Sunday, February 09, 2014

2.9.14: Some Cooperation and Some Disagreement

Just first off - we have to get this one thing out of the way - What does it say about the people 'representing' us [read: Republican Congressional leaders] when they say they don't trust the man that the American people elected the man twice to enforce the laws that they pass?  It completely disrespects the office of the President of The United States, which ever individual is occupying it, and hence the entire system that created the office in the first place.  And if the rebuttal is that it is not being disrespectful of the office, then it's a personal attack and in politics, personal is petty and that never gets you ahead in the long run.  Not to mention the fact that's just another lame excuse not to compromise and pass legislation.

On the hand, one has to ask where does this distrust come from?  It's mainly stems from the Affordable Care Act legislation (Obamacare), in which the president passed a series of executive orders to change aspects that weren't working such as people's healthcare plans being cancelled and not being able to keep the one they have.

Such executive orders were to be expected because Republicans do not have any interest in fixing Obamacare except to repeal it all together, which we know is not going to happen as long as Barack Obama is president, and nor will it happen if Hillary Clinton is elected president.  By the end of another Democratic presidential term, Obamacare will have become the norm and there will be no going back from it.

Speaking of Hillary Clinton, a Meet The Press obsession, if she does decide to run, she will not be a third term of Barack Obama as Mr. Gregory posed.  First of all, she'll be a lot more hawkish when it comes to foreign policy. Though she was the face of the ill-fated 'reset' with Russia some years back, she would be taking a much harder line with them as president.  U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul said there is some cooperation and some disagreement when it comes to relations between the two countries, but in reality every major issue is a disagreement from Edward Snowden to the Ukraine to Syria and Iran.

For Vladimir Putin, the Cold War never ended, it simply changed gears from military-style standoffs to competition economically and technologically.  However, since Putin knows that Russia is so far behind at that game at the moment (Sochi being a first step in correcting that), he's more than willing to play spoiler using Mr. Snowden or Syria as tools to do it.  Shrewdly, he's not looking for the monicker of friend or foe, but prime competitor.

Speaking of disagreement, going to back to healthcare and Mrs. Clinton, she'll differ from Barack Obama but not as much as she will on foreign relations.  You'd have to say that the position that makes most sense for her is that overall, she agrees with the concept and approach of Obamacare, but that there are many aspects of the law which she would have done differently.  One would also have to think that she already has the answers to these questions already fully flushed out.  With this said, however, we agree with David Brooks that she still needs the 3 signature issues separate from Barack Obama on which to run, and she doesn't have them yet.

This will be a bigger factor for her than what Senator Rand Paul has been going around saying, that Bill Clinton is a sexual predator and that because of this, donors should ask for there money back. The reason that this strategy ultimately won't work is because not enough Republicans will get on board with such attacks to validate them.  Good for Rand Paul if he feels that there is nothing in his personal life that can be called into question and hence attacked, but many other politicians don't feel as comfortable with that notion and wouldn't want to open themselves up to being labelled with such lurid terms.

In the meantime, we were treated to a lively round table discussion on healthcare with Chief Executive Officer for Heritage Action for America Mike Needham making his first appearance on Meet The Press coupled with the release of the Congressional Budget Office's report on the fiscal effects of Obamacare.  Mr. Needham said that according to the CBO's assessment, the Affordable Care Act will cost Americans 2.5 million jobs.  Andrea Mitchell was eager to jump in and say that what Mr. Needham was saying was not accurate, and E.J. Dionne pointed out that the ACA would create a net positive on job growth.  What the report actually says is that because individuals now have the option to choose to work less hours, it will be the equivalent of 2.5 million full time jobs over the course of ten years.  This is where Senator Schumer's statement about people having more freedom because of the ACA comes from, his specific example of being a single mother who wants to spend more time raising her young children, and not have to worry about their health.  It's very easy to see the spin that can come from both directions.

Senator Portman's argument was that with the lowest number of people in the workforce in 35 years, we shouldn't have a healthcare law that discourages small businesses from hiring over 50 employees.  However, this is really a false choice that he's pointing out.  Small businesses that have 50 or more employees are businesses can afford to give their employees healthcare, not to mention that the president signed one of those executive orders to delay this mandate.

Even if the CBO came right out and said that the ACA would cost Americans 2.5 million jobs in ten years, that's still ten years in which a lot could happen.  They don't account for growth in a new industry, one that they might not even see coming.  Point being, there are so many variables that could come into play in that time, it's difficult say where we'll be in terms of employment figures at that time.

What everyone does agree on is that to help the labor force, we need immigration reform, but for Republicans, unfortunately, it is becoming another lose-lose situation because of their hard right flank.  Paul Ryan and Speaker John Boehner want to move ahead with immigration reform this year but because of Republicans in reelection fights fearing a challenge to their right in the primaries, they are all backing away from doing anything, which obviously hurts their chances of growing their constituency.

Senator Portman mentioned that border security must be in place as if it weren't, but as it stands (as Senator Schumer pointed out) Barack Obama has deported more individuals than any other president and the net crossing at the border are zero.  How much more could you want?  For the undocumented living in this country, the Republicans have made it clear that amnesty, citizenship, and even legalization are all off the table right now because of the political cost. We think they are misreading that.

But hence, we're back to the trust issue.  Mr. Schumer made a bit of news this morning (we like that) by saying that if Republicans didn't trust the president to enforce law then pass a law that won't go into effect until 2017, after he leaves office.  Either the Republicans say yes to that or it proves the point that the trust issue was just another excuse not to do anything, because they'll have to come up with another as to why that's a bad idea. 

The government has to function and both parties have to be involved  However, as David Brooks said, the Republican establishment doesn't run the Republican party right now, Mike Needham of Heritage Action does.


Round Table: NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Andrea Mitchell, New York Times Columnist David Brooks, Washington Post Columnist E.J. Dionne, Chief Executive Officer for Heritage Action for America Mike Needham, and Former White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Mona Sutphen

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