We will acquire guns and weapons that are large enough to deter a tyrannical government. Now, we're not taking about extreme gun nuts in this country, but the sentiment of the unhinged young new deity in North Korea, Kim Jong Un. However, we think you see the point we're making (on the sad gun commentary in this country). Our second thought was actually one of consolation because when you start listening to conversations about North Korea, it makes our politicians seem much more in the wheelhouse of sanity, where we would put Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on this issue. However, he did have some tough words today: namely, that he could see a major war happening if there is a provocation by the North on South Korea. He said it as though it was an inevitability, which is a little troublesome... always.
Mr. Graham pointed out that the politics in South Korea are changing, and it is true that South Korea's first female president (we'll obviously get to more on this dynamic later) Park Geun-hye is taking a harder line with North Korea and will not be so appeasing as her predecessor. The way that Mr. Graham summed it up was that the North loses, the South wins, with 'our' help (a Southern politician's dream... we're just kidding).
But in all seriousness, what we are witnessing is the utter stupidity of a regime that is going to facilitate its own demise, along with its people. The importance of South Korea and Japan as allies to the United States are understated here at home, but they shouldn't be. We need to have the back of both of those countries. The Obama Administration understands this, as Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense
policy, outlined - sending B2 bombers to the region, working on different military defense scenarios with South Korea, and stepping up diplomacy. Senator Graham refreshingly acknowledged this understanding, and should follow suit on other areas of foreign policy as well.
Diplomacy is the key as all the guests seemed to agree, though Senator Graham came off as having little use for it. His feeling seemed to be that North Korea being paranoid, irrational, and armed to the hilt will eventually do something stupid with their arms that will then require a take down. However, his dismissive tone is not without merit because diplomacy with North Korea never works. They sit down at the negotiating table, with China twisting its arm, give in to demands in exchange for economic and food aid, get it, and then renege on their end of the deal. The difference this time is that China is not stepping up. Maybe they will after Secretary Kerry's visit there later in the week, but right now the Chinese want to sit back and see how this plays out because what they're coming to realize is that North Korea as a viable state is unsustainable. The Chinese are propping up North Korea and they can't even use that country as a market for their goods, useless as a trading partner. They may be figuring that at this point at least a unified Korean peninsula could buy more of our stuff.
"What's the alternative [to diplomacy]?" Bill Richardson rhetorically asked. Well, the alternative is clear, and a scary, real possibility because the North has always thought the South wouldn't respond, but who knows now. Not to mention the 30,000 troops we have in the region. We can tell you that if Mexico, or even Canada, were to be occasionally sinking U.S. ships off our coast or firing shells or rifles off at the border, we would certainly feel we should react, don't you think? That's where South Korea is now. The scary part is if North Korea does something reckless with their nuclear arms. So many 'what ifs...,' and at this point the United States needs to do everything it can to avoid an armed conflict because the American electorate is simply worn out from war.
And our politicians are finally getting that message. Senator Graham's tone on Syria has changed. Initially, he and Senator John McCain, were all for fully taking sides and arming Syrian rebels. He's toned that back a bit, saying today that he supports training rebels with the assured understanding the UN Peace-Keeping troops can go in and secure the 17 chemical weapons sites, all meaning no U.S. troops. His main concern was that of Jordan and the fate of King Adullah, the United States' only Arab friend in the region (you can go back and forth with the Saudis). Yes, all that money, blood, and treasure has not gained us any friends there.
Speaking of friends, self-deportation wasn't gaining any for the Republican party and, rightly, Senator Graham said that this idea is a thing of the past. We just need to clarify, for the record, that it was never an idea of the present. With ideas like that, why would it surprise anyone that Mitt Romney (a good man Mr. Graham said today) didn't win the election. Recognizing the humility and the humanity in addition to the politics is the way that Bill Richardson described the approach that should be taken on immigration reform. Sensible to be sure, but when you hear Senator Graham say that the United States has to 'regain its sovereignty' you know that politics is still a first priority for many. In fact, may we say that the entire notion of the United States having lost its sovereignty in the first place is lazy, lowest-common denominator, shallow, xenophobic rhetoric.
Mr. Richardson and Mr. Graham did concur that there are a few sticking points between business and labor to be worked out in regard to a guest worker program - translated, this means that there are points on which the special interests will not be as profitable and those need to be fixed, but otherwise it's all good. One point Mr. Richardson made that caught our attention was that a path to citizenship needs to be achievable. And it really does. He explained that proposed framework would enforce a 13-year process, and that's way too long. All that says is that citizenship is dangling out there but that we really don't want you to have it. That timeline doesn't recognize the humility or the humanity.
For another point on the humility front, we agree with Jim Cramer that the most recent weak jobs report (88K last month) was due in large part to the president crying 'big' wolf about the humanity of the sequester and that CEOs took heed. There are definitely negative effects on our economy due to the sequester, hence our insertion of the word 'big' but not to the extent which the president warned, and we do maintain that the whole sequester episode was completely unnecessary, an illustration of politicians not doing their jobs.
Where our leaders need to make a decision is on the Keystone Pipeline - just take it off the table. Mr. Cramer explained that in the last four years the biggest producers of jobs are companies in the oil and gas industries, and with that in mind you have to ask yourself does the necessity of today (60,000 jobs) outweigh the damage this pipeline could cause (probably will cause) in the future? The way commentators, pundits, and politicians speak about this pipeline, you would think it will be the panacea for our high unemployment, which simply isn't the case, but its advocates are framing it that way. That said the job participation rate is at a historic low should be a grave concern - people need hope.
Lastly, we're staying away from Presidential politics right now but, obviously, we have to comment on today's discussion about the prospect of a Hillary Clinton campaign. We'll say this: we agree with Mr. Richardson that she is 100% running; we agree with Andrea Mitchell that it is about time we had a woman as our president (She didn't explicitly say that but it exudes from her person.); and we agree with Mike Murphy that we'll have to re-litigate the past. What wasn't said is that Mrs. Clinton is in fact the most qualified person to be the next president amongst Democrats and Republicans, like it or not.
Round Table: Fmr. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), GOP strategist Mike Murphy; Politico’s Maggie Haberman; and NBC News
Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, Andrea Mitchell
Additional Guests: Michele Flournoy who served as undersecretary of defense
policy under President Obama from 2009-2012. CNBC's Jim Cramer
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