Sunday, April 20, 2014

4.20.14: Despite Geneva, Ukraine Will Worsen

"I made a clear statement, find these bastards and bring them to justice," is what Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, said in response to reports that armed pro-Russian protesters and militia were forcing Jews to register in the eastern city of Donetsk.

We start there for two reasons: one, it's refreshing and highly commendable that Mr. Yatsenyuk would not take the diplomatic approach in answering the question and unequivocally stated his feeling on the matter, a righteous one we may add, but sadly when it comes to eastern Ukraine the truth is that his government has little control over preventing such horrendous actions. 

The second reason is to illustrate the logic of Putin's approach to the entire crisis in trying to achieve his end goal, which appears to be the territorial recreation of the former Soviet Union, or as close as he can get to it as possible.  "Restore the dream of the Soviet Union," Prime Minister Yatsenyuk said when asked his opinion, adding that it would be the greatest disaster of this century to see its reformation.  For Putin, this hateful incident causes no emotional stir any which way and is coldly accessed only on the measure of whether it helps achieve the goal or not.  Right now, Mr. Putin's government is trying to sew as many seeds of unrest as possible, and even though Mr. Putin didn't orchestrate this new episode of Jewish persecution, he knows it helps his cause.  As noted by Radhika Jones, TIME Deputy Managing Editor, Russia wants to create as much as possible before Ukraine's upcoming election. 

In the joint interview with Senators Bob Corker (R-TN) and Chris Murphy (D-CT), both members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, they both agreed that the United States should take action now, meaning that punitive sanctions should be put in place immediately.  And why not, there no intention on the part of the pro-Russian opposition in eastern Ukraine and it doesn't stop Mr. Putin from doing as he wills.  On the other hand, one would have to figure that if the United States were to impose sanctions, in the mind of Mr. Putin's government, that is justification to become directly involved in eastern Ukraine including sending in troops.  Mr. Putin would say, "Stop the sanctions and we'll stop moving into Ukraine," but he wouldn't, and then you'd have to consider Senator's Murphy's proposition that a NATO ally could be next.  David Brooks described Mr. Putin as 19th century expansionist, which seems completely ludicrous in the 21st century, but here we are.

And for Mr. Obama's part, his administration's focus should be assisting the newly formed Ukrainian government on its feet with aid in all forms.  When asked what Ukraine needed the prime minister said that it was an easy question to answer because they were in need of so many things.  Most notably they need military assistance, but that is something the Obama Administration is reluctant to do.  Even though this is a reenactment of the cold war, supplying weapons could turn a cold war into an actual war, something no one wants.  Senator Corker said that U.S. policy has helped in creating the crisis in Ukraine, meaning that U.S. inaction in situations like Syria emboldened Russia.   However, the senator's comment isn't constructive because the alternative would be direct military intervention. He also repeatedly said that the United States was 'embarrassed' by Russia, which isn't the case and is even rhetorically an unfortunate choice of words, as it reflects poorly on all government, not just the administration.

But Senator Corker's suggestion of building up the security relationship with Ukraine is a much more prudent idea, but a potentially shrewd one, that we agree with because not only does it help with internal defense, it can create the conditions for a large diplomatic presence, which puts military options on pause.

Chuck Todd explained that even inside the administration (of course outside), people are concerned that the president is not 'alpha dog' enough in his posture.  Not many actually disagree with the measures that he's taken, but feel that his rhetoric stance is too quiet.  So is it a stylistic approach or actual policy that leads Senator Corker to say that the president's foreign policy is always a day late and a dollar short?  In other words, the president doesn't talk tough.  We're OK with that, as long as Mr. Obama is thoughtful yet quickly decisive.  It is what's demanded of the office, and too much chest-thumping isn't.


Round Table: Chuck Todd, NBC News Political Director & Chief White House Correspondent; David Brooks, New York Times Columnist; Radhika Jones, TIME Deputy Managing Editor; David Shribman, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Executive Editor


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