint hearings with Dr. Blasey-Ford and Judge Kavanaugh. If you watched those hearings the accusatory voices where those of Republicans (e.g. Senator Lindsey Graham) and Mr. Kavanaugh himself who acted inappropriately when Democrats asked him questions. And though this column has respect for Tom Brokaw, his anecdote that suburban women who have sons are turning back to the Republican party because of Kavanaugh doesn't really float. At this point in this day and age, if those suburban mothers haven't talked to their sons about sexual assault, it reflects poorly on them. With that said, Claire McCaskill can still pull out the race, but as with all her races it will be close.
That's leaves us with Texas, which conventional wisdom would dictate that Ted Cruz will prevail but who knows... Mr. O'Rourke has certainly run the better campaign but that may not be enough though he is the better face for the future of Texas. Also, even though Mr. Cruz may still hold on, he certainly doesn't deserve to win. Donald Trump disparaged his wife and said that his father took part in JFK's assassination yet Mr. Cruz still in the end kissed his ass, frankly. That's simply not Texas, but...
As for governor's races, most of the attention has rightly focused on Georgia and Florida, to which President Trump has said that neither Democratic candidate is qualified to hold office - this coming from a man with no political or governmental administrative experience. In fact, the two Democratic candidates in those respective races, Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Andrew Gillum in Florida are the most qualified. In Florida, Ron DeSantis was a congressman and has no experience running a municipality whereas Mr. Gillum is the mayor of the state's capital, Tallahassee. In Georgia, as Ms. Abrams outlined in her interview today, she is clearly the most qualified having worked across the aisle in Georgia's state legislature and as an administrator. Despite the race being a toss-up due to the fact that the state leans Republican and her opponent Secretary of State Brian Kemp's prior attempts to suppress the vote, Ms. Abrams is well positioned. Additionally, Mr. Kemp should hope that if he wins it's with a 50% majority because if not the race goes to a run-off which will only put a brighter spotlight on the race - something that will not be to his benefit.
Then there are the House races, which by all prognosticating favor the Democrats. No where is Donald Trump more on the ballot than Houses races are concerned and control of the House will most certainly reflect the country's assessment of Mr. Trump's job performance in his first two years in office. The majority of Americans do not subscribe to the fear and loathing that Mr. Trump has brought to the office of the presidency. The continual race-baiting, fear, lying and misogyny will catch up to him and Tuesday could be the day where the American people speak in opposition to all of it. Or at least that's the message that should be sent. Kasie Hunt said that suburb women should not be underestimated in this regard as to their power to dictate the outcome of these midterms and that is truly the case. Instead of how Mr. Brokaw outlined it, suburb women will be the loudest voice in rebuking the president's behavior in office.
Something Tom Brokaw did say should also resonate with Americans and that is that we are slaughtering our own citizens with greater frequency. Mr. Trump is incapable of speaking to this in an heart-felt way and Americans know it. His callousness has been grossly on display especially when he says that the 'bomb' stuff and the mass murder of Jewish Americans in Pittsburgh has slowly the momentum for Republicans in the midterms.
In addition, the trajectory of healthcare is a bigger factor and given the sustained conversation about it since the passage of the Affordable Care Act it is foremost in voters minds. The bottom line is that with all the votes taken up by Republicans to repeal the ACA in full, which includes protections for pre-existing conditions, the electorate is not confident that those will be maintained. And as stated before in this column, if there are maintained by Republicans premiums will essentially go up where millions will be priced out of the market.
Mr. Trump has refused to or is in capable of leading American as one nation so only divided government can put the prop checks in place and that means a Democratically controlled House, which looks likely - said with extremely cautious optimism.
If that's not the outcome, American democracy will take a turn for the worse.
Panel: Kasie Hunt, NBC News; Savannah Guthrie, "The Today Show;" Cornell Belcher, Democratic Strategist; Hugh Hewitt, Salem Radio Network; Tom Brokaw, NBC News
One more thing...
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!
(It's your civic duty.)
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