Sunday, April 26, 2015

4.26.15: No Absolute Certainty...Certainly

In the wake of two hostages being killed, and Italian and American respectively, in a drone strike targeting and Al Qaeda stronghold in Pakistan, there is renewed focus on the Drone War.  This is one of Pres. Barack Obama's great failures during his presidency. Under President Bush there were 50 drone strikes but under Pres. Obama there have been 475. The use of drones in warfare opens up a Pandora's box of bad precedents.

Micah Zenko, a drone expert at the Council of Foreign Relations, said that the spread of drone technology and usage is slowly progressing to other countries. The British and the Israelis use drones, but soon in perhaps 5 to 10 years down the line other countries will have drone technology, which opens up a plethora of scenarios. For example, what if Russia starts using drones and then Russian hackers take over the computers that control the drones and start flying them over and firing missiles on places that send the globe into a panic? Will other countries start flying drones towards the United States that it then has to shoot down, firing missiles from within its own country, to protect itself. It seems crazy, but if you can imagine it so easily only says it could be a possible reality.

But that's future semi-horror/fantasy. In the here and now, the worst thing that Mr. Zenko outlined was that drone strikes are the calling card of US foreign policy, the face of US foreign policy. This not-so-secret perpetual state of warfare through drone use hampers the United State’s ability to negotiate and influence other countries. Granted, the United States isn’t truly negotiating with countries where they’re using drones, despite its ‘partnership’ with Pakistan, where many missions are directed. 

Tom Donilon, former national security advisor for Pres. Obama, explained very carefully that in the assessment of this target, “an enemy facility in the Aghan theater of war,” it was the facility itself were what was under scrutiny, not the identities of the individuals in the facility.  In that context, the CIA had authorization because they were correct in that particular assessment that it was indeed an Al Qaeda stronghold.  It’s the fact of that result that registers most with the American people and the domestic repercussions are minimal right now.  Mr. Donilon said as much, while tragic that hostages were killed, there is no absolute certainty in a war zone.

These are part of the unintended consequences – hostages being killed, civilians being injured in a retaliatory terrorist attacks for the use of those drones, and a deteriorating ability to negotiate with other countries around the world will all continue. Another consequence, Mr. Zenko explained, is the change in calculus as to how frequent these strikes are carried out. He explained that if these were special forces incursions there wouldn't be nearly as many or if these were manned aircraft strikes there also wouldn't be nearly as many. So the impetus for the de-escalation of these strikes given that safety calculus is very low. Drone strikes and the failure to close Guantanamo Bay Prison are two big failures that tarnish Mr. Obama’s legacy as president, there is no doubt.

Speaking of tarnished legacies it is difficult to run for president when you already have one at the state of the race. Of course we are speaking about Hillary Clinton and the rumblings of quid pro quo money for influence favors with the Clinton Foundation. The real problem here is that even the more liberal commentators and progress are using words like Evan buy from Yahoo news used on today's program which is arrogance and disregard for conflict of interest and putting it most mildly was governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas who said the Clintons were complicated. It's really hard to say where all of this is going to shake out however if it gets worse and Mrs. Clinton doesn't take Doris Kearns-Goodwin's advice of dealing with this herself and the Democrats have no fallback candidate if this goes in a nightmarish direction for Mrs. Clinton. We like most others don't feel that this will ultimately be a big deal but it adds to a negative narrative established twenty years with Mr. Clinton, and it’s this rehash that we dread.

Lastly, there is the impending Supreme Court decision on whether or not to make same-sex marriage legal in all 50 states and we thought that Mr. Olson and Mr. Boies frame the argument most properly. In denying same-sex marriage you are denying individuals rights that are afforded to others and under the Constitution. Everyone should have equal rights under the law. We understand the religious sensitivities that people have towards the notion of same-sex marriage but as was discussed the progression towards majority social acceptance has been historically fast. This just says that people are more accepting of differences but that those differences shouldn't mean that you have less rights than someone else. That's called advanced democracy.  There’s no absolute certainty that the country always get there, but we’re on board with the practice.


Panel: Asa Hutchinson, Governor of Arkansas; Doris Kearns-Goodwin, presidential historian; Evan Bai, Yahoo News; Helene Cooper, The New York Times

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