On Super Bowl Sunday, we must say that next football season can not come fast enough... for Egypt, which is when they will hold what most of the world hopes will be a free election in September. The list of demands from the opposition that NBC's Richard Engel rattled off at the top of today's program are going to be met with a lot of resistance from the Mubarak regime. The most significant of the demands being the end of martial law in the country for the last 30 years... a de facto releasing of the people.
The coverage of all the events in Egypt has been incredibly compelling, among other adjectives, so it was essential, and of the caliber of Meet The Press, to get the perspectives of two key up-front sources - Mohamed El Baradei and Egypt’s ambassador to the U.S., Sameh Shoukry.
We must first say that the Ambassador looked shell-shocked. Talk about a guy on the outside looking in, not knowing what his personal future will be. When Mr. Gregory pressed him on whether or not there is a new reality in his country, there was nothing he could say except that yes, there is. Though he did his regime approved diplomatic duty in denying that the 'goon squads,' as Mr. Gregory called them, were not sponsored by the Mubarak government. It was a last ditch effort by an authoritarian government who after 30 years was overwhelmed by its people.
Dr. El Baradei, who you may remember prior to this as a nuclear weapons inspector, pointed out the many concerns that the protesters have because from their perspective, they are probably in a state of disbelief that all this is actually happening. The transition is being managed by the regime so there is a lack of confidence in the government to be cooperative in the process. Dr. El Baradei also believes that Egypt can evolve into a democracy as India did, using his example, and he believes that peace and stability for the region 'starts and ends' with the democratic process. Lastly, and significantly he said that he assumed Egypt's peace treaty with Israel will continue, but he as most other Arabs believe there should be an independent Palestinian state.
This is where the U.S. comes in, and Senator John Kerry, on the program today, was correct when he said that ultimately all of this is up to the Egyptian people. Egypt's future is not for the United States to make. We can take a position, which the Obama Administration has and Senator Kerry reiterated on the program, "Let's be crystal clear, The President wants change immediately. Step aside gracefully to a caretaker government." The newly appointed Vice President of Egypt, Omar Suleiman, is doing that but it will only be genuine if opposition leaders are present. And that's the problem right now, who are the opposition leaders? We hear of the Muslim Brotherhood, and some commentators in this country are using them to stoke fear. This column isn't saying that we like the Muslim Brotherhood in any way, but more like... let's not live in fear of what hasn't yet happened. Egypt will determine it's own future. And speaking of that future, once there is a government in place and things stabilize into a new Egypt, the Israeli treaty will come up.
Here's what will happen, Egypt will use it as leverage for a two-state solution for the Palestinians and the Israelis. Egypt will want to establish a new Palestinian state as a partner in commerce, and with the United States involved, a resolution will occur. Two things will happen in the meantime, one predictable and one not so much. One, Prime Minister Netanyahu will not be leading Israel, and secondly, there will be more change in the Middle East. It will not happen in Iran so look to either Syria or Lebanon.
But for now, and James Baker, on the panel today, agreed that President Mubarak must be clear about the time table and the process by which the transition will occur. Our confidence resides, frankly, in Secretary of State Clinton who has been, rightly, in control of the U.S. messaging - one diplomatic envoy aside who was immediately recalled for saying that Mubarak should stay in power for now. Secretary Clinton was decisive in relieving him, and exhibited a firm grasp of the situation.
But as Mr. Gregory asked, are we romanticizing the situation of change in the Middle East? Mr. Baker said the jury's still out. Let's not romanticize the situation or conjure fear with respect to it - only eyes wide open and adapt quickly to the situation is the best plan.
Lastly, Ronald Reagan would have said that the United States would stand as a 'beacon of freedom,' Peggy Noonan said. On the 100th anniversary of Ronald Reagan's birth, we should keep a few things in mind about the 40th President. Today's Republicans name-check him so much because they aspire to be like him. But they will never be, because Ronald Reagan could work across party lines and he had appeal to a greater swath of the public then anyone Republican today. As James Baker clearly said, "he practiced bi-partisanship."
But like Egypt, let's not romanticize about Ronald Reagan. He said that 'government is the problem.' Granted he didn't mean that in every instance, but it has been twisted that way. And the debt and deficits that we face that Republicans today rail against were directly set in motion by the Reagan Administration, among other things of course.
And lastly lastly... we like the Steelers, but it's Green Bay's day: 28-24 Packers
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