Sunday, October 21, 2018

10.21.18: What's Really at Stake in These Midterms

Let's start off on a good note.

It was pleasantly refreshing to hear Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) agree that Saudi Arabia's explanation on what to Washington Post columnist Jamal Kashoggi, that it was just not credible that a 59 year-old journalist got into a brawl with 15 Saudi security agents that resulted in his death.

While understandably Mr. Tillis was a bit more measured in his comments because of common party affiliation with the president, he did state that it looks like Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was involved in the decision to kill Mr. Khashoggi and that the Saudis need to be held accountable. More and more, it seems as though senators of both parties hold a position that is in opposition to the president.

Senator Durbin stated that the United States should immediately expel the Saudi ambassador until a full investigation has been conducted, the facts come to light and the Saudis are held accountable. Senators of both parties would agree with this action, however, the president has been dragging his feet on coming out on the side of the U.S. intelligence service. It begs the question of why, which can be easily answered.

President Trump's and, for that matter, Jared Kushner's financial ties to the Saudis is compromising the administration's ability to make decisions that represent American values. That's saying it politely. In other words, the president is violating the Constitution of the United States, specifically the emoluments clause, by accepting Saudi money to his businesses. Obviously, the Mr. Trump doesn't want to personally upset the Saudi government or it will divest from his businesses. Once again, Mr. Trump is compromised in his decision making because he is putting personal profit over the interests of the United States. Yes, it's that clear and simple.

What's not clear and simple is predicting the upcoming midterm elections. As Christian Broadcast Network News' David Brody said, the biggest issue on the table is anger, and which side - Republican or Democrat - has more of it. The panel all agreed that there needs to be someone to bring people together to calm the situation, and though Peggy Noonan disagreed with Chuck Todd that person should be the president, it should be. However, the difference with Donald Trump and every other president that has proceeded him is that he has no aspiration to be the president for all Americans. He'll never let up on pitting individuals against one another. Even if the right-wing and left-wing press together called a truce along with politicians of all stripes, it's the president that truly wields the influence when trying to bring people together. Mr. Trump has no interest whatsoever in that.

Both sides are fired up, there is no doubt and what we're going to see if the next 16 days before the vote is that constituents are going to come home to their usual respective parties, with one big exception - women. Women will decide these primaries, specifically suburban women and women of color, as pointed out by Eugene Robinson. Millennial turnout will once again be low and for the most part, minority turnout (with the exception of black women) will also be lackluster.

 Senator Tillis said that it can be rationalized that the huge tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, predominantly, will pay for themselves, but Republicans are not running on tax cuts, because let's face it, the game is up and the populace isn't buying it anymore. The warning to Republicans, as Peggy Noonan explained, is that in a time where there haven't been any new wars and with the economy doing well, the president can not get his approval rating over 50 percent. Republicans have been supplying the argument that the president is getting results despite the deeply divisive nature of how he's going about it. However, given Ms. Noonan's point, the president's words do matter greatly.

Healthcare has become a central issue for the Democrats as that what most of the electorate, justifiably so, is concerned about. Republicans are saying that they want to repeal the Affordable Care Act but keep protections for preexisting conditions. As this column pointed out last week, there will be no way to pay for it, and people with preexisting conditions will be essentially priced out of the market. Democrats, this time around, are now embracing the ACA as they should have been doing all along. It's ok to say that it's not perfect and fixes are needed, but at the same time the basis tenets of the bill are beneficial to ordinary people.

Sticking with conventional wisdom, the Senate will most likely stay in Republican control. However, if the House doesn't flip to Democratic control, here's what will happen: Mitch McConnell as he stated this week will start the 'need' to get the federal budget under control. The federal budget has been blown up with an unnecessary Republican tax cut. So how does Mr. McConnell propose to control spending? He's stated that Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security be 'reformed.' In other words, those programs need to be cut.

Those programs are all tied to healthcare and that's really the main stake in this midterm election.


Panel: Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal; Katy Tur, MSNBC; Eugene Robinson, The Washington Post; David Brody, Christian Broadcast Network News


One more thing...
Scaramucci has he was concerned about what happen with Jamal Khashoggi (he didn't mention him by name) and the Saudi government, but that he still sending a representative from his financial firm, Skybridge Capital, to Saudi Arabia for the financial conference. In other words, the only thing he cares about is money. This guy is so disingenuous that there is really no reason to ever take him seriously.

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