Sunday, May 25, 2008

5.25.08; What's the Meaning of June?

Paraphrasing Maureen Dowd, Hilly Clinton is acting creepy. This is essentially where the conversation started and then eventually came full circle in the first half of the program. This seems to be becoming a loose trend; Senator Clinton makes a statement and then at the very least later has to explain the context. This is it was invoking the June '68 assassination of Robert Kennedy in relation to her campaign. Ms. Dowd continued that Mrs. Clinton doesn't hope for any bodily harm to Senator Obama, but she is waiting for something dreadful to befall him.

Ruth Marcus did not see it as calculated a comment as the others. She attributed it to exhaustion and self-pity, and this combination results in political gaffes. The self-pity stems from what the Clintons claim is sexism and gender-bias in the campaign. Before we leap into that, just a note on self-pity. A person may have self-pity but showing it attempts to invoke sympathy for the person. Hillary Clinton asking us for our sympathy is sad and she's not going to get it. So this column respectfully disagrees with Ms. Marcus.

The Clintons' invocations are always carefully calculated. Apologists would explain that bringing RFK was a mistake and that she could have used the Reagan-Ford primary race for example. Well, why didn't she? With regard to sexism, Ms. Dowd opined that Senator Clinton's statements, while using words like misogyny, actually do a disservice to feminism. She went on to explain that when as First Lady, Mrs. Clinton made this same argument when her health care plan failed and now that her campaign is failing, we're seeing this argument again. She called it Sharptonism - constantly wrapping oneself into side of the victim. And now that her campaign has faltered, she is doing it again. But as pointed out, it was her shortsighted strategy that was her downfall. The race didn't end on February 5th as she counted on.

[Usually when Maureen Dowd appears on the program, more times then not, the rest of the panel adopts her opinion. Mr. Russert mentioned that it was a special edition of MTP and, indeed, it was. Maureen Dowd's wit coupled with Jon Meacham's astuteness, augmented with Gwen Ifill's intuition, and put into perspective by Doris Kearns Goodwin is a two-fold success - entertaining and insightful.]

So will Senator Clinton get out of the race in June and what is she angling to get? As Jon Meacham succinctly put it, What's the meaning of June? At this point, the media and Clinton surrogates are chattering about the V.P. Office. Hasn't this column said this before - Senator Hillary Clinton will not be the Vice Presidential Candidate for the Democratic Party in November 2008. What does make sense is Hillary Clinton being the President of Senate. Now, this is one of the roles of the V.P., but The Clinton's in that office reeks of subversion of the Presidency. The best she is going to get is a sweet cabinet post. However, the problem with this is that Madame Albright and Madame Rice, pretty much have spoiled the Secretary of State role so what's left? Secretary of Defense? Hillary Clinton doing her best Margaret Thatcher routine could work. The irony that the Democrats, traditionally viewed as weak on defense, would put a woman in the top war post. Senator Clinton is hawkish - this is common knowledge so why not employ it to a positive result?

The other irony touched on during today's program is the discussion about how Senator Barack Obama is inaccurately portrayed, especially with regard to race and religion. It's ironic that so many cast Mr. Obama as un-American when in reality he is the ultimate American. He is the first one who is most like a mix of all of us to get this close to the office of Presidency. In this country, every child at one point or another is told that anything is possible and you can be what ever you want to be. Now, we see the fruition of generation after generation telling their kids that, happening right in front of us, we should be pinching ourselves, but instead the focus revolves around the others who harbor more insidious intentions.

This all brings us back to Mrs. Clinton's creepiness. Misconceptions about Barack Obama become difficult to completely defend by the campaign when the candidate is fighting battles on two fronts - McCain to the starboard and Clinton to port (well, pretty much starboard as well, but for the sake of the nautical analogy...). Is Mrs. Clinton hoping that on one of the fronts, the Obama defense will crack? They said on today's program that in politics you should neither invoke assassinations or The Nazis. Ok, but in WWII, there was this big military power fighting a war on two fronts and they lost. The difference is that that was a good thing.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

5.11.08: By The Way, There Is Only One Kind of Math

It's easy to say that Senator Chris Dodd did not get equal time on today's program because he didn't. However, his argument is a lot easier to make. Barack Obama is going to be the nominee for the Democratic Party. It would have been difficult for Mr. Russert to grill him in anyway since he was on air last Tuesday essentially calling the primary race for Obama. In classic (subscribed) fashion, the numbers were presented and and there should be little discrepancy, but unlike every other discipline where the numbers (the math) don't lie, political math spawns dozens of anti-Einsteins.

This brings us to Terry McAuliffe who followed Sen. Dowd. First, it must be stated that one of the goals of this column is to maintain an objective with regard to the show and its guests. Mr. McAuliffe, as chairman of the Clinton campaign, is wound so tightly to an agenda and his own sense of reality that he, and it is now obviously the Clintons as well, have lost the sense of what the Democratic Party stands for. This column is not saying it is this way, but it does seem that the Clintons are solely concerned with grabbing the power of the Presidential Office, all else be damned. The most immediate example comes from Mr. McAuliffe on today's program who kept injecting the vote tallies of Michigan and Florida into the overall scheme when in Michigan Sen. Obama's name was not even of the ballot (for reasons we already know). It's President Bush's fuzzy math and everyone has a different number. Another example came this week from Sen. Clinton in discussing white American voters with USA Today. Her statements can only leave one dumbfounded. With these kinds of statements, there can be no room allowed for the Clintons to wonder why they are seen as divisive. It has been going on throughout the campaign, but these are the latest examples.

This column may have already stated this, but it seems that with every election cycle we learn of a new term or variable that effects the outcome of an election and not usually for the better. Remember chads? Well, this primary it's all about Superdelegates. In 2004, I don't remember discussing superdelegates, or in 2000 for that matter, but here they are capable of souring the popular vote. The Clintons are counting on these superdelegates and President Bill Clinton is calling in every favor. However, this where the endorsement by Gov. Bill Richardson again comes into play. As we've said, it is the only endorsement that matters. Gov. Richardson's (a superdelegate) endorsement of Sen. Obama sends a strong signal that those favors being called in may not be what's best for the Democratic Party and the country. Like Lech Walesa and Solidarity, Richardson could prove to be the fence jumper.

When Mr. Russert asked every individual on the panel who will get the nomination, it was unanimous for Senator Obama. One of this week's guests, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, made the observation that there is a willingness by the superdelegates to have Sen. Clinton play on in the campaign, but if he campaign goes nuclear [read: ultra-negative], then the superdelegates will end it in a big way. It is an inevitability that both of these things will happen, exacerbated further by this Tuesday's primary in West Virginia and Kentucky. Another of Mr. Cillizza's observation's was that Sen. Clinton is now seen as a flawed messenger, citing the example of the gas tax - a political band-aid for the out-of-control rise of gasoline. This column agrees with Mr. Cillizza, but would take it a step further in that this column has seen Mrs. Clinton that way all along. And speaking of the gasoline tax, Sen. Obama is correct in his assessment that lifting that tax would cripple the repair of roads and highway Infrastructure, but how about having it apply only to independent truckers - the ones who are ultimately hit the hardest?

What was Clinton fatigue in 2000, became Clinton nostaglia in 2005 and now the cycle has completed itself as we are back to fatigue. The difference now is that fatigue is most felt by Democrats. And as Mr. Russert animatedly pointed out, Sen. Obama is running against The Clintons! As John Harwood pointed out, George W. Bush has been the greatest unifier of the Democratic Party, but we are seeing it ripped apart at the seams. So much so that the notion being thrown about of an Obama/Clinton is as likely as the theory of intelligent design. The universe had been expanding for millions of years before any type of humanoid developed. It's proven through math, of which there is only one kind. Unfortunately for us, every politician has a different equation.