Sunday, March 04, 2012

3.14.12: Predicta-Inevitability

When Mr. Newt Gingrich begins to, what my mother would say, hem and haw toward the end of a question you know that what ever his answer is going to be it is going to start with a condemnation of the press, the 'elite media,' for being on the topic. In a way he is right in that now, the debate is about how the debate itself is being framed. The devolution occurred very quickly. However, you have to consider the source of the debate, Mr. Rush Limbaugh and his influence amongst the Republican party rank and file. It was a large voice from the Republican base that created the ugliness of this. And Mr. Gregory made sure to ask everyone on the program today what their thoughts were on Mr. Limbaugh's comments (which we're sure by now you know all too well). The sad reality of Mr. Limbaugh's show, if you listen to it, is that comments like his are bound to come out because he spends three hours a day, five days a week criticizing and ridiculing, but never once offering any solutions.

But here is where Mr. Gingrich is very wrong in his rhetoric. Of the statements that he could quote, he quoted the Catholic Bishops in saying, "The President is waging war against the Catholic Church," and he ran with it going further that this is the most radical move against the Catholic Church, which is hyperbole of the tallest order. Additionally, what's wrong with his rhetoric is his labeling of birth control as 'abortion pills.' It's a minor point, but still inappropriate. Where he really goes over the lie, is when he implies that the President is some secret Islamic sympathizer because he's 'waging war against Catholicism' at home, and apologizing to Muslims overseas (for the Koran burning incident with the U.S. Military). Congressman Cantor (R-VA), for his part during his interview, at least came out strong against the commentator's comments.

If the debate is framed in one of religious freedom instead of the moral compass and hence authority to speak out by the Catholic Church then we can talk, but if it's the latter then there needs to be another source of the outrage. [Yes, you can forgive, but forgetting is always something entirely different. The Catholic Church, frankly, has yet to fully atone for all its sins.]

Getting beyond all this... Rush Limbaugh, the Catholic Church, the outrage... If a Catholic Hospital doesn't want to fund birth control pills, for example, in their health insurance offering to employees, then according to what Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-FL) said today, the insurance company that they use assumes the burden of payment, instead of the religious institute. That's the compromise from the President, but it's still unacceptable.

If the insurance company is also a Catholic Institution, then we can see the objection, but if it's a private for-profit insurance company then fully comprehensive plans that include contraceptive health services should be offered. We could go on for columns and columns just listing the book titles about how there needs to be more compromise in our political system, but we need to do two things here: One, respect women's health rights first and foremost; and secondly, we need to get beyond this. Things like the Blount Amendment voted on this week in the Senate, which Ms. Wasserman-Schultz was rightly outraged by, go too far and it is no where near where the American people are on health care and religious/moral freedom. Being more concise - that amendment was just stupid.

In addition to Mr. Gingrich railing on the press, what also struck predictable was Congressman Eric Cantor's endorsement of Mitt Romney for President. Mr. Cantor, like Mitt Romney, is not a cultural warrior of the Rick Santorum stripe per se, but very fiscally conservative. Interpret that as you will. The understated Savannah Guthrie made the good point that Romney blew an opportunity to come out against Mr. Limbaugh's comments and by doing so appeal to independent voters which he has to start doing but hasn't because of a very messy primary. Mr. Romney clearly has no stomach for dealing with social issues despite what Mike Murphy says. Mr. Cantor also boldly predicted that Mr. Romney would win his state of Virginia where there are only two people on the ballot - Mr. Romney and Dr. Paul (Santorum and Gingrich both didn't make it). In Mr. Cantor's description of Mitt Romney's economic plan, he characterized it as pro-growth, pro-jobs, and went on to say it is because Mr. Romney knows how to do it. To that point, one could argue that in his time at Bain Capital, he created a net of 100,000 jobs. But the question has to be what are the quality of those jobs? Simply creating retail jobs means that middle class income will be unlikely to progress upward. This says nothing of his proposed tax policy, which would create even less revenue for the government and hence a larger deficit.

Mr. Cantor made the Romney-like argument with regard to the United States' energy policy. He said that the President will argue that oil production is at an all time high, but despite that the President is holding back permits for more drilling. The argument is thin because additional permits aren't going to lower oil, hence gas, prices. The United States is now exporting oil and prices have not come down so this nuance of restricting permits wouldn't really solve anything. The operative example for this debate is the Keystone Pipeline, for which Republicans advocating.

Congresswoman Wasserman-Schultz pointed out that it would take 45 years for the oil production from the pipeline to equal the same amount we would save under President Obama's policies. When one is speaking in projections, it's difficult to say how it will turn out so that reasoning is something to be considered but not taken as gospel. What was telling is that Ms. Wasserman-Schultz said the Republican Governor of Nebraska is one record as saying that more time and assessment is needed before proceeding with the pipeline. This is a fact so as it stands, somewhere in the Republican argument there is a disconnect between the ideological/political assessment for the pipeline and the practicality of it. Mr. Cantor said the President is hostile to fossil fuels, but instead we would contend that the President is seeing it simply as a finite source of energy.

Despite Mr. Cantor's assertions that Mitt Romney is the best man for the Presidency, the candidate is mired in a tough primary battle with Super Tuesday, primaries in 11 states, two days away. The reason it's been tough is the very reason why Mr. Cantor believes Mr. Romney should be the nominee, his economic policies. Rick Santorum is arguing that Mr. Romney's policies wouldn't be good for working-class Americans. This perception is reinforced by Mr. Romney himself with his numerous verbal gaffes - another Bain Capital Moment - 'a couple of Cadillacs.'

The remaining question is whether or not Mitt Romney will wrap up the Republican nomination this Tuesday. Ms. Guthrie also astutely pointed out that candidacies do not die a nature death these days, running out of money when you run out of support, because of Super PACs. This couple with Mark Halperin's assessment that if Mr. Romney loses Ohio, which is a very tight race right now, the primaries will go on.

Mike Murphy said that Mr. Romney is doing well with the delegates collected but his perception of winning primaries isn't great. We would contend that the opposite is true. Mr. Romney isn't doing as well as he should be with delegates. His perception of winning is good because he's been declared the winner in primaries and then it has ended up that he in fact lost the primary (Iowa) or his win is being contested by the other candidates (Michigan and Maine). Is the inevitability factor blinding the actual results? We predict that these discrepancies will continue to play a factor on Super Tuesday (or after it as the case may be) and that the Republican primary race will continue to slog on.



Round Table: Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, GOP strategist Mike Murphy, Time Magazine’s Mark Halperin, and NBC’s Savannah Guthrie.

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