2.21.16: Hugh Hewlitt's Lost Logic and Harry's Solid For Hillary

After last night's South Carolina primary, it's clear from today's "Meet The Press" that Hugh Hewlitt's logic writ large on the Republican race has been knocked off its moorings. Mr. Hewlitt is still sticking to the line of thinking that Marco Rubio has a chance to win in Nevada and will win Florida, his home state, to which the rest of the panel all scoffed.  The go-to for Nevada politics, Jon Ralston, said that Trump would win easily in Nevada, given his financial ties. Mr. Hewlitt hasn't come to the reality that Joy-Ann Reid sharply put into focus for him which is that winning the establishment vote as Marco Rubio is doing isn't winning the nomination. That goes to someone who actually comes in first and that's Donald Trump. When Chuck Todd posed to Mr. Hewlitt that if the front runner were anyone else besides Donald Trump, the nomination would already be sewn up, to which he replied, because "This is the last war." The time between now and the March 1st super Tuesday, 14-state primary will be make or break for a 'traditional' Republican candidate.

When he commented on the Democratic race, he was no more sound. His general premise always has been the Hillary Clinton is a 'tremendously flawed' candidate. Never mind that in terms of flaws, the Republicans candidate are on the same playing field. That aside, he went on to explain that voters are sophisticated and will realize this. But who was he referring to, exactly?

Was he talking about voters in general or just Democratic voters as they relate to Hillary Clinton's campaign. We dissect this because obviously he doesn't think that Republican voters are sophisticated because they're voting for Donald Trump so he must be referring to Democrats who by extension are smarter voters?

If that wasn't enough, at the end of the program, Mr. Hewlitt stated that he'd rather lose the election than lose the Supreme Court, to which Chuck Todd pointed out that Republicans lose the election, they do in fact lose the Supreme Court. To save face, Mr. Hewlitt clarified as a general premise.  But what is he talking about? Who ever wins the next election that person could be confirming three new justices who will all most probably serve for the remainder of his lifetime. 

This is the general state of denial that the establishment is experiencing. As for the Republican talk-radio establishment, they're not fairing any better getting behind Ted Cruz. In his interview today, Sen. Cruz talked about how real conservatives were uniting around his campaign, building momentum. Chuck Todd had to take him down, and did. Below is the full clip, beginning with Mr. Cruz calling last night, "an incredible evening."



Senator Cruz finished third as Mr. Todd bluntly [read: rightly] pointed out, in the most evangelical state so far. If in South Carolina they deem your campaign the most dishonest, you know you have to be scraping the bottom of people's favorability lists. On this first Super Tuesday, Texas and Tennessee will be key indicator states for both Senators Cruz and Rubio respectively. The panel didn't seem bullish on the prospect of Senator Cruz carrying his own state and in Tennessee where establishment candidates go to become whole again, Senator Rubio's chances are iffy at best. Senator Rubio said that 70 percent of Republicans [nationally] are against Mr. Trump and those are the people who will eventually back him, but don't believe the hype on that because there will be 5 candidates in the race, most probably, through the March 15th primary that features Florida and Ohio. This is the day that John Kasich gets out. He'll carry his home state but lose big overall yet be ready for the VP choice if the nominee isn't Trump. Rubio, as we are now obligated to point out to Hugh Hewlitt and others, hasn't won any state contests yet.

Despite insistence by some to the contrary, there is a clear front runner is both races. While to understate the convoluted nature of the Republican race, on the Democratic side, the case for Hillary Clinton is becoming ever stronger, and despite what Mr. Hewlitt would tell you, she is the most electable candidate on either side of the aisle. The panel touched on a point that is going to start resonating louder and louder and that is that the proposals that Senator Sanders has been advocating for are going to be insanely expensive, as high as $31 Trillion over ten years. Once moderate Democrats and Independents start thinking about that number seriously, Sec. Clinton will solidify her advantage and her argument that it's just not realistic to reshape the economy so drastically as Senator Sanders proposes.

That's the argument but as Joy-Ann Reid expertly pointed out, it will be African-Americans who will control Hillary Clinton's fate and ultimately who is nominated. Ms. Reid also explained that it would specifically be African-Americans over 50, which is one of the key groups that we would argue knows best the pulse of the Democratic heart. Growing up as teenagers in neglected cities of the seventies, you remember the people who came and stood up for you the longest because at this point, this group of people has seen it all when it comes to the system being stacked in another direction, admitting what they know it is: institutional racism. Thank you, Ms. Reid for this point.

That fact, along with Harry Reid making a few phone calls (not everything that happens in Vegas stays there), carried the state of Nevada for Sec. Clinton. How about that?

As Jon Ralston explained, Senator Harry Reid - the guy even many Democrats love to hate - is still the most powerful pugilist in Nevada politics and on his way out changed the direction of the race, giving Hillary Clinton a vital up, the line she needed to climb to the nomination. And he did one more solid for a guy he is rather fond of, President Barack Obama. One must acknowledge that Senator Reid fought some ugly fights on behalf of the president and was motivated to protect his legacy by getting people out to the polls ultimately for the person who's openly still advocating for the president's policies.

And if, in fact, the momentum from Sec. Clinton's win in Nevada propels her to the nomination and then she goes on to indeed win the presidency, she will appoint those judges and that will be the legacy of Senator Harry Reid.

Mr. Hewlitt's worst nightmare.


Panel: Hugh Hewlitt, conservative commentator; Joy-Ann Reid, NBC News; Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report; Jon Ralston, Reno Gazette-Journal

A few more things:
Mr. Hewlitt explained that Jeb Bush was the wrong man for the wrong time. Perhaps. However, unfortunately for Jeb Bush, the real irony perhaps is that following his older brother's presidency there never was nor would there be a right time. Will Gov. Bush's legacy be rewritten as Ms. Reid described, to which Mr. Todd agreed that he benefited from the Clinton economy in the 90's when he was in office and then got out before his brother became established in his office? Maybe, but we would speculate, unlikely.

And lastly, as I always like to do - a shout out to our veterans, no matter what generation. I took this photo yesterday in lower Manhattan, The Korean War Memorial. Note the background, specifically through the soldiers left leg.

click on photo to enlarge