The worst attack on Paris since WWII. Everything has changed, and it is going to get invariably worse before it can get better. The French president, Francois Hollande, declared the attack an act of war.
129 dead.
352 wounded.
We've always said that President Obama's weakness as president has been on foreign policy, and have been a little forgiving at times. We agree with the administration's initiatives in the Iranian nuclear deal, but putting that aside for now, his policy with regard to Syria and ISIS has been a disaster. Tell the French people that ISIS has been contained; that they are diminished.
On today's 'special edition' of "Meet The Press," NBC's Richard Engel outlined ISIS's plan very simply: First, establish territory control in Iraq and Syria then establish a presence in other countries. From there, the next expansion is to attack the west followed lastly by targeting the United States. The president's administration has failed to act adequately, for this there is little doubt. As national security expert Michael Leiter said, the president's policy has been "insufficiently robust."
Two key things are missing from the entire discussion of the Syrian civil war and the rise of ISIS: One, a coherent U.S. strategy for the region - combating ISIS, which should now be easier to put together if France invokes the NATO charter, which wouldn't be a bad idea. The second and more infuriating aspect is the absence of the richest Arab countries [read: Saudi Arabia] taking a strong stance against ISIS. How is ISIS at this point still flush with cash from black market oil sales? There is great appreciation for moderate Muslim clerics and dignitaries to condemn the attacks, but without a country such as Saudi Arabia lending actionable support, the condemnations then carry little weight.
However, as Andrea Mitchell correctly assessed, you can not have NATO and Russia fighting the same war at the same time, and that's what makes Jeb Bush's suggestion that there should be a no-fly zone so difficult. It sounds good, but it's not realistic as Russia is not going to shutdown their sortie missions.
Speaking of Jeb Bush, when Chuck Todd ask him about all his brother's military advisers (e.g. Paul Wolfowitz) who were the architects of the disastrous Iraq War that started all this on his team, he said that the times and conditions have changed significantly since 2001. That's true but here's the problem with that answer: The group of people that Gov. Bush has assembled for such situations operates with an agenda that would try to exploit the situation. They have never changed their thinking so while Gov. Bush said we need to focus on the future, the past history for some of these individuals isn't (shouldn't) be kind. For Mr. Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney, the idea of going into Iraq was eventually to control the oil - a cynical agenda. In other simpler words, they can't be trusted. To be fair, at least Gov. Bush has a reasoned opinion and strategy points as opposed to Dr. Carson who said we have to make ISIS feel like losers. But just know that Gov. Bush's foreign policy will cast shadows akin to Vice President Dick Cheney's. If that's something you're in favor of then Jeb Bush is the most rational actor of the lot.
The Iraq War, as the neocons hoped for, also created the conditions where the U.S. military would have to have a large presence in Iraq for decades, on the scale of South Korea where we've been for over 60 years. But an American public that felt duped had no appetite for such a long-term military expansion, especially in a region as volatile as the Middle East. This gave President Obama the political will coming from public opinion to remove troops from Iraq. Should those troops been removed so quickly as Republicans argue against the president? That was not the problem as much as the administration not staying heavily engaged with Iraqi politicians, putting pressure on Nouri al-Maliki much earlier.
As you can see, it's easy to get bogged down in the minutiae discussing the complicated conflicts in the Middle East, but the bottom line is that the United States now needs to act more assertively and decisively in the aftermath of the Paris attacks, standing with France, its oldest ally (as President Obama stated). Supporting the people of France is an honor that the United States should never forfeit.
The political effect here in the United States should be that everyone's attention should be snapped into focus for this presidential campaign because surely the next president is going to have to have a strategy for combating ISIS and a workable proposal to end the Syrian civil war. For the Democrats, it's obvious especially given the clip of the focus group that Hillary Clinton is the consensus choice to lead on foreign policy and she will be more hawkish than President Obama. In the debate last night, however, she did tack to the left in abdicating U.S. leadership role in the fight, saying it was not ours. Surely, it is a moment she wish she could take back because she knows that to defeat ISIS, the United States has to lead. Russia isn't going to do it because Putin's primary agenda is to keep Assad in power.
For the other side, are the Republican front runners, Donald Trump and Ben Carson, up to the task of leading the nation through these perilous conflicts? When Chuck Todd asked Jeb Bush, he said that this is why we have elections. But clearly conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin and Jeff Greenfield simply wanted him to answer with a resounding 'no,' as he should have. As Ms. Rubin said, Gov. Bush needs to call these people out. As you're aware, we're on the record saying that Ben Carson would be downright dangerous for this country in how much his inexperience would jeopardize our national security. And don't be mad at us for saying it, but that's nothing compared what Donald Trump has been saying these past few days, calling the man pathologically diseased among other things, clearly going off the rails in his rhetoric. So before Donald Trump completely denigrates every other candidate in the race, Republicans need to decide who can rationally step up to the task because right now the only vote they're all qualified to get is 'no confidence.'
Panel: Jennifer Rubin, The Washington Post; Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Eugene Robinson, The Washington Post; Jeff Greenfield, Politico contributor.
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