Sunday, May 08, 2011

5.8.11: No Myths, Just Man

Pakistan is a terrorist state. In light of The United States conducting a successful raid on a compound in Pakistan, in which Osama Bin Laden was killed, one would have to conclude that Pakistan is in bed with terrorists.. according to the Bush Doctrine that is. How could Pakistani officials, at least some, not have know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in plain site in an affluent suburb of Islamabad. Some surely did, but we think that most didn't and that's actually a more frightening fact. Remember that this country is one that has nuclear weapons and the incompetence is incredibly worrisome. 'Smug' is the word that Bob Woodward used to describe it during the round table, like giveing the middle finger to The United States he said.

And as the White House National Security Advisor, Tom Donilon, explained, Bin Laden was still calling the shots and was still involved operationally with Al Qaeda terror plots. He also repeated one of the most obvious talking points that though this is a milestone, it is not a death blow to the terror organization. Polls show that over 60% of Americans get that as they are worried about short-term terrorism. Mayor Giuliani, who this column doesn't understand why he would be on with terror experts because he is not, did remind us that Al Qaeda is a decentralized organization. Perhaps the Obama Administration thinks differently as two days after we announced the death of Bin Laden, we executed a Predator drone attack in Yemen in an attempt to oust the operational leader for Al Qaeda, American-born Anwar al-Awlaki, on the Arabian Peninsula.

But getting back to Pakistan for a moment - this is a real problem. Just the fact that a foreign power went in and out of that country without the government not even knowing is another one of many examples of how insecure Pakistan is. Mr. Donilon did say that they did not inform the Pakistani government citing 'operational security.' Given the Pakistani government's track record, why would anyone question that? They do have Bin Laden's three wives in custody, but you would have to presume they knew very little with regard to intelligence, with the exception of how he may have communicated with others.

The real intelligence is in the hands of The United States government, the single biggest score of information taken in any terror raid, no question this was the proverbial mother-load. Former CIA Director General Michael Hayden used the term SSE - Sensitive Site Exploitation, (We love our government's acronyms.) and that's exactly what it was. The intelligence gathered exploits the false myth of Osama Bin Laden, as we know from the release of video clips found in computers on site. Mr. Gregory's quip made the good point that it shows that we were, in fact, there. They show, that like all nihilistic leaders, he had a streak of vanity as he channel surfer footage of himself on a television. We learned that he also died his beard for video presentations. All human beings whether jihadists or Presidents or beggars contain the capacity for ego, violent emotion, detachment, and boredom.

Also discussed on the program, as has been throughout the week, was the role Enhanced Interrogation Techniques to extract the information that lead us to Bin Laden. Mr. Donilon wouldn't bite on Mr. Gregory's question as to whether it could be definitely said that E.I.T.s (torture) played a part. The moderator sited The Washington Post's columnist Charles Krauthammer that this is vindication for the Bush Administration who employed torture. Mr. Giuliani said that even though you couldn't say with absolute certainty, he believes that torture did play a significant role in extracting the information that lead to Bin Laden. On the latter, well who is to say whether it was effective or not, but vindication is out of the question. Citing Rumsfeld, waterboarding was a successful program. Again, out of the question - how is torture ever success. As Mr. Donilon said, thousands of pieces of information were used, an effort that goes across two administrations. The culmination is the photograph below, despite the 50-50 on the intelligence, was the 100% confidence that President Obama had in the Navy Seals.

President Barack Obama and his national security team watch updates on the mission to capture Osama bin Laden on Sunday.

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So what does all this mean - the fun political part of it? Republican Strategist, Mike Murphy, said that the President deserves a lot of credit, a 'huge victory.' As Presidential Historian Doris Kearns-Goodwin pointed out, that the Administration should let hubris get in the way when it comes to re-election, citing the example of how George Bush Sr.'s approval rating after the first Iraq war was at 90%, but 'Read my lips, no new taxes,' translated into a single term Presidency.

Bob Woodward proposed that if the President could translate this decisiveness on foreign affairs to domestic economic issues then Mr. Obama would be very difficult to beat. But that's a tough proposition - an operation like the one on Bin Laden is something that can be unilaterally done by the President. Matters of the budget and spending are a different thing entirely. And Mr. Murphy is correct when he reminds us that the election is going to be all about jobs, a subject that oddly enough his Republican party hasn't hammered the Democrats effectively enough on.

Everyone on the panel seemed to agree that the President is vulnerable on the economy, and that's where the debate has to go. Right now, and yes a lot could change in the time leading up to the election, foreign policy is, as the Republicans say, off the table. There is no Republican candidate, potential or declared, that has the equivalent credentials or achievement as the President now has. That certainly includes Mr. Giuliani who did say that he was considering another run for the Presidency, a fool's errand we believe on his part, which was corroborated by Mr. Murphy who said that Mr. Giuliani would not get the nomination.

Mr. Woodward said that Presidential election are run on character. In his decisiveness, President Obama showed the type that it takes to lead this country. However, that's not to say that our confidence should be blind, not in the least. It's the pressure of scrutiny that either makes some one perform better or worse in a moment. And in this particular moment, as Ms. Goodwin said, Mr. Obama may have taken control of his Presidency.

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