Sunday, March 02, 2014

3.2.14: What Do Secretary Kerry's Tough Words for Russia Really Mean

Secretary of State John Kerry did not mince words on today's Meet The Press when discussing Russia's actions in the Ukraine saying at the start that Russia's sending of troops into the Crimean region of the Ukraine was 19th century behavior in the 21st century.  He then posed the possibility of the Putin government creating a phony pretext to annex the region, later calling it an invasion.  In between other statements, he called Russia a kleptocracy and Mr. Putin himself a tyrant.

So let's just clarify that yes, indeed, Mr. Putin wants to annex control of the Crimean region, clearly, and while central governmental control in Kiev is haplessly weak, Mr. Putin is free to move in.  As was the general consensus amongst the round table guests, Mr. Putin is not a leader that cares in the slightest what other around the world think.  He is going to do everything he can within his power to restore Russian greatness, as he sees it.  Plus the Crimean region is mostly ethnically Russian so people can see annexation as something very different - protection.  And in Mr. Putin's mind, it's time for Russia to have complete territorial access to their Black Sea Fleet.  

Despite the tough words from Secretary Kerry, Mr. Putin knows that President Obama's response will be limited.  In fact, when the moderator, Mr. Gregory, asked the Secretary what the 'or else' would be when Mr. Obama warned Russia on Friday that they shouldn't act military against the Ukraine 'or else,' he didn't really have an answer.  Realizing this, he outlined the economic actions the United States could take to pressure Russia in pulling back.  He mentioned the G8 Summit that is supposed to happen in Sochi and its possible cancellation with the potential of expelling Russia from the G8.  However, we agree with Chuck Todd who said that the summit should already be cancelled, no more warnings that it might be.  In fact, in hindsight, the U.S. should have taken these steps with Russia because of their actions in Syria and their support of Assad.  

And does anyone see it as a good idea, in Russia or the United States, to have a hot war between the two countries?  Everyone's trying to avoid the reinstatement of a new cold war, however, if you take Secretary Kerry at his word, that's exactly what we're headed for.  The round table seemed in agreement that the U.S. should already be hitting Russia hard with economic sanctions, along with their NATO allies, they should isolate Russia economically.

Here's the rub, as was pointed out, Mr. Putin doesn't care what others think and given that he'll do business with whomever he wants whether or not the United States likes it or not; countries lie Iran, Syria, Nigeria, and North Korea come to mind.  His actions indicate that he has no problem moving completely away from the European Union and the West all together. 

With all the talk of the geo-political consequences for Russia's actions, it still is about the Ukraine and its people and the country is just that, a country that has sovereignty, it's not a province of Russia so Mr. Kerry was justified in calling the Russian troops moving into the Ukraine, an invasion.   With such talk from the Secretary of State, which followed Mr. Obama's Friday statements,  some definitive action must be taken, no more moving around the periphery.  Mr. Obama faces unprecedented hatred domestically and has tried to be well liked instead by all of the international community.  It's time to ruffle feathers and establish that the notion that Russia needs to be part of the international community more than the international community needs Russia to be included.  The means also forcing China to make a decision but that's a topic for another day.  

Given that Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), a member of Foreign Relations Committee, also appeared on the program to comment on the situation in the Ukraine, it must be noted that what hampers the president's credibility to act is the fact that Republicans do not have his back.  Senator Rubio said that he was encouraged by Mr. Kerry's statements, but went on to criticize the president's relations his approach to Russia.  What Republicans in Congress need to recognize that Mr. Kerry is speaking on behalf of the president and that they all need to get together - leaders of both parties to craft a responsible course of action.  

Remember that Mr. Kerry advocated sending missiles into Syria and when the President brought it to Congress because they constantly complained that the president wasn't consulting them, they rejected a military option, internationally making the president look weak, which was a stupid thing to do.

Having said that, Mr. Rubio's words for Russia were just as harsh as Mr. Kerry's, calling Russia a government of liars and going so far to say that Russia is an enemy of the United States.  Mr. Rubio isn't ready for prime time [read: He's not presidential material], but he is a Senator and a member of the Foreign Relations committee and as such he and other Republican leaders need to work with the president on a policy that is best for the United States as it relates to Russia, or these provocative moves by Mr. Putin will continue. 

The precedent was set with the military action Mr. Putin took in Georgia during the Bush Administration. Democrats, especially Senatorial ones, needed to help strengthen the president's hand then with Mr. Putin and didn't do it.    It was a diplomatic failure of inaction that is being played out again in the Ukraine.  On one degree though, we have to be fair to Democrats in saying that Mr. Cheney was a major impediment for cooperation between the two parities.  The United States government needs to get passed it because if they can talk all the tough words they can muster, either party, but they won't make a difference in changing rivals' behavior because the U.S. government can't ever seem to state them with one unified voice, hence they would mean nothing and emboldening Mr. Putin even more.


Round Table: Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker, NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, Founder of Women in the World Tina Brown, and Bloomberg View columnist Jeffrey Goldberg


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