Sunday, January 29, 2012

1.29.12: Candidates Making The Case... Against Each Other

Senator McCain called for the end of the debates as they are hurting the candidates and the Republican brand. Later in the program, Joe Scarborough concurred noting that all this in-fighting is damaging the Republican Party citing Sarah Palin comparing the Republican establishment to Stalin. Chuck Todd said, that they've made Gingrich not only unelectable but unacceptable. They Presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin said she hadn't seen it this bad in quite some time, but at least they don't have a song like the one they had for Van Buren. [That's what we love about Mrs. Goodwin, it's not that when she tells these things, she makes you feel like you were there, but that she was there.]

With that in mind, here we sit with the Florida primary two days away and it's Romney up significantly over Newt Gingrich. During the joint interview with Senator John McCain (R-AZ), surrogate for Mr. Romney and former Senator Fred Thompson representing Newt Gingrich. Even though Mr. Thompson was there to speak on his reasons for endorsing Newt Gingrich, something he said struck us that speaks to the heart of why Mr. Gingrich's viability as the nominee is problematic at the least. Mr. Thompson said that all these 'establishment' Republicans coming out against Mr. Gingrich are just trying to settle some political scores. And that's the problem, margin is calling now because Mr. Gingrich has been exceptional in alienating his fellow Republicans as Speaker of the House. Every politician does it to someone else at some time, but Mr. Gingrich it seems he does not do one of the fundamental pillars of politics and that is to make friends. His enemies are many, and on the program they pointed out a recent damaging quote from Senator Bob Dole, who stopped the Government shutdown in 1995 that Mr. Gingrich created.

Senator McCain, for his part, described the explosion in earmarking that as Speaker, Mr. Gingrich ushered in to being. By extension, Mr. McCain, showing some of his former Maverick ways, said that the Citizens United ruling showed a naivete on the part of the Supreme court (a prominent Republican calling out ideologically Republican Supreme Court judges). The Romney campaign combined with its advocating Super PACs are outspending the Gingrich campaign 5 to 1 in Florida, nearly 20 million dollars in total. Regardless, because of all of the different political pockets that is Florida, it is a Romney state as Mr. Scarborough declared, and he would certainly know. Romney will get the certain win in Florida, but as everyone on the program agreed with was that the Republican primary campaign will go on for a while to the summer. By the end of March, the Republicans will have a nominee, most probably Mr. Romney, and remember Mr. Gingrich isn't even on the Virginia ballot.

The battle between the 'establishment' and the Tea Party, as David Axelrod noted, could go on for a while and all of that obviously benefits the President. Mr. Gregory described the President's State of the Union address as the campaign kick-off speech. He's correct, but that shouldn't be what the address is used for and if indeed that is now what it is then they should go back to the written address, just put it online, we'll get to it.

Mr. Axelrod continued to make the case that the President laid out in that speech, which is not the deficit and debt, but the way in which we cut and pay it down. So yes, the President wants to change the tax code where the wealthiest pay more taxes. When the President says that he wants to make things more fair, give everyone a fair shake as Mr. Axelrod termed it, that would mean raising the capital gains tax, which is essentially money making money on investments, not wage earning like with most Americans. It's an effective argument because of the large numbers shown to the public, and case number one is Mitt Romney who made over $40 million dollars in the last two years and paid 13.9% in taxes. He didn't break the rules, as Mr. Axelrod noted, but that they should be more fair. [The inherent problem aside that dissertations are written on what 'fairness' means in America.] Mr. Axelrod, however, was wrong that the policies of the last decade were the cause of income decline amongst the middle class. It's actually the policies of the past thirty years.

Republicans such as Mr. Scarborough and Senator McCain say that the President should have listened to the Simpson-Bowles commission and taken up its recommendations. Here is where fairness should come into play, politically it's called compromise, and among the commission's recommendations were tax increases, which Republican lawmakers were contending. However, as the President and Mr. Axelrod are saying, manufacturing is returning to the United States, but we haven't gotten their candid explanation as to why. Is it because of the lack of unions in right-to-work states and low taxes? But then again why would they ever make the case for the Republicans. They certainly aren't making for themselves.


Roundtable: MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, & NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd.


The Jan Brewer Finger Point: The visual which is all over the internet and also discussed on today's program is beneficial to no one - it's the conclusion that no one in the media is coming to. The finger point occurred on the tarmac because President Obama voiced his exception to a passage in Governor Brewer's book, which described their meeting in a poor light after she had said publicly that the meeting went very well. It was petty on the part of the President and poorly judged not recognizing that Mrs. Brewer is a panderer to her base. However, for Governor Brewer's part, to point your finger at the President, otherwise known as the most powerful man in the world, is disrespecting the Office that Mr. Obama holds. And to later say that she felt threatened was disrespectful to the individual that holds it.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

1.22.12: A Fracturing Win for Newt

Was yesterday's 12 point win over Mitt Romney by Newt Gingrich a shift in the plates or just a barbaric South Carolina yawp in the wilderness of frustration that is the Republican primary season? The answer is that it's the latter that has a long echo, one that can and will be heard in Florida. Mitt Romney needs to get his act together, and put his mouth where all that money is.

The money will win out in the end, but it needs to be acutely directed by the candidates statements, and Newt Gingrich has Mitt Romney on the severe defensive. When Mr. Gingrich attacks Mitt Romney on trying to not really answer any questions with regard to his record or his time at Bain, Mr. Romney has no response, no counter. He'll release his tax returns on Tuesday putting the issue to rest of why he was reluctant to release them in the first place, but immediately they will be scrutinized essentially becoming a whole separate issue.

Mr. Gingrich explained that the message to be taken from his South Carolina win is that there is real pain that people are feeling economically and that there is a real anger with the national establishment. We'll give a touch of credit to Mr. Gingrich in as much as that he has been listening to the electorate and has realized their collective hardship in this economy, However, this real anger with the national establishment, as Mr. Gingrich puts it, is very much his anger with the news media and the Republican party establishment in New York and Washington.

The down side is that Mr. Gingrich's policies, if implemented, are not going to be beneficial for the people who he purports to have sympathy for. As Joe Scarborough put it during the round table, the politics of grievance that Mr. Gingrich practices is not going to be enough to win a general election. The divisive language that he's been spouting toward the President is going to turn off the general electorate. Mr. Gingrich invokes Saul Alinsky, the Chicago community organizer, recognized as the originator of modern community organizing (sourced from the Wikipedia entry). Mr. Gingrich fully well knows that when he throws out a reference like that where most of the people he's talking to don't know who that is, but the name sounds 'foreign,' he provoking a kind of xenophobia that doesn't really exist. It's a variation of the birther code type of attacks on the President. The Keystone Pipeline and Saul Alinsky have nothing to do with one another, but Mr. Gingrich will tie the two together to instill the hint of fear.

Every time Mr. Gingrich is asked a question that he doesn't like, he turns the tables saying that he's appalled at the news media. Case in point today was when Mr. Gregory asked him about Mr. Gingrich positioning himself as an outsider when he was a 'strategic adviser' for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, what some would perceive as a lobbyist. With the exception of not registering as a lobbyist, that's exactly what he did for the mortgage giant. Governor Chris Christie even called that the oldest dodge in the book. Mr. Scarborough repeated said during the program that Mr. Gingrich isn't even a conservative.

Today's panel seemed to believe that the Republican party was on it's way to a brokered convention or the rise of a third party candidate. With that in mind, Chuck Todd said that yesterday's result was not about Mr. Gingrich, but really about Mitt Romney, or more accurately what Mr. Romney needs to be to win. The fact of the matter is that none of these candidates have what it takes to win the general election. And Governor Christie, during his interview today, did not help Mr. Romney's cause.

Mr. Christie said that the people going to work at Sports Authority and Staples have Mr. Romney to thank for that. Well, guess what? The people going to work at the Sports Authority are the same people going to work at Staples. Individuals who work there need both jobs to pay their bills, put food on the table, and maybe, possibly send their kids to college. These are the middle class jobs that America aspires to as described by Mr. Christie? We don't think so.

The Republican party is one that is truly fractured and in particular a Newt Gingrich nomination is not going to heal it. He said today that the establishment made a mess of things and should be shaken up. It's obviously clear that Mr. Scarborough and Mr. Murphy ("couldn't win a swing state if it were made of feathers") are not siding with him and that's just the tip of the establishment. The morning show host went on to say that beside not being a conservative, Mr. Gingrich is an opportunist we ran out of the Speakership, also noting that he was fined $300,000 for ethics violations, the report for which should absolutely be released - what were those violations?

Despite Ron Paul saying in his post-South Carolina primary speech that winning delegates is the name of the game and it's a game he'll be in until the end, his followers may demand the break. Paul supporters already clearly know that the candidate is not given his due deference during the debates. Ordinary Republicans are really sure how to react to Mr. Paul's answers because they clearly do not fit in with Republican orthodoxy.

Newt Gingrich winning in South Carolina is good for only Newt Gingrich. The Republican establishment wants Mitt Romney, the electorate wants Newt Gingrich. Ultimately, the country will come to find that they want neither.


Rountable: Morning Joe's Joe Scarborough, the BBC's Katty Kay, Republican Strategist Mike Murphy, and NBC's Chuck Todd

Sunday, January 15, 2012

1.15.12: Value, Character, and Behavior

All the talk of the upcoming South Carolina primary aside, the one thing that is sticking with us from this week's program is the fact that when Mr. Gregory asked Senator Reid how to overcome at 66% disapproval rating, the Senate Majority couldn't come up with any solutions. He had nothing. He couldn't even cite a single piece of legislation going through Congress that has bi-partisan support. This is a big obvious problem that our government faces, and no one can come up with solutions?

Senator Reid squarely blames the Republican Tea Party caucus for this problem and said that he hopes that their influence will wane in the next year. You can tell that the mention of the Republican Tea Party makes Mr. Reid blood curl, a wince on his face. This column has no love for the Republican Tea Party caucus either. Contrary to what the Tea Party heads would say, it does not also consist of 'many Democrats and Independents.' It's a Republican movement and the minions of this movement do not understand that they vote against their own best interest. It's simply difficult to take that seriously. That, coupled with the extreme, uncompromising views of its representatives in Congress who continually put the government on the brink of shutting down is so counter productive for the whole of the populace.

Fortunately for us, we don't have to work with them - it's not our job. But Senator Reid needs to find a way to get things done with these people in the room, it is his job. Another part of his job for the Democrats is maintaining their majority in the Senate. With 23 Democratic seats up for re-election and 10 for the Republicans, Senator Reid said he felt pretty good about the Democrats holding. We would not be as optimistic about that or about Mr. Bob Kerry's chances of winning re-election in Nebraska if he decides to run again.

We agree with Mr. Reid in terms of the tax policy he discussed issuing a surtax of one half of one percent on the additional millions that people earn. Comparatively it's a small amount that could pay for a lot, even it goes directly to paying down the debt. We appreciate Mr. Reid pugilist heritage and hence his style, but he has to come up with more solutions.

On the South Carolina primary, Newt Gingrich seems pretty confident he can make a splash in the state hammering on the theme that he is a real conservative and that Governor Mitt Romney is a Massachusetts moderate. What we still find interesting about that is that Mr. Gingrich wants you to vote for him of course, but the way he phrases it, "do you want a real conservative or...," clearly denotes the 'anybody but Romney (and Ron Paul)' notion. It's so obvious, it's kind of hysterical. He further explained that the candidate that can craft a bold, clear distinction between himself and President Obama has a better chance of winning, a Reagan conservative, as he put it. The person whose policies have best reflected President Reagan's has been Barack Obama so there goes that argument. Of course the problem with Mr. Romney is that his of late extremely conservative rhetoric scares Reagan Democrats and Independents, and Republicans like it but don't believe it. So how's he in the lead? Money and organization.

To the second part of that - organization - everyone agrees, Mr. Gingrich, Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC), and Representative Tim Scott (R-SC) that the splintering of the evangelical vote amongst the other candidates benefits Romney, and his organization capitalizes on that. We, like other commentators, hope that Romney doesn't win in South Carolina because we'd just like to see the other primaries matter, but alas it will not be. Unless something big happens this week to negatively effect Romney's chances, he'll be hard to beat. And according to Lindsay Graham, South Carolina picks Presidents, referring to the fact that since 1980, every primary candidate who has won the state has also won the nomination. What he didn't say is who he endorses, and for that matter neither did Mr. Scott. Mr. Graham added that he might not even vote. We guess that they'll both just take the tact that the people of South Carolina have spoken and we'll endorse their choice. Frankly, that's... well... lame. The people of South Carolina look to these people for their insight and to abdicate the voice that people have bestowed on you does not speak well. Stand up for someone.

Mr. Gingrich mentioned that in selecting a candidate, it's about value, character, and behavior. None of today's guests unfortunately lived up to that measure in the answers. Mr. Gingrich with respect to attacks occupies no high ground than his primary opponents. That Mr. Reid repeated the phrase 'obstructionism on steroids' to make any point is disappointing. The South Carolina delegation essentially stating that they'll both respectively vote for anyone as long as they can beat Barack Obama says nothing for political conviction.

Lastly, Mr. Gregory and Mr. Reid discussed the recess appointment, technically proforma appointment, of Richard Cordray to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Congressional Republicans are saying that the appointment isn't valid because Congress never technically recessed, hence proforma. It's like being on call, but in this case there's no intention of returning even if the call comes, effectively a recess. Republicans simply do not like the newly formed Bureau in and of itself so they of course do not want to hold hearings. But the fact remains that the agency does exist, it was voted into being and now someone must head it. The void has existed for too long and now that the nominee is Richard Cordray, a Republican from Ohio, and not Elizabeth Warren, it's puts Senate Republicans in the awkward position of having to grill one of its own. Even thought, there seems to be no problem with that in the Republican presidential primaries. Shouldn't there be a procedure that when an agency, bureau, or cabinet position needs to be filled and the President nominates someone, there must be mandatory hearings held within a certain time frame? The appointment needed to be made.

Sunday, January 08, 2012

1.8.12: The Debate - Analysis and Impressions

It makes complete sense for Meet The Press to host a debate of this sort, given that it is at the top of the significance pecking order for news programs in general. Mr. Gregory, equipped with 30 extras minutes and two additional questionaires, effectively steered the questions back and forth from substantive (policy) to the provocative, from which we'll cover some of the more telling highlights.

However, no matter how you slice it, it was the run for second place as the five other candidates continually took aim at Mr. Romney - his positions and his record. Newt Gingrich initially sniped that the red light (stop signal for answering a question) didn't apply to the frontrunner and then took every opportunity he could find to take the Governor down a notch or three, leading into the New Hampshire primary, calling him a Massachusetts moderate and pointing out that Massachusetts had the 4th worst jobs record while he was governor.

And speaking of which, why didn't Mitt Romney run for re-election? His answer, not well presented, explained that he wasn't a career politician and that he came to Massachusetts to fix and problems and the get out. Every politician, at any level, wants a second term, maybe not a fifth or sixth, but definitely a second. He said that running for a second term would then be able him. Well, the selflessness is stunning... and unbelievable. And Even if you know you think you may not win, you still go after it unless you're not built to lead. Perhaps that is Mitt Romney. We now know it's not Sarah Palin. Mr. Gingrich surmised that the reason Mr. Romney isn't a career politician is because he lost. It is the more accurate assessment to be sure.

Most assuredly, the gloves did indeed come off in this last forum before the first primary. Mr. Santorum stated that Ron Paul has always operated on the margins, having sponsored over 600 bills with only one ever becoming a law, and therefore was not fit to lead in bringing a new tone to Washington and its dysfunctional ways.

Mr. Paul's views on citizens' rights sound idyllic in that he doesn't believe in designators of rights - gay rights, minority rights, affirmative action, civil rights and that we should just focus on the rights of liberty. However, practically, in this country, that doesn't work. This philosophy negates the Civil Rights Act of 1965, which was essential in the societal progress of the United States.

We take it on its face that the candidates are serious people and are serious about what they believe on how to lead the United States. However, among all these debates and this morning's Meet The Press debate was no exception, there is a thread of silliness running through them. It's comes through the continual contradicts.

For example, this morning, Governor Perry said that he was a 10th amendment guy - this is his more reasoned stance on secessionist comments he had made before entering the race - and that more decisions should be pushed to the state level. However, when asked about 'right to work' and the outlawing of mandatory union dues (essentially breaking them) should be a federal law.

Mr. Santorum said that the difference between North Korea and Pakistan having nuclear capabilities versus Iran having them and how we deal with these countries is that Iran is a theocracy. It is because of this and Iran's Islamic doctrine (his interpretation of it) that make air strikes a real necessity. Mr. Santorum says he's for an individual's rights, but does not agree with changing laws to reflect the recognition of a particular groups rights. The operative example from today's debate would be the rights and gays and lesbians to marry or adopt children.

Mr. Romney, in his defense or culpability in terms of Super PAC attack ads, said that of course friends of his run these organizations but that he hasn't viewed them. Then he recited specific points of one of the attack ads against Mr. Gingrich. It's utter silliness that that these candidates can stand on the stage and continually talk out both sides of their faces. More importantly, when challenged on his conservative credentials, Mr. Romney said that all you had to do was look at his record as Governor of Massachusetts. No one called him on this at the moment of statement that he was the steward of the state's successful single payer health program.

And straight up, what kind of message did Mr. Romney send to general election voters when he said that he wouldn't have a federal government that would try to end poverty in the country? There's a reason why populist statement are called what they are. It's because the population agrees with them. By saying this, Mr. Romney doesn't fulfill a societal need in terms of being Americans, that we're all in this together and hence problems need to be solved this way.

This plays into our last example when Mr. Romney said to Jon Huntsman that the person representing the Republican party shouldn't have called President Obama a remarkable leader. To this, Mr. Huntsman directed his answer to the moderator and said, "Our country is divided, David, because of attitudes like that [*full exchange below]."

Of course this doesn't fit with the other previously cited examples because Mr. Huntsman spoke to a notion that somehow in today's Republican party is in direct contradiction to what to what they believe. It won't be surprising that Mr. Huntsman, despite staking his campaign on the New Hampshire primary, is going to get creamed on Tuesday.


*
FMR. GOV. ROMNEY: I think we serve our country first by standing for people who believe in conservative principles and doing everything in our power to promote an agenda that does not include President Obama's agenda. I think the decision to go and work for President Obama is one which you took. I don't, don't disrespect your decision to do that. I just think it's most likely that the person who should represent our party running against President Obama is not someone who called him a remarkable leader and went to be his ambassador in China.

FMR. GOV. HUNTSMAN: This nation is divided, David, because of attitudes like that. The American people are tired of the partisan division. They have had enough. There is no trust left among the American people and the institutions of power and among the American people and our elected officials.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

1.1.12: Measuring Up (The Iowa Caucuses)

Forty-eight hours before the Iowa Caucuses and Senator Rick Santorum is certainly measuring up in the Iowa polls sitting at 16 percent, and as David Brooks said today, he's definitely a better politician than he was when he lost his bid for Senatorial re-election in Pennsylvania. Mr. Santorum is finally getting his moment and the timing couldn't be better, but as Chuck Todd implored at the top of the program, he has to close the deal. The good news for Mr. Santorum is that in Iowa, since they are caucuses, you have the opportunity to do that.

With all that said, Mitt Romney is still at the top with 24% and Ron Paul sitting at 22 percent. Mr. Todd posed the question - is the Iowa Caucus going to be about who is most electable or who is the most consistent of a conservative. We tend to believe that it will indeed be a bit of both. Mr. Santorum will make the case well enough to finish second, and Ron Paul will disappoint because the swing isn't his way and he'll lose out big time with anyone who is outside his core hard core supporters. And for Newt Gingrich, there's no crying in Presidential politics. His weepy moment will not win the sympathy vote, and people never vote out of sympathy unless they're suckers. Rick Perry will be a wild card, but you have to conclude that Mr. Perry just doesn't bring enough substance to the table, even for Iowa evangelicals. We're not all too bold on predictions, but like we said, it is about a bit of both.

Mitt Romney is still not completely trustworthy among the Republican electorate as far as conservative credentials are concerned and will get the scare that Mark Halperin mentioned. If Rick Santorum does come in second and we were advising him, we'd high-tail it to New Hampshire for some campaign stops, give a speech in South Carolina on Thursday night and then get back on the stump in New Hampshire by Friday morning. To keep the momentum going, he has be top of mind in New Hampshire, but play hard for South Carolina where the conservatives will out-conservative the Iowa caucus.

And though, Mr. Santorum seemed to muddle his pro-life answer a bit on abortion exceptions, we agree with Mike Murphy that it will not damage his conservative position. However, what we found very newsworthy were his answers in terms of foreign policy, specifically with regard to Iran.

After saying that 'Iran will not have nuclear weapons on my watch,' and then pressed further by Mr. Gregory proposing air strikes, Mr. Santorum said yes. That's live from Iowa - essentially he issued a declaration of war against Iran. Make no mistake, attacking another country is a declaration of war, and if through legalise our system decides that it's not, it will most certainly be viewed as one by the Iranians. Mr. Santorum's foreign policy view reflects one that is religiously ideological in nature, at least when it comes the the Middle East. There can never be peace if the problems are only trying to be solved with such a narrow prism of options.

Mr. Santorum confirmed this position with his contradictory answer on Egypt and its revolution. He criticized the President for his lack of support of the Green Revolution in 2009 inside Iran and then his 'support' for the Muslim Brotherhood in taking control in Egypt following that country's successful revolution. And, in fact, Mr. Gregory called him on this, but the Muslim Brotherhood was democratically election in Egypt and if we support democracy we have to respect the outcomes of other countries' elections. However, based on ideology, Mr. Santorum disagrees. It just doesn't strike us as shrewd diplomacy, and frankly, it's reckless. In his five-point plan on how to deal with Iran, four of the five are what we are current doing, working with Israel and executing convert missions, but that fifth one makes a big, dangerous difference.

Mr. Santorum sees the Iowa Caucus this way - as three separate voter choices between the conservatives, the libertarians, and the establishment respectively. Regardless of that, the overriding message is that President Obama doesn't measure up as a leader, as the individual better suited than the eventual Republican nominee to guide the United States of America. This is the message that Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn repeated throughout his appearance (as he should if he's doing his job). Mr. Santorum tried to stay away from answering in terms of the other candidates in his interview segment, trying to focus on the President. This despite (unfortunately for him now) his 2008 endorsement of Mr. Romney as President, which definitely hurts his longevity in the race.

Mr. Gregory pointed to today's New York Times front page, on which it said that the Obama Campaign will focus its attacks on the Republicans in the House. This just says to us that The White House is going to essentially carry the campaign load for all Democrats in Congress, given the minority in the House and the weak majority in the Senate. They're certainly not measuring up with their overall approval rating in the dumpster, the Obama campaign sees this as its opportunity to make their case, which they definitely need to continue to make if Mr. Obama hopes to be re-elected.

Eventually, he'll have to run against someone, and by all indications, that some one looks to be Mitt Romney, despite his shortcomings as a Republican primary candidate. The question is, how far right will he have to end up going [and in essence the question the Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich posed with regard to how the Iowa Caucuses are viewed nationally] to survive and win in Iowa.

In this new year's infancy, we going to quickly see who's going to measure up.


Rountable: the Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich, GOP strategist Mike Murphy, the New York Times’ David Brooks, Time’s Mark Halperin, and NBC’s Andrea Mitchell.


Postscript: We found Mr. Santorum's dig at Chicago politics amusing when he likened the Egyptian election results to the way political outcomes occur in Chicago, seemingly what ever the vote. Not only is that now overblown as compared to other cities around the country, but as any sort of campaign tool to use against your Chicago-based opponent it's worthless.