Sunday, March 29, 2009

3.29.09: Two Voices

It is guests and intentions as shown on today's Meet The Press that make the program what it is - the news program of record. Today's format brings out the best in the guests and the moderator. At this moment, interviewing Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is more important than speaking with The President, and that's who Executive Producer, Betsy Fischer, put on today. The other singular voice for the entire second half of the show come from Senator John McCain (R-AZ).

A major critique of Mr. Geithner is that he doesn't instill confidence when he speaks publicly. The hammer came down so hard at one point, that some are still calling for his head. This column doesn't feel that this kind of articulation is a high priority on the prerequisite list for the job. Just look at Henry Paulson; he sounded like he knew what he was doing. The classic con man, schemes us into doling out a ton of dough and then splits the scene leaving the rest to hold the bag and wonder, 'what just happened?' Most people didn't even know his name until about a month and a half before he was to leave the post.

Mr. Geithner's statements are quite measured; he doesn't use many extraneous words; his head dips below his shoulders when making a difficult point. However, despite the opinions of Paul Krugman and others, he does have conviction in what he's doing as a real solution. Good or bad, Mr. Geithner doesn't strike as a cynic, completely cognizant of the situation. He sometimes looks as though he's at the breaking point of being overwhelmed, but that can be good as it does not afford him the posture in which he can lie to the public. However, Mr. Gregory pointed out a very valid and big concern that many of the positions in the Treasury have yet to be filled. This is troubling because multiple voices and hands are needed for our financial problems, a consolidation of thinking leads to narrow ideology, which is detrimental. You can sight the Bush Administration's approach to the War on Terror as the operational example of where such ideology leads to and the end results. By filling the positions, the benefits are instantly a 'two-for.' You get more people to help and you calm others that there are other voices in the room. Lastly, it's a sad commentary that the Administration feels they can't find enough top-tier people to fill the posts who haven't sufficiently remained untainted by the financial industry.

Lastly, the Secretary stated today that he sees the economy and financial industry fundamentally changing, and it's going to one way or the other. It's how we want to see it changed... This is cause for action, in which the Treasury has no choice. The main debate on how to act is between the Administration and the economists. The Republicans are fringe in the economic theater, offering no real plan of long-term action, a voice sans amplification.

With that in mind, Senator McCain should still be speaking for the Republican party now, until the rest of the party can get its act together with solid reasonable new leaders and policies to go with them. Upon their respective introductions to the public as the new Republican faces, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) and Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) have failed miserably in trying to instill any confidence. Tradition would dictate that the vanquished take a step to the back so that a new energy can be realized, but let's face it, right now these new Republicans are bad energy policy. How bad? We're saying that it is a good idea for John McCain to still lead the party right now - that says it all.

However, it is because he can take a step back that his opinion is more rational and practical to reality. For example, he agrees with the Obama Administration on its Afghanistan policy. In fact, he advised today that the President should have been even more candid about the casualties and the length of time we would be there. Southern Afghanistan is for all intents and purposes under Taliban control. They now serve as as the de facto guard to the boarder region where Al Qaeda resides and operates. We're tepidly reassured because the administration understands this and making it the top priority. If it isn't, sadly we could be marking another date on our calendar.

Mr. McCain has not abandoned his style of sedated bluster completely. On the economy, he has honed his canned phrases and obviously schooled himself a bit better, but when a Republican... any Republican... talks about generational theft when discussing Mr. Obama's budget proposal, it disqualifies that person as a leadership voice on the issue. This exactly what Senator McCain did today. He, personally, could argue his points with regard to Bush policy and the past eight years, but what about the others? He was making a run for the Presidency; he could have been more vocal and persuasive if he disagreed so vehemently on all the reckless spending. With a $10 Trillion debt in the rearview mirror, some hindsight has to be 20-20, right?

The Arizona Senator also called out what he perceived to be a lack of transparency and accountability by the administration on how the money is being spent. Even though this column made the point that Mr. McCain should still speak for his party, we are not saying that we agree with his positions or have confidence in all his statements. This is the new America... we're realizing we can not have everything.



Postscript: We found it amusing how Senator McCain responded to Mr. Gregory's question of endorsing Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AL). First, he completely backed away from any endorsement, didn't commit to supporting her, and said he would like to 'see her compete.' Who's kidding who?

Sunday, March 15, 2009

3.15.09: The Republican Mouthpiece?

When the Representative Eric Kantor (R-VA) says that of course Republicans could have done a better job during the Bush years when it came to spending (as he did on today's MTP), it's enough to make you rip the television from the wall. There's been a lot of talk this week about who's to blame for the financial crisis, and while most people prefer to say, "let's just move on," which is what we should do, but these types of dismissive statements by Republicans and the casual attempts to rewrite history are unacceptable. Later in today's program Katty Kay from the BBC echoed the collective indignation by pointing out that with the exception of tax cuts, the Republicans haven't offered one solid strategy to tackle the crisis. Mr. Kantor needed to step up today, but Republicans still need to establish their mouthpiece - he's not it.

It's seems like a no-win situation for the Obama situation - economists are saying that the stimulus is too small to be effective and Republicans are trying to generate a public dialogue that there is too much money being spent. It would seem... However, everyone knows what the reality is. The Government has to spend the money and more of it than they have already.

Now, before we get to ahead of ourselves, today's first guest was the Chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers Dr. Christina Romer. Even though she's the chair, the public doesn't know too much about her so a thoughtful discussion was of the highest priority. Unfortunately, Mr. Gregory didn't get there. He asked her about the difference of rhetoric between Mr. Obama this week and John McCain during the campaign - to clarify 'the fundamentals of the economy are strong.' More time was wasted when he asked about Treasury Staffing. He justified the question by saying Wall Street is nervous about the staff vacancies and that it doesn't demonstrate confidence. The fact remains that it is a sad commentary that they can not find enough highly qualified people to fill those slots because of financial conflicts of interest.

By the time Mr. Gregory came to the real substance of the interview, asking about how the Obama Administration will address all the corporate toxic assets, all Ms. Romer could say is that the administration will be announcing a plan this week. He didn't have time to fully understand her insights into the crisis. Just a weak attempt at the end - what's the responsible thing for consumers at this time.

This takes us almost full circle. She said the President is going to announce a plan this week and then in the very next segment, Rep. Kantor says asks when he's going to see a plan from the administration. He also continued the weak Republican arguments that Mr. Obama has a lack of focus by taking on too many things at once and that there is too much spending. This is where it all completely falls apart for the Republicans because there was an obscene amount of deficit spending under the Bush Administration. When confronted with this Mr. Kantor used the Republican/Bush Administration consummate third rail - the troops. We increased the national debt for the troops - if only that were the case. The military budget has always resided outside of the annual budget... It makes one think about how $9 billion in cash was lost in Iraq.

During the panel discussion, which also included CNBC's Steve Liesman, PBS's Tavis Smiley, the aforementioned Ms. Kay, David Frum, who worked in the Bush Administration, was saying that there should be more domestic spending and that there needs to be global stimulus. Later in the program, with reference to Republican Party Chair Michael Steele's interview in GQ Magazine and his stating that abortion is an individual choice, Mr. Frum stated that this perspective should be included in the Republican platform dialogue. This illustrates that there are some Republican thinkers who see the writing on the wall when it comes to hot-button issues and where the attitude of the American people is.

Sunday, March 08, 2009

3.8.09: See What Sticks

So if your looking for any little bit of a piece of a slice of good news, take heart in the fact that today's first two guests, Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY), can identify clearly the problems we're facing. Part of recovering is first understanding what the problems are. Yes, that's a great stretch but we have to start somewhere. Here's where it all collapses. Senator Graham accurately stated that the key is to get credit flowing again and then said that no amount of money printed by the Federal Government is going to solve this. That is where he logic comes up short because the banks, who have no confidence in the economy, do not have any money to lend to get credit flowing. Where is the only place the banks are going to get that money? It's from the government. graham says getting credit flowing is key - no amount of money printed in washington is going to solve this. When are Republicans going to come to grips with the fact that no one, and we mean no one, has ready liquid assets, with the exception of the government. This what those three Republicans Senators that voted for the stimulus bill conclude.

And the stimulus should have been an even larger number... The numbers are so fictitious that our imaginations haven't caught up to what it will actually take. Senator Schumer did touch on the fact that most economists feel that more money is needed, but that the Democrats couldn't get more because of the political wall they ran into. To that point, Former Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich stated later in today's program that we must break the system in a bi-partisan way. And though he said that has to happen on both sides of the aisle, it looked as though a visible pensive (a posture we do not recall ever seeing) Speaker Gingrich pointed this more toward his own party. He followed this up with saying the it is irrational to not want the President to succeed (you know the rest of that story...).

With that said, we do agree with Senator Graham when he said that we can not keep throwing good money after bad. To stop that, the government has to go to these few too-big-to-fail entities and figure out one number, AIG for example. Figure out a number to get it back on its feet. If the executives can't make it work at that point, take break the assets and break up the company into many smaller ones with the prospect of redistributing that targeted TARP money.

All the above is in concern with private enterprise, but what about public enterprise? That's where the new spending bill comes in along with the ever-roaring debate about earmarks. Yes, of course, MTP had a clip of Senator McCain at the ready, who incidentally called out Senator Graham for an earmark, and it's important to know what that earmark is. Senator Graham said it was for a convention center in Myrtle Beach. Think about that for a moment... Is that wasteful spending or is it a construction project that will bring jobs and potentially facilitate greater commerce in hard hit vacation area, hence helping the state itself generate more revenue? Senator Graham said he was going to continue to fight to leave it in the bill. Remember, right now only the government has the money to make that happen. If it is any consolation, all of the 9,000 'earmarks' are posted online with a Congress person's name attached so you can decide for yourself. We at least appreciate the transparency.

As we mentioned earlier, Mr. Gingrich was part of today's panel that also included "Lords of Finance" author Liaquat Ahamed; CNBC's Erin Burnett; and editor-in-chief of U.S. News & World Report Mort Zuckerman. If the lack of bluster from the former speaker was not sobering enough, it was Mr. Ahamed who started the conversation off by flatly stating that a depression certainly could happen again.

As Mr. Gingrich pointed out, this is not politics as usual, that it has been 80 years - three generations - since something like this has happened and the consensus around the table was that President Obama is taking the Roosevelt New Deal approach and throwing a ton out there and seeing what sticks. What else is he supposed to do? It is all too much for people to digest, Ms. Burnett mused, but what she failed to say is that the American people are, by this time, desensitized to all these numbers. At this point, just do whatever it takes, right?

We started today's column with a sliver of good news so we figured we'd end it the same way. The silver lining for the United States is that this abysmal state we're in is global baby, everyone's cutting their losses and walking away - no one's exempt. And we're not getting the worse of it. Imagine living on an island in the Northern Atlantic in the winter, a five-hour plane ride from the continent, where no money comes out of the ATM with jobs and food in short supply. That describes Iceland, which just for fact sake, has a 99% literacy rate. At least the U.S. isn't that.

Sunday, March 01, 2009

3.1.09: Without Lug Nuts

Every week of the Obama Presidency so far has brought a new big pronouncement with this as no exception. President Obama outlined our withdrawal plans for Iraq so our cudos to the Executive Producer, Betsy Fischer, for securing the exclusive with Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, for today's Meet The Press.

The essentials of the plan are that by August 2010, our combat brigades will be drawn down and a residual force of 50,000 (a 'weigh station' to get to zero is how Gates described it) will remain until we pull out completely for 2011. Secretary Gates also provided the caveat that the President reserves the right to alter this plan if the situation on the ground dictates otherwise. And the reality is that no matter what the conditions on the ground, the United States will have troops in Iraq for years to come. It's an obvious necessity really. Special operations to quell Al Qaeda, sectarian violence, and Iranian influence. Today, Sec. Gates described a successful ending to the Iraq theater as having a stable government and country that is an ally of the United States. This isn't unrealistic if we don't genuinely assist the Iraqis in more practical matters. If we were to make great strides in helping the Iraqis rebuild their infrastructure as we withdrawal, we'll have an ally. The Bush Administration's rebuilding plan was essentially a money grab for company's friendly to former Vice President Cheney.

It's completely exasperating because the United States have poured billions upon billions into rebuilding and conditions are still not comparable to the Saddam era. And to ask the American people to have the wherewithal for a re-doubled effort on Iraq while our own infrastructure is in the CPU is just too much.

But here we are... and Mexico is to the south, which was a substantive change of tact by Mr. Gregory. The Mexican drug wars have practically turned that country into a police state, and the police are losing. It is a grave security threat along the United States' southern border and is now a matter of national security.

Secretary Gates initially pointed out that President Calderon for the first time is taking on the Drug Lords, hence the gruesome increase in violence. This begs the question what was President Bush's friend Vincente Fox doing? A 'Good Job Brownie' episode we suspect. However, the Secretary then eluded the support we would give to Mexico. He didn't say no to Mr. Gregory's question with regard to use of the military. He said support, training, surveillance, intelligence... Basically, that translates into the United States soon having a policy with Mexico as it is Columbia where we have substantial military resources allocated for the War on Drugs.

There are hard choices to be made and so far, President Obama has addressed quite a few of them, but according to Joe Scarborough, Host of 'Morning Joe' and one of the program's guests, he's made none with respect to the budget. In short order - first, he's wrong and second, he's not a good guest and shouldn't be on the program again. Meet The Press is for candid and thoughtful discussion, not bluster. However, what he points to is the budget deficits, which are staggering in size and for the duration for which we'll endure them. Spelled out, that means a $1.75 trillion deficit next year, a trillion dollars the year after, and then $500 billion for an undetermined amount of years. And as the former Congressman from Tennessee, Harold Ford, astutely pointed out, he'll have a political price to pay if he doesn't get this straightened out in four years. You think?

But there is Republican Strategist, Mike Murphy to save the day. With regard to the Republicans' collective floundering right now, he likened the party to a group of enuchs invited to a wild party at the Playboy Mansion who can just stand there. Now that's analysis! In all seriousness, he's also right that the Republicans have to come up with a plan of their own. So yes, there will be a political price Obama may pay, but to what alternative. Tax Cuts and military spending will not lead to a cure. This is an uninspired, stale idea and that's all the Republicans have to offer right now. Their issue as Mr. Murphy put it is to modernize conservative principals, in other words to convey a sense that the Republican Party is more in touch with the people. This is fine for discussion, but while the Republicans try to find themselves, the rest of the country is check to check if they're fortunate to have one.

The wheels without lug nuts are in motion and Republicans with knife in hand are eyeing the tires. If they continue this trajectory and do not become reasonable, not only will they loose their supports, they'll also put the rest of us on the skids.