We'd prefer that today's program didn't start as if it were an episode of 60 Minutes and we'd like to think that viewers of Meet The Press would not need the contextual primer before the actual interview, but at least Mr. Gregory didn't over do it. Throughout the program, we gleaned a few important statements from General Petraeus, but most of the program kept repeatedly reiterating one big fact: The success of the U.S. mission there is in complete doubt and no one seems to know how this, the longest war in our history, will turn out.
Politically, troops are scheduled to start rotating back home in July of next year, but the general made it clear that that would depend on the situation on the ground, in which he is seeing 'small pockets of progress.' For a war going into its tenth year, small pockets of progress mean almost nothing. General Petraeus consistently tried to keep the context within a timeframe of the last 18 months, which is interesting because though he says that his decisions have nothing to do with politics, he focuses on from when the new Administration came into office.
Conditions on the ground will dictate the timetable for a responsible drawn... well, that's at least the idea. Then again General Petraeus said that it will take a substantial, enduring commitment. The beginning of a troop withdrawal by next July seems unlikely, but the general did say that approximately 2,000 troops would be going home. 2,000? There are 100,000 in country so that 2% number is simply a token.
From where we sit, the one somewhat positive conclusion we can glean is that Al Qaeda and the Taliban elements supporting them are being disrupted in a major way in the region. Whether the Pakistani government is doing enough is anyone's guess, but the conflict has been pretty much regionalized. Al Qaeda is pretty much gone and has taken off for the mountains of Yemen - the next front and a conversation for a different time.
The other significant topic during the program today is the state of the Karzai Government in Afghanistan. We've heard tales of corruption in the press and to confirm it, Ambassador Karl Eikenberry said it's running rampant. Ironically, General Petraeus has to take the more diplomatic route saying that the U.S. and President Karzai have a strong relationship in that the two parties can have a frank discussion and don't necesssarily always agree. calling him a 'strong partner.' Despite disagreements, the dialogue remains open. We believe that President Karzai, who says that Afghanistan could be the new silk road with all it's mineral deposits, is playing the same waiting game that the Taliban are but for different reasons. Without an American presence, the Karzai Government would not be a democratic one, this much is for certain. They would leverage the mineral wealth to control the country, and would probably be content not controlling all of it, just the land masses that matter money-wise.
One thing is for sure, at the end of the hour we still simply know one thing: we don't know how long the longest campaign will be in the long war.
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