Sunday, March 25, 2012

3.25.12: The Anguish and the Anger of a Natural Sin

Mr. Gregory said that the President seemed reluctant to take the lead in discussing race at this time in the aftermath of the tragic killing of Trayvon Martin in Sanford, FL. But David Plouffe, in his interview segment, said that the President's leadership has been profound. Really, he's stayed somewhat measured in his responses, as he's had to be, and he doesn't need to lead the conversation. The discussion, the way it's playing out in the public forum, is how the discussion needs to progress, and the President should weigh in and observe (as should Congress) about what the American people are saying - they are leading the discussion.

In response to something tragic, the nature first reaction is outrage, but more so anguish, as NPR's Michele Norris described it, because it has reinforced the existing reality of race relations in the United States of America, and specifically as Mr. Ben Jealous described it, African-American men being 'born suspect.' The anger will instill cause in individuals and the conversation will turn productive. It will happen, and we'll progress positively but it takes time. Mr. Jealous said he's already seen a coming together of the public.

As for the President's comments this week with regard to Trayvon Martin, of course it's going to touch him in profound way, he's an African-American and a father, he made a personal comment, and race is a component here. David Brooks described it as a nature sin, that we have to fight, and the only way to fight it is to bring it out in the open. We can not deny the reality so we find it distasteful for the Republican candidates for President, specifically Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, to say that President Obama has politicized this with his statements. Newt Gingrich went so far as to practically accuse the President of reverse-racism, that's disgraceful. Mr. Gingrich marginalizes himself from the conversation with such responses.

Moving on to another nature sin, the Obama Administration's energy policy has been 'cagey,' as Mr. Brooks described it. Mr. Obama has acted , in this area more so than all others, in a true political way, in that he's trying to make everyone happy and like what's he's doing. With his announcement of starting construction of the southern part of the keystone pipeline is the object example. This announcement is clearly aimed to placate his Republican opponents in an attempt to tamper down the rhetoric. All the while, he's also turning to his left and saying I'm holding that up for environmental concerns.

However, if the President doesn't announce plans to build the northern portion, even if it could devastate the environment, then what he has is the pipeline to nowhere. In other words, a political loser on both sides of the argument. With that said, the discussion in the media hasn't focused on at all on alternatives to the pipeline or on how we're building it. Are there any? It doesn't seem that way so it comes down to a do or don't do. Even though the pipeline won't be finished and producing until President Obama is significantly out of office, the call will have been his to make. He's not being completely honest with part of his base, and so that's the risk he takes politically, but we get it. He's trying to head off the politics of Keystone before he gets to the head to head with Mitt Romney, who Haley Barbour said is to be the nominee unless he steps on a landmine. (Even given the media downplaying of Rick Santorum winning big in the Louisiana primary yesterday.) Despite the reality that any President can not control gas prices, he's the one who gets blamed, and they all have thin skin on this issue, Mr. Obama being no exception. We guess what President Obama could say is that his policy on Keystone is just like one that Mitt Romney would agree with - I'm for the pipeline over here, but not over there, taking both sides.

Where the President will not, can not, should not play both sides is in the health care law debate. Right now, he is staying out of the argument while others make it in front of the Supreme Court this week. David Plouffe seemed confident that the Supreme Court would uphold the law, most probably calculating that the mostly conservative court could not possibly take the hit that they are partisan in their decisions, as it was perceived in the Citizens United case, and evident in the Bush vs. Gore decision.

We not going to underestimate the Supreme Courts capabilities in this case, they could very well repeal it, perception or no perception. What's funny is that Republicans are basically putting down what they in fact originally proposed, thanks to lefties like Bob Dole and Mitt Romney. Getting millions of more people into the market and potentially bringing costs down could be a bad thing. Our feeling is that Obamacare will be policy that years down the road will be one of those things, like Social Security, where everyone is saying, why wasn't this way before. Then is 40 more years, the whole thing will go haywire and we'll have to figure it out again.


Round table: Fmr. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (R); head of the NAACP, Ben Jealous; NPR’s Michele Norris; presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin; and the New York Times’ David Brooks.


Post: We commend Rachel Maddow for her engaging in the conversation, through her book Drift, about America's constant state of war and the military superstructure that exists. The notion of Americans being comfortable with it is worrisome at the very least even though 60% of of the people say that we should get out of Afghanistan. It renders us with no moral high ground that we as Americans like to occupy, but in even cold financial terms, we spend too much money on the military superstructure. That's not the troops, who we need to spend more on, but the industries, contractors, and lobbies that push an agenda. What makes us slightly hopeful is that for all this to change, the conversation has to start somewhere and this one is starting in the right places. Way on one political side, the left, is Rachel Maddow talking about it. On the other end is Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul. If you could get those two in the same room, on the same page talking about this, people would take notice.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

3.18.12: Connecting the Dots

Today's program was seemingly all over the map with discussions on the Republican Primary races, Super PACs, Afghanistan and the tragic act committed by Sgt. Robert Bales, the crisis in Syria, and finally the discussion of what is happening in the Sudan with George Clooney and John Prendergast. However, there are three consistently interwoven threads that connect them all and those are the United States, Russia, and China.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ), making his 64th appearance on Meet The Press, said point blank that Mitt Romney needs to do a better job campaigning if he wants the nomination. Mr. Romney, on the campaign trail, consistently speaks of increasing military spending so that there will be no question around the world as to which country has the most military power. But we already have that supremacy, 10-fold in fact. Rarely does he speak of diplomacy in solving the problems that the U.S. faces abroad. Diplomacy requires nuance and as evidenced on the campaign, this is something that Mr. Romney sorely lacks.

Mr. McCain is correct to complain about Super PACs, but you get what you pay for. In the case of Newt Gingrich's campaign, Sheldon Adelson funds his campaign on the promise that the United States will wage a war on Iran to protect Israel. In strict constructionist terms, the First Amendment guarantees free speech but does not designate the difference between a collective or an individual so technically the decision was correct, however, in practicality this decision is a disaster. It's created the nastiest campaign, to use the Senator's words, that he's ever seen. So will our foreign policy be dictated by the whims of a few? Senator McCain said that there would be scandals (with regard to Super PAC funding) and then we'll have to 're-legislate,' but really it's a 're-litigate.'

The Senator also stated that Iran would be dealt a crippling blow in its influence if the United States were to engage militarily with Syria, and given the evidence that Russia is supplying the Assad Government with arms, he concludes that we should arm the insurgents. In effect this will create another proxy war with Russia, which we can not afford. What would a President Romney do? Would he look into the soul of President Putin, as President Bush did, and conclude that we trust them? Russia is loving what is happening in Afghanistan with the United States being bogged down in a prolonged war in that country, seeing our finances and human resources stretched beyond capacity.

The good Senator said that we needed to be committed to victory in Afghanistan instead of consistently emphasizing withdrawal plans. However, if you listened to the round table discussion today, 'victory' is a murky proposition. Author John Krakauer deemed the counter-insurgency doomed to fail at the start. The point being that a military trained to fight can not win hearts and minds with the barrel of a gun. To buttress that, Ms. Cooper pointed out that the population does not feel safe with the presence of the U.S. Military in country. Of course this is punctuated by this latest tragedy of Sgt. Robert Bales' mass shooting of Afghan civilians. These realities, along with many others, should be the impetus for us to get out of country.

Paul Rieckhoff stated that at this moment the suicide rate among Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans is higher than the casualty rate among our soldiers. This is the direct product of too few fighting too much, over ten years of war and more than 200,000 traumatic brain injuries in ten years. So to Senator McCain, where's the victory in this? The panel threw around comparisons between Iraq and Afghanistan with some of the members pointing to the commonalities and others disagreeing. But here's how that stacks up given that we've executed a troop surge in both countries. The similarities are few. Afghanistan is no where near as stable as Iraq, and that's saying something. The Iraqis have had the sense of what a functioning government looks like and the network of bureaucracy that is needed to create stability. Also, a distinct difference between both counter-insurgency efforts is that in Afghanistan we are paying people whereas in Iraq we enriched people with money, and power. For dissident Iraqis there was the incentive of control. There is no sense of control in Afghanistan.

Mr. Gregory, in the interview segment with Senator McCain asked about the contraception law in Arizona that if passed would require women to inform their employers why they would want birth control. The Senator doesn't think that this will pass, and when asked about the Republican (clearly Republican initiated) 'War on Women,' he said that this needed to be fixed. What Mr. Gregory didn't point out is the distinct irony that in Afghanistan we're fighting for women's rights (Republicans advocating for continued/escalated fighting) while here at home Republicans are trying to take rights from women. Frankly, this is a disgrace.

Lastly, in addition to the human cost, our finances are so strained because of our extended wars, it renders the United States with little leverage in dealing with China, and in the example of today's program, the Sudan which Mr. Gregory discussed with George Clooney and John Prendergast. Though Mr. Clooney effectively puts it in financial terms, China has little incentive to do cooperative business with us because they can outbid and outspend the United States at every turn in the procuring natural resources [read: petroleum]. As long as the United States is engaged in protracted wars, Mr. Clooney will have to continue to solely rely on his celebrity because the U.S. government, though would like to have his back, can not afford it.


Round table: Author and Afghanistan War veteran Wes Moore; author of the bestselling book “Where Men Win Glory” about the death of Pat Tillman, Jon Krakauer; Founder and Executive Director of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Paul Rieckhoff; the Washington Post’s Bob Woodward; and the New York Times’ Helene Cooper.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

3.11.12: What Happened to 'God's Green Earth?'

All the talk about the delegate count and whether or not Newt Gingrich should get out of the race between Rick Santorum and Mr. Gregory this morning is a bit frivolous in as much as there's no telling at this moment where the Republican primary race is going to go. Mr. Santorum mentioned uncommitted delegates and super delegates that are still up in the air, but the fact of the matter is that the primary races have to play out and delegates are going to go with the proportional winners. As for Mr. Gingrich, and Mr. Santorum for that matter, there is no reason to get out of the race when you have the structure of financial backing that these two candidates have, which is to say that both of their campaigns rely on a single mega-donor, Sheldon Adelson and Foster Freiss respectively. In this new climate, candidates will ride all the way to the convention and then try to leverage their delegates for their own goals.

What we find ridiculous, and for Rick Santorum in particular, is the Senator's take on the President's energy policy, calling him the leader of a radical environmental movement in the United States, so much for God's Green Earth we guess. The rhetoric is on the Republicans' side, but the numbers and the reality is on the Democrats side. If you know nothing else, know that all the oil produced gets put onto the world market, a world market where the United States doesn't set the price Also, when you consider the fact that the United States produces 2% of the world's oil and uses over 20% of the world's supply then oil prices are going to be high. Also, high gas prices are completely relative. Gasoline in the United States is cheap comparatively to many industrialized countries around the world.

Americans were upset when the BP oil spill severely damaged the Gulf Coast, so why is it unacceptable when we take time to pause and evaluate the environmental effect on more drilling or an oil pipeline installation? Money drives judgment but every decision can not be made with respect to money. This may come as a shocker, but money doesn't fix everything, especially when it comes to the environment, just ask the Japanese. Opening up all the spigots right here, right now is not going to lower gas prices.

Mr. Santorum also mentioned regulations that are damaging business and getting in the way of it, and what he's talking about is the Dodd-Frank bill, which was created presumably so that we do not repeat the mess that we got into in 2008, which was driven by credit default swap where no one was held accountable at margin call. What Mr. Santorum is talking about is a regulation boogie-monster.

Lastly, and ever-present in an interview with Rick Santorum is the discussion of 'Obamacare,' which he sites as the overriding factor to his calling to run for President. Mr. Santorum says that 'Obamacare' would neglect his special needs child, and marginalize that child as unproductive and not worth the time. He continues that intrusive government is making that judgment,'government running people's lives' he said, and its unacceptable. However, at odds with this is Mr. Santorum's stance on women's reproductive rights.

Governor McDonnell, tactfully circumvented the question about the invasive procedure that his state legislature mandated within Virginia's new law that required an ultrasound for women seeking an abortion. Mr. Santorum is for this procedure, but as Mr. Gregory pointed out, this is a government mandate on a health issue. This leads to the biggest problem the Republican party has right now, and that is what conservative columnist Peggy Noonan deemed as a lack of respect toward women. She didn't specifically point the finger at anyone, but this misogyny against women, as she also termed it, is going to be the ruination of the Republican Party. The optics, the rhetoric and the policy initiatives are all at odds with the natural evolution of society in the United States. We could go into all the rhetorical angles illustrating why this is bad for the country, but frankly, and simply, men, only men, should not be making laws and about women's reproductive health, and the debate on contraception takes most Americans back to a time they can't remember. And you know why they can't remember that time? Because it doesn't make sense since they weren't even born yet.


MSNBC’s Al Sharpton, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Washington Post’s EJ Dionne, and the Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan


Postscript: During today's program, there was a report on a U.S. soldier in Kandahar, Afghanistan who left his post and shot 16 Afghan civilians, which included women and children. The bottom line is that the sooner we get out of this country (and end our warring) the better. Because of our military having to overextend itself, we've lowered recruiting standards, we've asked soldiers to do multiple tours - meaning years and years of war for each individual, and increased the stress level for our people and cemented resentment in their people.

The story of the Koran burning, on its face, was bad enough but there are stories that the Korans in question had been used to pass messages to plot against American soldiers. The books were defaced by their own proponents. However, this murder rapage, no matter how you would attempt to spin it, is the moment where we need to turn it all around and turn it back. It is not in our national interest to be there in these numbers anymore.

Sunday, March 04, 2012

3.14.12: Predicta-Inevitability

When Mr. Newt Gingrich begins to, what my mother would say, hem and haw toward the end of a question you know that what ever his answer is going to be it is going to start with a condemnation of the press, the 'elite media,' for being on the topic. In a way he is right in that now, the debate is about how the debate itself is being framed. The devolution occurred very quickly. However, you have to consider the source of the debate, Mr. Rush Limbaugh and his influence amongst the Republican party rank and file. It was a large voice from the Republican base that created the ugliness of this. And Mr. Gregory made sure to ask everyone on the program today what their thoughts were on Mr. Limbaugh's comments (which we're sure by now you know all too well). The sad reality of Mr. Limbaugh's show, if you listen to it, is that comments like his are bound to come out because he spends three hours a day, five days a week criticizing and ridiculing, but never once offering any solutions.

But here is where Mr. Gingrich is very wrong in his rhetoric. Of the statements that he could quote, he quoted the Catholic Bishops in saying, "The President is waging war against the Catholic Church," and he ran with it going further that this is the most radical move against the Catholic Church, which is hyperbole of the tallest order. Additionally, what's wrong with his rhetoric is his labeling of birth control as 'abortion pills.' It's a minor point, but still inappropriate. Where he really goes over the lie, is when he implies that the President is some secret Islamic sympathizer because he's 'waging war against Catholicism' at home, and apologizing to Muslims overseas (for the Koran burning incident with the U.S. Military). Congressman Cantor (R-VA), for his part during his interview, at least came out strong against the commentator's comments.

If the debate is framed in one of religious freedom instead of the moral compass and hence authority to speak out by the Catholic Church then we can talk, but if it's the latter then there needs to be another source of the outrage. [Yes, you can forgive, but forgetting is always something entirely different. The Catholic Church, frankly, has yet to fully atone for all its sins.]

Getting beyond all this... Rush Limbaugh, the Catholic Church, the outrage... If a Catholic Hospital doesn't want to fund birth control pills, for example, in their health insurance offering to employees, then according to what Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-FL) said today, the insurance company that they use assumes the burden of payment, instead of the religious institute. That's the compromise from the President, but it's still unacceptable.

If the insurance company is also a Catholic Institution, then we can see the objection, but if it's a private for-profit insurance company then fully comprehensive plans that include contraceptive health services should be offered. We could go on for columns and columns just listing the book titles about how there needs to be more compromise in our political system, but we need to do two things here: One, respect women's health rights first and foremost; and secondly, we need to get beyond this. Things like the Blount Amendment voted on this week in the Senate, which Ms. Wasserman-Schultz was rightly outraged by, go too far and it is no where near where the American people are on health care and religious/moral freedom. Being more concise - that amendment was just stupid.

In addition to Mr. Gingrich railing on the press, what also struck predictable was Congressman Eric Cantor's endorsement of Mitt Romney for President. Mr. Cantor, like Mitt Romney, is not a cultural warrior of the Rick Santorum stripe per se, but very fiscally conservative. Interpret that as you will. The understated Savannah Guthrie made the good point that Romney blew an opportunity to come out against Mr. Limbaugh's comments and by doing so appeal to independent voters which he has to start doing but hasn't because of a very messy primary. Mr. Romney clearly has no stomach for dealing with social issues despite what Mike Murphy says. Mr. Cantor also boldly predicted that Mr. Romney would win his state of Virginia where there are only two people on the ballot - Mr. Romney and Dr. Paul (Santorum and Gingrich both didn't make it). In Mr. Cantor's description of Mitt Romney's economic plan, he characterized it as pro-growth, pro-jobs, and went on to say it is because Mr. Romney knows how to do it. To that point, one could argue that in his time at Bain Capital, he created a net of 100,000 jobs. But the question has to be what are the quality of those jobs? Simply creating retail jobs means that middle class income will be unlikely to progress upward. This says nothing of his proposed tax policy, which would create even less revenue for the government and hence a larger deficit.

Mr. Cantor made the Romney-like argument with regard to the United States' energy policy. He said that the President will argue that oil production is at an all time high, but despite that the President is holding back permits for more drilling. The argument is thin because additional permits aren't going to lower oil, hence gas, prices. The United States is now exporting oil and prices have not come down so this nuance of restricting permits wouldn't really solve anything. The operative example for this debate is the Keystone Pipeline, for which Republicans advocating.

Congresswoman Wasserman-Schultz pointed out that it would take 45 years for the oil production from the pipeline to equal the same amount we would save under President Obama's policies. When one is speaking in projections, it's difficult to say how it will turn out so that reasoning is something to be considered but not taken as gospel. What was telling is that Ms. Wasserman-Schultz said the Republican Governor of Nebraska is one record as saying that more time and assessment is needed before proceeding with the pipeline. This is a fact so as it stands, somewhere in the Republican argument there is a disconnect between the ideological/political assessment for the pipeline and the practicality of it. Mr. Cantor said the President is hostile to fossil fuels, but instead we would contend that the President is seeing it simply as a finite source of energy.

Despite Mr. Cantor's assertions that Mitt Romney is the best man for the Presidency, the candidate is mired in a tough primary battle with Super Tuesday, primaries in 11 states, two days away. The reason it's been tough is the very reason why Mr. Cantor believes Mr. Romney should be the nominee, his economic policies. Rick Santorum is arguing that Mr. Romney's policies wouldn't be good for working-class Americans. This perception is reinforced by Mr. Romney himself with his numerous verbal gaffes - another Bain Capital Moment - 'a couple of Cadillacs.'

The remaining question is whether or not Mitt Romney will wrap up the Republican nomination this Tuesday. Ms. Guthrie also astutely pointed out that candidacies do not die a nature death these days, running out of money when you run out of support, because of Super PACs. This couple with Mark Halperin's assessment that if Mr. Romney loses Ohio, which is a very tight race right now, the primaries will go on.

Mike Murphy said that Mr. Romney is doing well with the delegates collected but his perception of winning primaries isn't great. We would contend that the opposite is true. Mr. Romney isn't doing as well as he should be with delegates. His perception of winning is good because he's been declared the winner in primaries and then it has ended up that he in fact lost the primary (Iowa) or his win is being contested by the other candidates (Michigan and Maine). Is the inevitability factor blinding the actual results? We predict that these discrepancies will continue to play a factor on Super Tuesday (or after it as the case may be) and that the Republican primary race will continue to slog on.



Round Table: Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, GOP strategist Mike Murphy, Time Magazine’s Mark Halperin, and NBC’s Savannah Guthrie.