Forty-eight hours before the Iowa Caucuses and Senator Rick Santorum is certainly measuring up in the Iowa polls sitting at 16 percent, and as David Brooks said today, he's definitely a better politician than he was when he lost his bid for Senatorial re-election in Pennsylvania. Mr. Santorum is finally getting his moment and the timing couldn't be better, but as Chuck Todd implored at the top of the program, he has to close the deal. The good news for Mr. Santorum is that in Iowa, since they are caucuses, you have the opportunity to do that.
With all that said, Mitt Romney is still at the top with 24% and Ron Paul sitting at 22 percent. Mr. Todd posed the question - is the Iowa Caucus going to be about who is most electable or who is the most consistent of a conservative. We tend to believe that it will indeed be a bit of both. Mr. Santorum will make the case well enough to finish second, and Ron Paul will disappoint because the swing isn't his way and he'll lose out big time with anyone who is outside his core hard core supporters. And for Newt Gingrich, there's no crying in Presidential politics. His weepy moment will not win the sympathy vote, and people never vote out of sympathy unless they're suckers. Rick Perry will be a wild card, but you have to conclude that Mr. Perry just doesn't bring enough substance to the table, even for Iowa evangelicals. We're not all too bold on predictions, but like we said, it is about a bit of both.
Mitt Romney is still not completely trustworthy among the Republican electorate as far as conservative credentials are concerned and will get the scare that Mark Halperin mentioned. If Rick Santorum does come in second and we were advising him, we'd high-tail it to New Hampshire for some campaign stops, give a speech in South Carolina on Thursday night and then get back on the stump in New Hampshire by Friday morning. To keep the momentum going, he has be top of mind in New Hampshire, but play hard for South Carolina where the conservatives will out-conservative the Iowa caucus.
And though, Mr. Santorum seemed to muddle his pro-life answer a bit on abortion exceptions, we agree with Mike Murphy that it will not damage his conservative position. However, what we found very newsworthy were his answers in terms of foreign policy, specifically with regard to Iran.
After saying that 'Iran will not have nuclear weapons on my watch,' and then pressed further by Mr. Gregory proposing air strikes, Mr. Santorum said yes. That's live from Iowa - essentially he issued a declaration of war against Iran. Make no mistake, attacking another country is a declaration of war, and if through legalise our system decides that it's not, it will most certainly be viewed as one by the Iranians. Mr. Santorum's foreign policy view reflects one that is religiously ideological in nature, at least when it comes the the Middle East. There can never be peace if the problems are only trying to be solved with such a narrow prism of options.
Mr. Santorum confirmed this position with his contradictory answer on Egypt and its revolution. He criticized the President for his lack of support of the Green Revolution in 2009 inside Iran and then his 'support' for the Muslim Brotherhood in taking control in Egypt following that country's successful revolution. And, in fact, Mr. Gregory called him on this, but the Muslim Brotherhood was democratically election in Egypt and if we support democracy we have to respect the outcomes of other countries' elections. However, based on ideology, Mr. Santorum disagrees. It just doesn't strike us as shrewd diplomacy, and frankly, it's reckless. In his five-point plan on how to deal with Iran, four of the five are what we are current doing, working with Israel and executing convert missions, but that fifth one makes a big, dangerous difference.
Mr. Santorum sees the Iowa Caucus this way - as three separate voter choices between the conservatives, the libertarians, and the establishment respectively. Regardless of that, the overriding message is that President Obama doesn't measure up as a leader, as the individual better suited than the eventual Republican nominee to guide the United States of America. This is the message that Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn repeated throughout his appearance (as he should if he's doing his job). Mr. Santorum tried to stay away from answering in terms of the other candidates in his interview segment, trying to focus on the President. This despite (unfortunately for him now) his 2008 endorsement of Mr. Romney as President, which definitely hurts his longevity in the race.
Mr. Gregory pointed to today's New York Times front page, on which it said that the Obama Campaign will focus its attacks on the Republicans in the House. This just says to us that The White House is going to essentially carry the campaign load for all Democrats in Congress, given the minority in the House and the weak majority in the Senate. They're certainly not measuring up with their overall approval rating in the dumpster, the Obama campaign sees this as its opportunity to make their case, which they definitely need to continue to make if Mr. Obama hopes to be re-elected.
Eventually, he'll have to run against someone, and by all indications, that some one looks to be Mitt Romney, despite his shortcomings as a Republican primary candidate. The question is, how far right will he have to end up going [and in essence the question the Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich posed with regard to how the Iowa Caucuses are viewed nationally] to survive and win in Iowa.
In this new year's infancy, we going to quickly see who's going to measure up.
Rountable: the Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich, GOP strategist Mike Murphy, the New York Times’ David Brooks, Time’s Mark Halperin, and NBC’s Andrea Mitchell.
Postscript: We found Mr. Santorum's dig at Chicago politics amusing when he likened the Egyptian election results to the way political outcomes occur in Chicago, seemingly what ever the vote. Not only is that now overblown as compared to other cities around the country, but as any sort of campaign tool to use against your Chicago-based opponent it's worthless.
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