Sunday, August 12, 2012

8.12.12: The Pick - Paul Ryan

Cutting to the chase - Mitt Romney finally doesn't have to discuss his tax returns.  Kidding aside, he made a good pick for his vice-presidential running mate in Paul Ryan, the 42 year-old congressman from Wisconsin.  We agree with the general consensus of all the guests on today's program that in choosing Mr. Ryan, it creates a stark difference in which the direction the country will go.  What we do take issue with today's guests are the respective rationale's for what it means in terms of policy.  In terms of today's program, we have a serious problem with some of the discourse coming from some.

"Gaming changing" in terms of picks is now firmly in the American political lexicon.  It may have always been there but now, it is a requisite measure.  RNC Chairman Reince Priebus asked if it's a game-changer - yes.  Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)? - yes, game change; and even David Axelrod, Mr. Obama's s Senior Campaign Advisor, couldn't disagree that it was.

But it's not, because a game-changer changes the outcome and that's not quite clear right yet. Right now, we say it doesn't because President Obama still has the upper hand.  What the pick gives Mr. Romney is a vision to attach himself to, one that he lacked in the campaign up to this point, specifically an economic one.  As chairman of the House Budget Committee, Paul Ryan has created an economic plan, as we know, that is quite polarizing.  Namely, as heavily discussed on today's program are the changes to Medicare and turning it into a voucher system.

In defense of this plan, Mr. Priebus said (twice) that the President stole $700 million out of medicare to pay for the Affordable Care Act, and clarified that it was not a transfer or re-direction of funds, but that he stole it, and has blood on his hands because of it.  Reince Priebus is an embarrassment to our political system and discourse.  This column does provide harsh criticism to both sides, but Mr. Priebus is an exceptional case and his comments today reinforce that.  If you were to ask him if the President literally stole this money, he would say, unequivocally "yes." So why wouldn't you push for criminal charges and impeachment proceedings?  The inability to answer that question simply illustrates how ridiculous the charge, but this is accusing the President of the United States of being a criminal.  He's just part of the problem of our political discourse so when he does , in fact,  bring up a valid point such as the President said that he would cut the deficit in half in his term and hasn't done it, we can not take him seriously.

When Mr. Priebus and Wisconsin's second representative guest, Governor Scott Walker, were asked if Mr. Ryan's plan changed Medicare fundamentally, they both countered with that it wouldn't effect any person of age 54 or older - your benefits would stay exactly the same.  The implications of this point have been understated in the media, but are profound for this election.

This election is like a last-ditch chance for the larger Republican agenda, which is to change the government's relationship with its people in terms of assistance.  [Conversely, one could argue that they want to increase funds in terms of our relationship with everyone else in the world unless they intend to start using the military internally. A discussion for another time.]  On the other hand, the Democrats feel they are in a full-prevent defense of social problems and ultimately taking the profit motive out of healthcare.  This is what makes the '54 and older' clause so important politically.

Seniors vote and promising  them now that their Medicare will not be touched could sway their support because the reality is that most will vote for themselves, not for future generations, on this point.  This is if the Republicans can sell it.  If they can, then it would just prove that there is no 'me generation,' it's the me-time that we've created.

So David Axelrod and Democratic strategist should be careful what they wish for, Wisconsin is duly in play with the Ryan pick.  Republicans have been chipping away in that state for a while, actually the chips are more like chunks, and they want to make it red.  Mr. Axelrod said that it 'clarifies the choice' of whether you're for Medicare of not and how we manage tax policy.  But the 'Medicare or not' argument could be clouded if, again, the Republicans can sell it to seniors... admittedly a big 'if.'  We appreciate that Mr. Axelrod also gave us another piece of foreshadowing as to where they'll go with their attacks against Mr. Ryan - that he, to use Mr. Axelrod's term, 'rubber stamped' of all of Bushes policies.  When Mr. Greogory asked Mr. Preibus earlier in the program about this point with Paul Ryan himself admitting that he was embarrassed by some of those decisions, he had an inadequate defense, none actually.

But Paul Ryan could still very well sell his plan to the American people, and Chuck Todd who broke the announcement, described it as Romney re-launching his campaign. Bill Bennett stated that Paul Ryan had a way of presenting a winning argument.  However, the Romney campaign has precious little time to argue Mr. Ryan's economic philosophy along with  all the others that they have to tackle as well.

On Medicare in particular, Rich Lowry from the National Review insisted that the campaign should go on the offensive, also mentioning the $700 million sum.  When he challenged Rachel Maddow on this, she couldn't come up with a response, instead pointing out Mr. Ryan's supply-side economic philosophy.  He point may be true, but it didn't counter Mr. Lowry's point.  Unfortunately, she was more bombast today than effective counter balance.  She could have mentioned that the $500 million of bi-partisan agreed upon waste out of Medicare that the Obama Administration cut.

Rightly, before making the panel discussion all about Ms. Maddow, Mr. Gregory thankfully cut off the tit-for-tat between them.  But offense on Medicare will be tough as Dan Balz pointed out because many Republicans aren't on board with Mr. Ryan due to political risk.  Chuck Todd outlined Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Florida as states with the most seniors and Republican congress people have to go back to those states and break the bad news about Medicare while trying to get re-elected at the same time.

It's certainly a 'new phase of the campaign,' where Mr. Romney has gotten a temporary reprieve from talking about Bain Capital and tax returns, but it will only last for a short time.  The verocity of the upcoming Democratic attacks against Mr. Ryan's economic plan that Dan Balz wondered about will be furious, and starting when?  Like right now.


Round Table:  MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow; NBC’s Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd; Editor of the National Review, Rich Lowry; the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, and author and radio talk show host Bill Bennett, for whom Ryan was a speechwriter while Bennett was Secretary of Education.