Sunday, March 20, 2016

3.20.16: Donald Trump Is In The Race Until The End

Before we start...

Going forward you have to do your political calculus with the understanding that candidate Donald J. Trump will be in the race until the end. Either Republicans support him and award him the nomination to represent them in the general or they deny him the nomination at the convention and he most assuredly runs as a third-party candidate.

Republicans have to decide what is more important to them - winning an election at all costs or keeping your party's principles and philosophies in tact, hence 'saving it' from Donald Trump. Said candidate has one objective and that is to win the presidency. Mr. Trump wants the legitimacy of representing the Republican party in the race, not to mention their support, but it won't change his goal if they don't give it. The Atlantic's Molly Ball alluded to this ever so briefly at the end.

Now...

With that in mind, all the scenarios that senior Republican strategists Steve Schmidt (McCain campaign) and Stuart Stevens (Romney campaign) described respectively are moot. When Mr. Stevens answers that "yes, we can still stop Trump," we need clarification. Stop Trump from what exactly? Getting the nomination? Becoming the president? Mr. Stuart also explained that Mr. Trump is losing Romney voters but that is not going to be enough to swing the nomination away from Mr. Trump. It may, however, legitimize the formation of a third party.

Either way, down ticket races will be affected because if Mr. Trump is the party standard-bearer, that trouble for Republican senators up for re-election in purple states. Compounding this problem for these senators is the obstruction of President Obama's Supreme Court nominee from getting a hearing, orchestrated by Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). One understands his cause of blocking the nomination, hoping for a Republican presidential win, but the risk is huge, and here's why.

First, in today's consecutive interviews with Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. McConnell, it's clear that they have both been hypocritical in their statements about SCOTUS nominees in a president's final year in office. The fact is that this is the luck (or unluck) of the draw with life-time appointments. There are going to be those odd times where the law is inconvenient, but it should still be followed, despite what Sen. McConnell tells you about history and principle.

Getting back to Senate elections, the obstruction of the Supreme Court could cost Sen. McConnell is majority leadership because he's asking senators like Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire to not only run away from the Republican candidate Donald Trump but you're also having them run away from the establishment because of the hard line on the Supreme Court position. Not good at all if you want to hold the majority in the Senate.

With Republican establishment heads spinning around in 360-rotations, a la Linda Blaire and all the chaos, discuss about the Democratic race went under the radar this week with the exception of the topic of Sec. Clinton's speaking style, which apparently receives derisive critiques from male pundits. The only conclusion to draw is that a discussion such as this can only benefit Mrs. Clinton. If male pundits access that Hillary Clinton is shrill and doesn't 'smile enough,' women especially ones over 60 like Joy-Ann Reid outlined would understandably be upset. They would say that  in her victory speech on Tuesday, she was speaking to a big cheering crowd necessitating the need to speak more loudly. In terms of temperament, they would describe it as ' determined.' These types of criticisms  aren't levied against other candidates, but then again, who says any part of politics is fair.


Panel: Jose Diaz-Balart, NBC News; Molly Ball, The Atlantic; Joy-Ann Reed, NBC News; Robert Costa, The Washington Post


One More Thing...

President Obama in Cuba. If he doesn't speak out strongly about political prisoners and dissidents in Cuba, American democracy, human rights today, then all the criticisms of the trip and him going become valid. If he does speak about those things, it will cement Obama's legacy with something history will view in a positive light.




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