Sunday, March 22, 2015

3.22.15: Conditions on the Ground Dictate

There will not be a two-state solution while Benjamin Netanyahu is Prime Minister.  That's what candidate Netanyahu said to court the hard Israeli right wing to win reelection.  He walked those comments back two days after the election, but it's his initial statement that is correct and will turn to be fact.  The Israeli Ambassador to the U.S., Ron Dermer, explained that under current conditions on the ground, there will not be a Palestinian state, and that's what Mr. Netanyahu meant, and not that he wasn't in favor of one. 

In sorting this out, let's be clear - Mr. Netanyahu does not want a two-state solution, and it's curious that he doesn't see that it's in Israel's best long-term interest that there be.  However, where we agree with Mr. Dermer, Israel should not give statehood to the Palestinians if Israel is not getting peace in return.  If the Palestinians can not see their way in getting along peacefully with Israel then what's the point?

And this is where Mr. Riyad Monsour, Palestinian Observer at the United Nations, lost the argument. He said on today's program that Israel could not negotiate because Mr. Abbas's government in the West Bank didn't represent all Palestinians.  However, later when Mr. Abbas partnered with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, bringing the two factions together, Israel still couldn't negotiate.  That's the best he can do?  Hamas doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist as a state, which is an instantaneous deal-breaker. Their dual purpose of a free Palestine that can attack and destroy Israel is farce, and if actualized, is really the first step to their destruction.

Subtracting all the rhetoric, the reality is that a two-state solution is NOT the road to peace, but the end of the road of peace. But Hamas can not get with that program so two states are highly unlikely to happen on Mr. Netanyahu's watch, and there after.

And as Mr. Dermer pointed out, the prospect of another Iranian-backed extremist group on your doorstep - Hamas as junior partner - provides little incentive to do a deal.  And now that Iran has essentially taken control of another capital - Sanaa in Yemen - their growing influence begs the question of what point is it to sit down with a group when it's another country that really makes the decisions?

And speaking of Yemen, the country has broken down into the chaos of a sectarian civil war between Saudi-backed Sunni militias and Iranian-backed Shiite militias.  And though, as we alluded to above, this seeming victory for Iran looks good in the short-term, but it's right at Saudi Arabia's border, which makes it a completely different set of circumstances.  The Saudis will ruthlessly do anything to keep Iranians off the peninsula.  And while the Iranians will be weathering more crippling sanctions because of a failed nuclear deal, the Saudis, though deplorable human rights violators yet enjoying good international standing, will freely put even more money into Sunni extremist groups, like ISIS, to fight the Iranians.  The collateral damage of those extremist groups be damned in the mind of the Saudis.

Conditions on ground (in the region) dictate, and the one sure conclusion is that the conditions will not be getting better any time soon, certainly not in the time that Mr. Netanyahu is prime minister. 

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 Conditions on the ground...

It's an all-too-nice segue into commenting on the interview with Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA), who said that Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who will officially be the first person to declare a candidacy (tomorrow) for president of the United States in 2016, is completely unfit to hold the office on the basis of simply being a climate denier.  For this reason and a host of others, we couldn't agree more with Governor Brown. For the sack of some brevity, we'll just stick with climate change for today.

First, whether you believe climate change exists or not, the fact is that ice melt in the Arctic has set records this year, and with that fact here's a scientific fact that we all agree on - when ice melts it turns to water.  If you don't believe in climate change, then how about coastal change because that what's going to happen - that water has to go somewhere when all that ice melts.

Governor Brown mentioned extreme weather, which includes years-long drought that California is experiencing, as an effect of climate change, which shouldn't be confused with global warming.  We've pointed this out before, but it's worth reiterating and that is this:  when the climate changes in one region of the world other regions will be affected so when it gets warmer in the Arctic, it will become even wetter in tropical and coastal areas.  In the case of the East Coast of the United States, it is becoming wetter but the air remains cold hence the increase in snow fall.  However, one day decades from now the air will become warmer thus rain instead of snow.  So getting back to the case of California, it's dry and becoming worse. (And it will not get better before water is an emergency in the state.

If you're following Mr. Cruz's lead on this subject, we'll understate, being charitable, in saying their you're having an impairment of judgement.


Panel: John Stanton, Buzzfeed Washington Bureau; Helene Cooper, The New York Times; Rich Lowry, The National Review; Jane Harman, the Wilson Center




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