Sunday, April 28, 2013

4.28.13: The Syrian Red Line

Senate Armed Services Committee member John McCain (R-AZ) assessed that the implied meaning of creating a red line with regard to the Assad Regime in Syria using chemical weapons was a green light to do anything up to that.  That's catchy, but a bit off the mark.  The atrocities committed by the Bashar Assad government have not gone unnoticed, but there is an weariness in this country to become the prime player in a Syrian intervention.  There is a little merit in what the Senator said if you interpret it this way, which is that we think the Obama Administration would like to handle Syria like Libya with the 'leading from behind' strategy. [That's not to imply that leading-from-behind is a bad strategy.  Generals always stand in the back; just now it's the United States acting as the general and the troops are other countries...] However, that's not going to work with Syria because of several factors. 

Chuck Todd  provided a key fact that the Arab League has not supported the ouster of the Assad Regime.  The feeling there is that if they had the choice between orderly oppression or failed state freedom, the Arab League would choose the former and that is something they feel the Assad Regime provides - order that doesn't given their own populations any ideas.  What also factors into their non-decision is that Iran didn't care about Libya but they care about Syria, their trading partner and conduit to Lebanon. In addition to Russia being a cagey partner in all this, there is the huge problem the usage of chemical weapons, which brings us back to the red line. 

It's in the right place because WMDs have consequences beyond politically designed borders, however the Obama Administration has to own this rigid stance.  They have been reluctant to do so and that's why verifying the use of Sarin gas, as it's presumed to be, will not come quickly if the Administration has anything to say about it, and John McCain did admit that it wasn't an airtight case even though the Israelis and Brits are pretty convinced.  It's something that we, as American citizens, need to be 100% sure of before we do anything because that's the mentality of the country now, no more combat based on inaccurate information.

For Senator McCain, he just wants to be proven right, in that we should have done what he's been suggesting all along, as he reminded us today, of arming the rebels, creating a no-fly zone, deploying patriot missiles, and help the 2,500 refugees pouring into Jordan everyday.  He said that we could do this without putting any boots on the ground but that's ridiculous.  In fact, he stated that it was the worst thing we could do.  Think about it... whose going to enforce a no-fly zone whether by plane or missile?  Our troops... on the ground.  Now, we get it, what he specifically means is that U.S. troops would not be in-country in Syria.  However, if you suggest that a UN force needs to go into Syria to secure chemical weapons, you have to step up and say that U.S. troops have to be included.  We can not have it both ways, but we can get it both ways.

For example, what's most troubling is when you hear Senator McCain tell the story of how innocent Syrian civilians are going to blame the United States and take revenge on us for not doing anything, 'sick and bitter' he described them.  Yet, if we were to become involved militarily, inevitably (sick to say) we'll inadvertently kill civilians in an airstrike and then they'll hate us for that.  That's what you would call a classic no win.

We'll get to Bush's Library dedication and legacy more in a few moments, but maybe this is part of it.  The world now expects us, more than ever, to get involved in every militarized crisis or they will call us on our empty freedom rhetoric.  Karen Hughes, a Bush senior adviser, reinforced that notion on today's program saying that the world was waiting for us to act, and that if we don't get directly involved in Syria that we're not leading.

The exhaustive nature of that responsibility is certainly wearing on the American people and it affects our economy at home, which makes it even more difficult to justify.  That leaves us with arming the rebels, which could potentially restart the cycle once again.  The lessons of 9-11 are rooted in the arming of Mujahideen rebels in Afghanistan in the 1980's, one of which was named Osama Bin Laden.  As Mike Murphy assessed, 'Good guys might be hard to find' in Syria. Seems a little far-fetched, but is it?  Congressman Peter King (R-NY) said that the rebels were, to a degree, under the influence of Al Qaeda; he implied with his tone that it's 'most' of the rebels but that is not the case.  But, he seems to think it's within the realm of possibility.

The twisted ideology created by Bin Laden, after getting his start through us, touched down again in Boston.  Let it be said that Osama Bin Laden done far more harm to Islam than good, in fact no good because he cemented a false association between Islam and extreme violence.  Exhibit 'A' is Congressman King sitting next to his Congressional colleague, Keith Ellison (D-MN), a Muslim, and saying that the Muslim community is the problem, with Mr. Ellison trying to reason him away from that to no avail.  And Mr. King does have it wrong.  Two words - Timothy McVeigh.  Instead of targeting, hence alienating, the Muslim community, public officials and lawyer enforcement should work with the community and build more trust.  That's how the recent terror suspects in Canada were apprehended - someone from the community, an Imam, alerted the authorities.  Mr. King said that we can not be taken over by political correctness, but by the same token we can not be taken over by bigotry and hatred.  And it has to be noted that the last thing that Congressman King said today was that work of FBI to follow up on initial leads and any subsequent investigation of Tamerlan Tsarnaev was an 'absolute failure,' a very significant assertion that I'm sure we'll be discussing more in future columns.

They did mention that the mother is under investigation as she may be the one responsible for radicalizing her two sons.  That speaks to such self-hatred, the kind so intense that someone is willing to essentially sacrifice her own offspring.  The successful end result of all this is the 'perversion of Islam' as Tony Blair called it.

We could go on, but that brings us to a key historical figure in all of this, President George W. Bush, whose library was dedicated this week at Southern Methodist University and whose legacy is once again being debated.  Mike Murphy said that there were a lot of little mistakes, but that he got the big decisions right.  We'd amend that to say that he made a lot of little mistakes that lead to the wrong decisions in big moments.  Instead of going on ad nauseam about a legacy that 'history hasn't finished writing yet' we'll just make these few observations. 

During the dedication of the library where five living presidents spoke, there was not one mention of the Iraq War, and as David Gregory pointed out, the Iraq War is exhibited in the library only as a part of the larger war on terror.  That does a distinct disservice to all the U.S. service personnel who fought and died there.  We're still deeply involved in foreign combat that Mr. Bush initiated, and for here at home... You know the story... Upon his leaving office, the economy collapsed creating the worst crisis since the Great Depression. That accounts for a lot, wouldn't you agree? 

When commentators, reporters, and presidents say that if you know George Bush personally, it's impossible not to like him.  We don't doubt it.  If all those people say he's a man of compassion (think: immigration reform) and integrity (combating HIV/AIDS in Africa) then we take their word for it because they would know.  What we know is that the same can not be said for construction crew that built that library: Richard Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, John Ashcroft, Scooter Libby, Henry Paulson, Alberto Gonzalez, Condoleeza Rice, and Paul Wolfowitz to name a few. 


Round Table:  Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), GOP strategist Mike Murphy, NBC’s Chuck Todd, and former counselor to the president, once described as “the most influential woman ever to serve an American president,  Karen Hughes.

Additional Guests: Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who serves on both the intelligence and homeland security committees in the House, and Minnesota Democratic Congressman Keith Ellison. 


Aside: We thought the White House Correspondents Dinner last night was entertaining.  (Conan was good but there was something odd about his delivery from the podium that struck us as not so funny.) The only issue we had was with the Twitter hashtag 'nerdprom.' Really?  If anything the hash tag should have been 'command and control.'  The most powerful people in government, media, business, and entertainment all in one room is not a 'nerd prom.' Give us a break...

For the record, the definition of a nerd rests somewhere within the context of sitting at home on a Saturday night watching CSPAN online.


No comments: