Sunday, May 29, 2016

5.29.16: California Is An Elimination Game for Senator Sanders

Even though it's Memorial Day, "Meet The Press" was politics as usual Mr. Todd forget to ask Senator Sanders anything about this solemn holiday or ask Governor Schwarzenegger for that matter. Instead he discussed acquiescence to the respective front running candidates.  That's all there is of the news cycle now with MTP towing the line - we get it - but there could have been at least one question to Senator Sanders, a person who aspires to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, what Memorial Day means to him.

Just saying.

Senator Sanders believes he has three paths to the nomination still: 1) bringing more pledged delegates into the convention, 2) convince super-delegates who are voting against their states' results switch over, and 3) have super delegates who have pledged their support Hillary Clinton before the primary began reconsider their support (given poll results showing Sen. Sanders doing better than Sec. Clinton in the general).

Let's play politics!

It's a good chance that Sen. Sanders could win in California, which would put him on the road to achieving his first path goal of bringing more delegates to the convention, but winning is a big "if." California is everything to the Sanders campaign right now because contrary to what he said in his interview today, if he doesn't win it really is over for him. The other two paths, if you would even call them that, are practically pointless if the first path isn't a success.

Also, to base one of the paths on favorable poll numbers in a head to head match up is ridiculous. The polls now show Sanders beating Trump, but if you want Republican big money all in for Trump then Sanders is your guy. That machine has been sitting on the sidelines because of its deep distrust of Donald Trump figuring that indeed Clinton would be better for the country and their interests. As evidenced from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's (R-CA) none answer on whether he would support Donald Trump or not, most remain uncommitted. Sanders, however, would be a disaster for big money interests so every smear that you could possibly imagine will be laid to bear, of this there is little doubt. Let's see where the polls numbers would be at that point.

Senator Sanders to this point in the race has not been the target of that many direct attacks comparatively to the other candidates still in the race. Donald Trump mostly attacks Hillary Clinton who is busy defending herself from a three-pronged attack. The three fronts: from Sanders on the left, from Trump on the right, and from herself (emails) right down the middle.

Jerry Seib, The Wall Street Journal, said that it sounded as though Bernie has already started negotiating eventual support for Sec. Clinton in the general. Though he has toned down the attacks on Hillary Clinton, we don't think he hit the negotiating stage of grief just yet. If he were anywhere in the cycle, it would be in denial, but the California primary hasn't taken place yet so that's not completely accurate either. One thing is for sure, June 7th is an elimination game for Bernie Sanders - win or go home.

Panel: Neera Tanden; President for the Center of American Progress; KellyAnne Conway, Republican Strategist; Robert Costa, The Washington Post; Jerry Seib, The Wall Street Journal



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