Before we go in-depth for this week's column, we are listing two names at the top here - two very significant names:
Lieutenant Muath al-Kasaesbeh
Sidi Bouzid
Years from now, when discussing beginning, 21st-century Middle East, these two names will be the touchstones.
Sidi Bouzi was the Tunisian fruit vendor who immolated himself that sparked the Arab Spring three years ago. And of course, more recently Lt. Muath al-Kasaesbeh was the Jordian pilot killed by ISIS.
The Arab Spring, which right now seems like a disaster, will ultimately be viewed positively in history because it was the much needed call for citizens to act and demand just treatment, a more free society, but in the aftermath, people could clearly identify what they didn't want - e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt then, and ISIS now. Lt. al-Kasaesbeh's death is a turning point in the fortunes of ISIS because moderate Muslims have had enough and Jordan is fully in the fight.
Let's not neglect to mention the Kurdish peshmerga who's actions Secretary of State John Kerry called "brave and courageous." This is the kind of coalition the United States has to build and support in the region. In addition, as Secretary Kerry also mentioned, the Iraqi Army needs to be retrained before they are ready to advance. It just goes to show how compromised that force is that after all these years of U.S. training, they still have to be retrained.
It's a big wrinkle that doesn't get mentioned much. Right now, the U.S. needs to be able to work with the Iraqi Army, that is greatly under the influence of Iranian interests. Wouldn't stand to reason that the Iranians are agreeing to lay off a bit so that the U.S. can train Iraqi soldiers if the U.S. agrees to keep the nuclear negotiations from breaking down with the implementation of additional sanctions.
In the interview, Sec. Kerry defended the Obama Administration's foreign policy choice of 'strategic patience." In the case of ISIS, that is a policy that has worked, bearing the mind the criticism that the Obama Administration allowed ISIS to form, but the sectarian force that Sec. Kerry mentioned (what the Iraqi Army turned into) was going to happen no matter what because of Iraqi politics, more particularly the policies of fmr. Prime Minister Maliki. Sunnis in the western part of the country were going to retaliate, and ISIS results from that.
But all along, the more moderate Muslim community has had to take full control of the situation, with the Americans in a support/coordination role. But to be vested, it has to be emotional and for the Jordanians, that's exactly what happened.
Though sophisticated in its propaganda, it's banal to say that ISIS is not a rational actor so it was just a matter of time before the breaking point arrived. However, Chuck Todd asked if Vladimir Putin should be considered a rational action or completely off the deep end, even bringing up the possibility of Aspergers Syndrome (which is described on the internet as a form of highly functional autism). That last bit about the Aspergers is laughable especially hasn't it come up really when discussing Kim Jung Un for example. Former Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul said that Mr. Putin was obsessed with the CIA, but we would amend that with also being obsessed with his own power, described as a megalomaniac.
The 'strategic patience' line of thinking doesn't seem to be the way of logic when it comes to Ukraine, however. Mr. Kerry said that the United States would supply economic and other aid to Ukraine. It's the 'other' that one would have to worry about because what that really means is that the United States is going to supply the Ukrainians with arms.
Interestingly, the panel/guests were divided on whether or not it was a good idea. David Brooks took the classic cold war position of upping the ante to let them know you mean business. The BBC's Katty Kay thought it not a good idea reasoning that putting more armaments into an already volatile situation, things will inevitably get worse. Mr. McFaul said he was in favor of arming the Ukrainians.
Arming the Ukrainians at this moment would be a very bad idea especially given the upcoming summit in Minsk, Belarus between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany. What's complicated is that western Europe has to contend with energy concerns because Russia is a big supplier, a factor that carries much less weight for the United States' interests. Arming the Ukrainians should not be taken off the table, but only used as a last result.
Also, if American politicians are going to keep saying that local actors [read: countries] have to get involved in the Middle East if they want ISIS defeated, then why wouldn't they be advocating for the same in Europe? Especially since there is the huge difference that France and Germany are fully engaged and more than capable and willing to negotiate in their backyard. For the sake of all the people that live in Europe, when it comes to arming the Ukrainians, let's have a little more 'Strategic Patience.'
A couple of quick hits...
We're not insightful when it comes to the procedures and happening of weekly prayer breakfast that the President is obligated to attend. However, the president represents all Americans and unless they are acknowledging prayers for multiple faiths, then we shouldn't have it. (separation of church and state)
And we agree wholeheartedly with Andrea Mitchell that Senator Rand Paul doesn't get a pass on the vaccination controversy, he's a medical doctor... and now obviously an irresponsible one. Get your kids vaccinated.
Panel: Katty Kay, BBC America; David Brooks, The New York Times; Andrea Mitchell, NBC News; Stephen Henderson, The Detroit Free Press
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