Sunday, March 16, 2014

3.16.14: Ukraine, Like a Mystery Airliner, Begs More Questions

With the entire world still wondering what exactly happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, the Malaysian government has now opened up a criminal inquiry, meaning that the plane was purposely diverted by the pilot who also turned off the transponders cutting off any tracking capability. The information out there only leads to more questions about what happened to the plane.  They can not find any wreckage debris but given the amount of time the plane was in the air after last contact, it had to be low on fuel.  Whether a terrorist act, an accidental crash, or commitment to suicide, everything is speculation until the plane is found.

Where there are just as many questions with no clear answer is with the crisis in the Ukraine. Today, the Crimean region, which is officially part of the Ukraine, is holding a referendum on whether they will secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.  White House Senior Adviser Dan Pfeiffer stated that the referendum is an illegal act that the United States would not recognize it.

Moderator David Gregory said that he was working on the assumption that Crimea is lost to Russia and none of his three guests - Mr. Pfeiffer or Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) or Jeff Flake (R-AZ) could say anything to counter that assessment.  And the fact is that President Putin, one way or another, is going to annex Crimea into the Russian Federation just as he had done with the Republic of Georgia.

All this leads to the question of whether Russia will then move into eastern Ukraine, emboldened by the lack of response from the west so far.  However, the Senators and Mr. Pfeiffer said that sanctions, from both the United States and western European countries, would be forthcoming in days.  The sanctions have been essentially approved by the United Nations security counsel that voted to condemn Russia's actions with regard to Crimea, with China notably abstaining.

We're of the opinion that the countries of the west should impose sanctions but we also think that the sanctions will provide the impetus for Russia to move into eastern Ukraine because at that point, Mr. Putin is going to care even less than he does now about what the west thinks or does.  It goes with the logic that once you've made someone mad at you, the increasing degrees of which matter less and less.  And what Putin, and everyone else for that matter, knows is that western Europe's appetite for a large scale military confrontation are nil.  Europe simply will not go there again, but Mr. Putin will not even risk that outside chance so he annex as much as he possibly can, stopping just short of risking an armed confrontation. 

Fresh off a trip in Ukraine, Senator Flake described the Ukrainian military as 'hollowed out.'  Mr. Pfeiffer said that there was an economic aid package on the floor of Congress for a vote, but there wasn't one for military aid to the country, nor will there be, which translates into more leverage for Mr. Putin.  With that, we found it refreshing that Mr. Flake, with a seemingly deeper understanding of the situation there, stated that there was nothing that President Obama said or did that further emboldened Mr. Putin to act the way he has - a concession that runs counter to what his fellow Republican colleague have been saying in criticism of the president.

But Senator Flake's candid observation runs tandem with something else that he said that we completely agree with, which is that there is nothing we can do to withstand a Russian move on the Ukraine.  That's just being non-politically honest.

Senator Durbin didn't concede ground as easily but it was more than evident that the two men were certainly on the same page, as it were, which despite the direness of the situation, lends itself well to the notion of the United States having more sound foreign policy, at least for this particular circumstance. 

That's certainly not the case on domestic issues despite Dan Pfeiffer thinking that there is still a window of opportunity for there to be immigration reform this year.  The round table declared it all but dead as well, and for good reason. It's the perfect conundrum for the president in the eyes of Republicans, a classic lose-lose as it stands right now.  For Democrats, as Mr. Gregory noted to the senior adviser, without immigration reform, Mr. Obama is becoming known as the deporter-in-chief while Republicans can rhetorically hammer away that the president wants to give amnesty to millions.  There's no reason why Republicans would want to change that dynamic, especially in an election year. 

Speaking to the overall trust issues the public has with the president and Washington in general,  it's easily to understand why.  You don't trust the president to get things done because you know that he will stiff opposition simply because of who he is, never mind the idea.

With the subject of truth in mind, the CIA spying on Congress?  For now, we'll reserve comment while this develops... #politically juicy.


Round Table:  NBC News Political Contributor Robert Gibbs, the Heritage Foundation’s Israel Ortega, Jon Ralston of “Ralston Reports,” and New York Times Washington Bureau Chief Carolyn Ryan 


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